1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Weatheriscool]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

12z Euro:

Looks like I need to start preparing for an ice storm instead of snow smh

[housemtnTN]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

12z Euro:

Oh no.

[John1122]

The LP on the AI tracks from Mobile to the Apps, about 100 miles SE of the main Euro. The AI tends to win these battles over the last year.

[Carvers Gap]

Welp.  Guess we are now tracking an ice storm.

[Scottie16]

First time seeing this booger at 72.


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[tnweathernut]

Incredibly (when thinking about where northeast TN was sitting just a handful of runs ago, the 12z Euro drives low 40's surface temps along the spine of the apps in Greene and Washington County around lunch Saturday.  Downslope is alive and well at 12z.  North and west of 81 would stay in the low to mid 30s.

[tnweathernut]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Welp.  Guess we are now tracking an ice storm.

South and East of 81 may dodge this..........thankfully

 

[Tucker1027]

Chattanooga will be tracking flooding


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here's the AIFS for interested parties. 

[Greyhound]

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[bearman]

4 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Incredibly (when thinking about where northeast TN was sitting just a handful of runs ago, the 12z Euro drives low 40's surface temps along the spine of the apps in Greene and Washington County around lunch Saturday.  Downslope is alive and well at 12z.  North and west of 81 would stay in the low to mid 30s.

This is why I never get excited before we are 12 hours out, and then it is with measured excitement. At the same time, I don't jump off a cliff until them either if there is any hope.

[BNAwx]

I’d rather have a sleet storm than ice but I obviously don’t get a say in the matter.  If I did, we’d get the 15” of snow the models were showing a couple days ago.  

[Hillbilly]

Maybe it's just me, but it is hard for me to believe the temp goes from 17 degrees at 12z to 40 degrees at 18z on the 24th in upper ETN. I'm not putting money on the rain melting the ice away...

[John1122]

When heavy precip is falling and ice is all over everything, it's much harder to warm surface temps than models indicate. Especially in deep valleys.

[tnweathernut]

2 minutes ago, Hillbilly said:

Maybe it's just me, but it is hard for me to believe the temp goes from 17 degrees at 12z to 40 degrees at 18z on the 24th in upper ETN. I'm not putting money on the rain melting the ice away...

I've learned over the years since moving here in the 1990s to never discount winds rolling into the valley from the mountains.  Worst miss I ever saw was in the 90's (early 90s).  I remember listening to a weather radio in my dorm at ETSU the day before a big snow storm.  12-16 inches of snow was in the forecast and right before going to bed I listened and the NWS updated the forecast to be 16-20".  The next day it rained.  Not even that much.................  was a total bust.  I didn't know it at the time, but it was downslope that not only warmed us into the upper 30's and low 40s, but it also cut the amount of precip that actually fell by 90%.  

[waltrip]

Maybe it's just me, but it is hard for me to believe the temp goes from 17 degrees at 12z to 40 degrees at 18z on the 24th in upper ETN. I'm not putting money on the rain melting the ice away...

I live in Greene County at foot of mountains. I’ve definitely seen the downsloping winds warm up the air and play havoc with our potential winter storms time and time again.

I’ve seen downsloping winds have Greeneville sitting at 45 and no precipitation and 10 miles north in Baileyton it’s 32 and snowing.

Downsloping winds have been the snow killer (warmer temps, no precipitation) for us here many, many times.


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[Hillbilly]

When the rain falls on the pavement, even if the air temperature rises above freezing, those paved surfaces don't heat up at the rate the air does. It will be a f'n mess, that model hasn't factored any of that into its assessment.

[tnweathernut]

Middle Tennessee, north of I-40 (to the north and west of Nashville) looks to be a disaster zone on the 12z Euro.  6" of snow and .5-1.00 inch of ice.

[Carvers Gap]

13 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

South and East of 81 may dodge this..........thankfully

 

Maybe.

[Mrwolf1972]

The eps has heavier snow over Kentucky and northern TN the euro is Ohio is that correct on that run at 12zso ensembles is more south then op cause euro shows no snow in valley but eps says 3-4 

[Carvers Gap]

I would strongly suggest you all also use the ensembles.   They have some interesting things embedded...a bit more snow.  The 12z EPS shifted the snow axis about 1.5 counties south.  The beginning of the Euro was also colder...sometimes the beginning of the scenario is more accurate due to it being closer in time...if it continues to cool and move precip southward near the start time in Texarkana...could be a sign the model is adjusting on the fly.  We have seen that entry point into our forum change like that....and it has big implications down stream.  I think for NE TN, we see 2-3" of snow followed by ice...know your microclimate.  Also, interestingly....models are not showing a lot of mercy to the foothills regions w/ downslope.  

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

The eps has heavier snow over Kentucky and northern TN the euro is Ohio is that correct on that run at 12zso ensembles is more south then op cause euro shows no snow in valley but eps says 3-4 

And any snow cover may make it difficult to get those temps above freezing.  Yes...I had just posted the same thing.  Good catch.

[Tucker1027]

2 pm briefing

Heaviest Snow North of Knoxville
Heaviest Ice in south portions of area

60% to 80% chance of at least 1 inch of meltwater

Onset by 7 am on Saturday (medium confidence)

Thinking it will start as snow then warm nose will show up

Probability of 3 inches of snow
Chattanooga - 10%
Knoxville -55%
Tri-Cities - 70%

Over 8 inches

Knoxville -15%
Tri-Citis - 25%

Probability of Freezing Rain >.25

Chattanooga - 60%
Knoxville -25%
Tri-cities - 15%


Probability of Freezing Rain >.50

Chattanooga 20%


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[GBOVolz]

2 pm briefing

Heaviest Snow North of Knoxville
Heaviest Ice in south portions of area

60% to 80% chance of at least 1 inch of meltwater

Onset by 7 am on Saturday (medium confidence)

Thinking it will start as snow then warm nose will show up

Probability of 3 inches of snow
Chattanooga - 10%
Knoxville -55%
Tri-Cities - 70%

Over 8 inches

Knoxville -15%
Tri-Citis - 25%

Probability of Freezing Rain >.25

Chattanooga - 60%
Knoxville -25%
Tri-cities - 15%


Probability of Freezing Rain >.50

Chattanooga 20%


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This isn’t good but not terrible either, especially for north of Knoxville


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[TellicoWx]

Even on the warmest model..the damage is already done in the lowest valley locations before the switchover.

[*Flash*]

18 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Middle Tennessee, north of I-40 (to the north and west of Nashville) looks to be a disaster zone on the 12z Euro.  6" of snow and .5-1.00 inch of ice.

I'm in White Bluff. Really hoping we don't see that much freezing rain. ✌️ 

[Tucker1027]

NWS Cont.

Too far out to know exactly how it’s going to handled the Arctic Cold

[Weatheriscool]

Just now, *Flash* said:

I'm in White Bluff. Really hoping we don't see that much freezing rain. ✌️ 

Hopefully that can stay out of Sumner county 

[TellicoWx]

This is reminding somewhat of the mid 2010s (cant remember exact year) where foothills of Monroe Co were spared but Madisonville/Sweetwater are were out of power for a week

[Tucker1027]

Our in house met… says he thinks temps on euro are 3-4 degrees too warm..

Also, talking about cold air getting trapped by mountains


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