1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Scottie16]

I felt terrible for him. It’s hard to read these mods and see our snow disappear, I can’t imagine being on here living in Halls watching it rain and reading about Maynardville 15 minutes away having 8+ inches of snow.


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I still feel bad because it’s been awhile for Tellico to see a pretty decent snow. I was hoping he would cash in this go around.


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[Greyhound]

My wife just reminded me that I posted this on Facebook 10 years ago today. I guess history does repeat itself……


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[fountainguy97]

How much accumulation do you think WTN and WNC sees from this?
I typically say half of this map but their temps are 20-25 for the duration for both areas of ZR.

 

Rates are not insanely heavy .1-.15 an hour

[Scottie16]

HHHR up to bat


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[Brocksterdanza]

How much of an ice impact do we see now for the central and southern valley. Does anyone else not believe those surface temps get that high?


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[fountainguy97]

I believe we may be seeing the typical pattern of strengthening the CAD in the short term. 
 

the more that high unifies the less of a path north that low has. GFS squeezes the low east because its Hp is stronger. 

[Mrwolf1972]

Hrrr at max

[GBOVolz]

Hrrr at max

That’s not far off the UK


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[*Flash*]

6z RDPS seems reasonable. The difference b/t 10:1 and Kuchera likely outlines the places that could see the most sleet. 

[ShawnEastTN]

I think for East Tennessee this storm will be in many ways similar to the January snow in 24. In that storm areas closer to the mountains got robbed but as you approached the I-75, I-40/I-81 corridor you got to meaningful snow accumulations. If you are closer to the mountains you got too much downslope. For this storm I could see it be similar but instead of snow it will be primarily freezing rain. One key difference this time though I do think CAD will do the wrap around back into Tennessee from North Georgia, not super common but has happened before, with that southern areas like Chattanooga and Cleveland could get more than expected in general of course not snow but ice. That CAD wrap around could also keep the valley away from the mountains colder longer in general as it gets pumped back north by southerly flow. That's my thoughts for East Tennessee valley. Plateau West definitely need to prepare for long duration event for sure, and western and northern great valley I believe is in the same boat with long duration ice event.

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[Wurbus]

I've officially given up on this storm for Knoxville. I think it might start out as a little snow, switch to sleet/freezing rain, and then end as a cold rain that will, hopefully, melt any sleet/freezing rain accumulation we receive. While the end result has been disappointing, it has been fun tracking the storm with everyone! I'm going to have nightmares the next time I hear the term "baja low"!  

[Windspeed]

Just want to thank everyone for their input and analysis the past few days. I am worried about the duration of the freezing rain event for KTRI. I am now just hoping all hope for significant downsloping to get surface temps above freezing. I have thrown in the towel for snow. Yes, we may still see 3 to 4 inches here. But it will not be fun if the ice accumulation occurs. The grid here can't handle anything over .5, God forbid .75, without greatly increasing the scale of damage to infrastructure. I am hopeful that a change over to heavy rain could result in significant melting before strong NW surface flow hits.

[Save the itchy algae!]

I think for East Tennessee this storm will be in many ways similar to the January snow in 24. In that storm areas closer to the mountains got robbed but as you approached the I-75, I-40/I-81 corridor you got to meaningful snow accumulations. If you are closer to the mountains you got too much downslope. For this storm I could see it be similar but instead of snow it will be primarily freezing rain. One key difference this time though I do think CAD will do the wrap around back into Tennessee from North Georgia, not super common but has happened before, with that southern areas like Chattanooga and Cleveland could get more than expected in general of course not snow but ice. That CAD wrap around could also keep the valley away from the mountains colder longer in general as it gets pumped back north by southerly flow. That's my thoughts for East Tennessee valley. Plateau West definitely need to prepare for long duration event for sure, and western and northern great valley I believe is in the same boat with long duration ice event.

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I’m tracking with this other than you saying the predominant ptype being freezing rain. Think the models are over selling the freezing rain aspect due to modeled lower surface temps but the other ingredients aren’t really there for a ton of icing other than in transition. We’ll see.. especially if/when CAD sets in as that could stir things up.

