1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Carvers Gap]

Definitely northerly trends by the AIFS and Euro at 18z in terms of sensible weather over the Valley.  AIFS moved two counties to the north and the Euro moved four.  The AIFS, after trending well south of its original solution, is back north to its original track.  The trend makes sense given that over running events often trend north.  The problem is ice and lots of it.   If it is going to rain…we had better hope this makes another jog north into those big highs.  I think big trouble is brewing if we can’t get this to warm up.
 

It is possible that our vortex is either in a blind spot at high latitudes or got sampled better.  I have nod idea which,  could be additional data or the absence of data.  

[Matthew70]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Definitely northerly trends by the AIFS and Euro at 18z in terms of sensible weather over the Valley.  AIFS moved two counties to the north and the Euro moved four.  The AIFS, after trending well south of its original solution, is back north to its original track.  The trend makes sense given that over running events often trend north.  The problem is ice and lots of it.   If it is going to rain…we had better hope this makes another jog north into those big highs.  I think big trouble is brewing if we can’t get this to warm up.
 

It is possible that our vortex is either in a blind spot at high latitudes or got sampled better.  I have nod idea which,  could be additional data or the absence of data.  

Give me all rain if not going to snow. 

[Daniel Boone]

47 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

I really don’t want to see Bam take a victory lap. 

He already is. Gloating on X saying look for it to tick further North. 

[Matthew70]

My brother said news casts are already backing up on the big snowfall. 

[Scottie16]

He already is. Gloating on X saying look for it to tick further North. 

It cannot go any further north lmfao. I’m surprised anyone is buying what the euro is selling. Taking that low and backing up two Siberian highs.


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[Scottie16]

My brother said news casts are already backing up on the big snowfall. 

Newscast never bought in? They’ve been nothing but hesitant.


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[Matthew70]

1 minute ago, Scottie16 said:

Newscast never bought in? They’ve been nothing but hesitant.


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Just repeating what he said.  No idea which newscast.

[Daniel Boone]

Another slap in the face for the Forum. It'll go North. Coming out strong so going to Cut. Big time Oh.Valley Crush like December '04. May settle a bit further South and hammer Kentucky from London and points North and West. Another similar Analogy would be the January '94 Storm. 

[Scottie16]

Definitely northerly trends by the AIFS and Euro at 18z in terms of sensible weather over the Valley.  AIFS moved two counties to the north and the Euro moved four.  The AIFS, after trending well south of its original solution, is back north to its original track.  The trend makes sense given that over running events often trend north.  The problem is ice and lots of it.   If it is going to rain…we had better hope this makes another jog north into those big highs.  I think big trouble is brewing if we can’t get this to warm up.
 
It is possible that our vortex is either in a blind spot at high latitudes or got sampled better.  I have nod idea which,  could be additional data or the absence of data.  

I think it’s just one of those wonky runs. Phase happened at 66 hours. Also, the UKMET trended away from the solution that the Euro is suggesting.


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[Scottie16]

Another slap in the face for the Forum. It'll go North. Coming out strong so going to Cut. Big time Oh.Valley Crush like December '04. May settle a bit further South and hammer Kentucky from London and points North and West. Another similar Analogy would be the January '94 Storm. 

I think we see more suppression instead of a cut.


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[Stovepipe]

6 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

My brother said news casts are already backing up on the big snowfall. 

[Scottie16]

Just repeating what he said.  No idea which newscast.

All good brother


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[Matthew70]

4 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

That’s some cold water!!!

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, Matthew70 said:

That’s some cold water!!!

At least we should get plenty of that. We need the moisture as water levels are running low.

[ShawnEastTN]

Odds are the Euro doesn't triple phase at 0z and we are closer to the last 10 runs of it. 

Agree, its not exactly rare to see these big swings at this point in the tracking, not a trend until minimum 2 similar runs but really 3. Until then not buying it.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[*Flash*]

14 hours ago, Reb said:

OP looks real nice. What could go wrong? 

 

Grrrr…

[fountainguy97]

Let's see what 00z has for us. But yea this one may be "on the ropes" if you love snow.

One thing I've seen many times with big events is models over-trending in this 3.5-4.5 day period. And then adjust back a few ticks closer in. 
 

This is a good reminder for myself that worrying about it will do nothing but give you bags under your eyes and ruin your day.  We have no control.

[Save the itchy algae!]