[housemtnTN]

14 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

I think for East Tennessee this storm will be in many ways similar to the January snow in 24. In that storm areas closer to the mountains got robbed but as you approached the I-75, I-40/I-81 corridor you got to meaningful snow accumulations. If you are closer to the mountains you got too much downslope. For this storm I could see it be similar but instead of snow it will be primarily freezing rain. One key difference this time though I do think CAD will do the wrap around back into Tennessee from North Georgia, not super common but has happened before, with that southern areas like Chattanooga and Cleveland could get more than expected in general of course not snow but ice. That CAD wrap around could also keep the valley away from the mountains colder longer in general as it gets pumped back north by southerly flow. That's my thoughts for East Tennessee valley. Plateau West definitely need to prepare for long duration event for sure, and western and northern great valley I believe is in the same boat with long duration ice event.

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I ended up with 10 or 11 inches the morning after that event. Way waaaay more than forecast.

[ShawnEastTN]

Just now, housemtnTN said:

I ended up with 10 or 11 inches the morning after that event. Way waaaay more than forecast.

Same here about 10 inches.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, fountainguy97 said:

I believe we may be seeing the typical pattern of strengthening the CAD in the short term. 
 

the more that high unifies the less of a path north that low has. GFS squeezes the low east because its Hp is stronger. 

Bingo.

[Carvers Gap]

7 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Just want to thank everyone for their input and analysis the past few days. I am worried about the duration of the freezing rain event for KTRI. I am now just hoping all hope for significant downsloping to get surface temps above freezing. I have thrown in the towel for snow. Yes, we may still see 3 to 4 inches here. But it will not be fun if the ice accumulation occurs. The grid here can't handle anything over .5, God forbid .75, without greatly increasing the scale of damage to infrastructure. I am hopeful that a change over to heavy rain could result in significant melting before strong NW surface flow hits.

The 12z NAM was rough for TRI.

[Mrwolf1972]

Icon staying freezing rain in valley out to 66 actually whole system I have freezing rain in loudon

[Mrwolf1972]

12z Nam ice

[Mrwolf1972]

Nam has lp cutting midle TN not seen that on any model 

[Mrwolf1972]

Rdps 12z

[*Flash*]

7 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Nam has lp cutting middle TN not seen that on any model 

Yeah, I'm not sure I completely buy the 12 NAM. 

[*Flash*]

Per ChatGPT…

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z ICON has the CAD event wrapping back into SE TN.  Heavy rain(not sure if storms) falling into below freezing temps w/ heavy ZR.  All three short range models have trend some southward and cooler.  

[BlunderStorm]

9 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

12z Nam ice

I can hardly fathom an outcome worse than this (for this system). Crippling ice in my neck of the woods that run. Gives me dread but I can't help but be amused. Lucie got me. She got all of us.

[Carvers Gap]

11 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Nam has lp cutting midle TN not seen that on any model 

On WxBell, it has trended colder.  Slide the freezing line south one county and ditto run to 6z.

[Windspeed]

The 12z NAM was rough for TRI.

You hate to see it, Carver. We still hold some cards. But it's getting dangerously close to the event. I will say we've been very lucky the past three to four decades regarding heavy ice accumulations. I think it was even '77 or '78 the last time KTRI saw icing on a scale that could play out in this event. Hopefully, it does not.

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

I can hardly fathom an outcome worse than this (for this system). Crippling ice in my neck of the woods that run. Gives me dread but I can't help but be amused. Lucie got me. She got all of us.

For sure.  You can see where the cold is banking up against the Plateau on the east side of the Valley.  @Daniel Boone, that is your country.  With all three short range models cooling off...could be a problem. The HH hunter Twitter poster noted it might take several runs for data to impact things.  I also think Fountain made a good point...CAD highs on modeling tend to strengthen as they get closer to events and models can better depict the surface.  I do think that "might" be happening on our side of the Apps as well.  I need to dig a bit more...but the warm nose looked less intense across modeling or maybe just less durations.  I also wonder if the vortices and air masses are getting better sampled as they get closer.

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

23 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z NAM was rough for TRI.

You hate to see it, Carver. We still hold some cards. But it's getting dangerously close to the event. I will say we've been very lucky the past three to four decades regarding heavy ice accumulations. I think it was even '77 or '78 the last time KTRI saw icing on a scale that could play out in this event. Hopefully, it does not.

Flirting with trouble for sure if models continue to cool off.