I’m afraid I may have jinxed things earlier when I was talking about how it’ll be a rain/snow/both/none situation for the Central Valley via climatology. Now the heat miser is trying to show up. I will self ban for 24 hours in the hopes to get things back on track for

[*Flash*]

10 minutes ago, Save the itchy algae! said:

I’m afraid I may have jinxed things earlier when I was talking about how it’ll be a rain/snow/both/none situation for the Central Valley via climatology. Now the heat miser is trying to show up. I will self ban for 24 hours in the hopes to get things back on track for

You're good, Itchy. Our hopeless hopium is the real enemy. Can't wait for my quarter inch of ice!

[Mrwolf1972]

Why does Everyone Jump on one run just don't understand 3 days still to go you are acting like it's Friday already modeling sat

[Daniel Boone]

Webb gave his view on why the Model's trended North. The backing west of the trough into Western Canada. I noticed that awhile ago and was thinking that may be having an effect. It's on X if anyone cares to look. We need a stronger press from HP to our NW or due North to Counter. If not, we may find ourselves firmly in the great Valley warm slot while hefty Snows fall west, North and East of us. Mid and West Tennessee may come out well with this after all , while the great Valley doesn't. Areas east of the Apps may get enough Cad for them to do well. I've saw that Scenario play out many times. Not being a Debbie downer, just presenting a pretty real possibility.

[Hurricaneguy]

1 minute ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Why does Everyone Jump on one run just don't understand 3 days still to go you are acting like it's Friday already modeling sat

Because when most of us have been thinking this is too good to be true for days now are ready to flip at the first sign of bust lol. If the 00z goes back we’ll be like what 18z 

[GBOVolz]

Why does Everyone Jump on one run just don't understand 3 days still to go you are acting like it's Friday already modeling sat

Because climatology is a lot like Las Vegas…… They win a lot more than they lose but they don’t win every one of them.


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[brewman22001]

I think we see more suppression instead of a cut.


.

Actually, I don’t think they know what it’s gonna do. It’s changed every run, so until we’re 12 hours out from it, I’m not buying into anything. I’ve learned that if you don’t like the weather here wait five minutes it’ll change.. I’ve already bought two things of milk and a lot of vanilla flavoring and sugar for the tons of snow cream I was gonna make. We need to tell this system I’m already too bought into it.


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[John1122]

4 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Webb gave his view on why the Model's trended North. The backing west of the trough into Western Canada. I noticed that awhile ago and was thinking that may be having an effect. It's on X if anyone cares to look. We need a stronger press from HP to our NW or due North to Counter. If not, we may find ourselves firmly in the great Valley warm slot while hefty Snows fall west, North and East of us. Mid and West Tennessee may come out well with this after all , while the great Valley doesn't. Areas east of the Apps may get enough Cad for them to do well. I've saw that Scenario play out many times. Not being a Debbie downer, just presenting a pretty real possibility.

That piece of Montana energy has been there, but it doesn't get connected with the Baja energy on the good runs today. On 18z it did and three pieces phased. It could be the final look, but triple phasers are rare. That said, your area still got huge snow totals on the 18z from what I could tell. I did decently as well. If you'd told me a week ago that I'd be in like to get 6+ inches of snow with some freezing rain, I'd have jumped on it all day. But once you see 20 inches on a euro run and 15+ across all modeling the perspective changes. Its rare to get chances at truly historic snow events. 

[ShawnEastTN]

4 minutes ago, brewman22001 said:

Actually, I don’t think they know what it’s gonna do. It’s changed every run, so until we’re 12 hours out from it, I’m not buying into anything. I’ve learned that if you don’t like the weather here wait five minutes it’ll change.. I’ve already bought two things of milk and a lot of vanilla flavoring and sugar for the tons of snow cream I was gonna make. We need to tell this system I’m already too bought into it.


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Should have hedged your bets and bought some fruit slushy syrup to make an snow cone with sleet and freezing rain.  Agree though need to get closer to event to fully trust.

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

That piece of Montana energy has been there, but it doesn't get connected with the Baja energy on the good runs today. On 18z it did and three pieces phased. It could be the final look, but triple phasers are rare. That said, your area still got huge snow totals on the 18z from what I could tell. I did decently as well. If you'd told me a week ago that I'd be in like to get 6+ inches of snow with some freezing rain, I'd have jumped on it all day. But once you see 20 inches on a euro run and 15+ across all modeling the perspective changes. Its rare to get chances at truly historic snow events. 

Eps Ensemble drops Totals here to just 3-4" of slop. Shoots that warm nose all the way to the Ky, Va, WV Border. 

[Hurricaneguy]

What’s the 00z NBM totals look like?

[Tucker1027]

[Reb]

Ok peeps, time for 0z and forget about the Euro. NAM is running, onward and forward we go…