1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Wurbus]

Looks like Knoxville already has around 8" at 10:1 ratio before it starts to turn to sleet/ice. I vote we go back to the trends yesterday lol

[Wurbus]

Any other system I'd cash out now, but given what we have seen the past few days on the models I don't want the ice cutting into our precious totals!

[John1122]

The Euro is still a monster. And maybe the worst winter storm ever here, especially if you include the near 3/4th inch of ice it gives the Southern Valley.

 

[jaxjagman]

Maybe that inverted trough wont be as bad in future runs

[Tucker1027]

[John1122]

1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

Maybe that inverted trough wont be as bad in future runs

It seems like they always verify worse than modeled, unfortunately.

[*Flash*]

Can anyone with WeatherBELL access the 12z Euro-AI ensemble plumes for Huntsville? 

[Weatheriscool]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The Euro is still a monster. And maybe the worst winter storm ever here, especially if you include the near 3/4th inch of ice it gives the Southern Valley.

 

I do not think I can recall the "heavy snow" wording this far out in the NWS forecast for Nashville. It is a fine line, no one wants to create a run on the grocery stores but yet at the same time, want to get everyone prepared. 

[*Flash*]

12 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Even with the freezing rain switch, there are 4-8 inches of snow south of 40 it appears.

Right now, I'm thinking 6-8” of combined snow/ice for my location. That will likely adjust in short time. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Hurricane hunters dropsondes planned:

[*Flash*]

Can anyone with WeatherBELL access pull the Euro-AI Ensemble snow total plumes for Huntsville?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Can anyone with WeatherBELL access pull the Euro-AI Ensemble snow total plumes for Huntsville?

[Silas Lang]

10 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The Euro is still a monster. And maybe the worst winter storm ever here, especially if you include the near 3/4th inch of ice it gives the Southern Valley.

 

Agreed on the monster. At this point, while I would absolutely love all snow, I am just preparing for a major event. Seems like we will have a substantial amount of precipitation and cold, just a matter of what type. Prolonged subfreezing temps and 1 to 2 inches of liquid will grind things to a halt here for a bit. 

[Daniel Boone]

As was discussed yesterday, Timing of LP ejection and Strength is crucial in determining evential Track and P Types. Bammwx could turn out to be right or maybe a compromise between that solution and the consensus.

[Save the itchy algae!]

In my short experience in the Central Valley (11 years living here) I don’t really see it as a place prone to ice storms. Southern valley I can understand as it more closely resembles topography I’m familiar with getting ice previously (Lee side apps), as well a thin stretch of the western escarpment of the the northern valley apps, but I tend to think it would take a rather large outlier to bring anything other than snow or rain here in significant amounts. The warm noses that have come into effect here tend to bring rain. I’ve seen some sleet/ice here of course but only transitory. This could be that type of outlier, but my gut tells me the CV will be mostly snow, rain, nothing, or a combo of those three.

On a somewhat separate note somebody mentioned thunder ice earlier and I wanted to share my experience with that.. thunder sleet is quite common, particularly in more arid climates like the western plains but thunder ice (freezing rain) is pretty much impossible. Icing requires generally light precipitation over a period of time without much drainage, even moderate rain will not accrete as ice usually, even at temperatures in the low-mid 20’s at the surface. Now once it stops raining whatever is left on surfaces will freeze, but that’s not the same thing.

Just my 0.02, would like to learn more about previous icing events. The records show that there may have been some in the early 00’s but there’s not much significant data on those. Looks like the last major one was ‘94.

[GBOVolz]

So will we get any dynamic cooling in the 50-50 areas?


.

[Save the itchy algae!]

In my short experience in the Central Valley (11 years living here) I don’t really see it as a place prone to ice storms. Southern valley I can understand as it more closely resembles topography I’m familiar with getting ice previously (Lee side apps), as well a thin stretch of the western escarpment of the the northern valley apps, but I tend to think it would take a rather large outlier to bring anything other than snow or rain here in significant amounts. The warm noses that have come into effect here tend to bring rain. I’ve seen some sleet/ice here of course but only transitory. This could be that type of outlier, but my gut tells me the CV will be mostly snow, rain, nothing, or a combo of those three.

On a somewhat separate note somebody mentioned thunder ice earlier and I wanted to share my experience with that.. thunder sleet is quite common, particularly in more arid climates like the western plains but thunder ice (freezing rain) is pretty much impossible. Icing requires generally light precipitation over a period of time without much drainage, even moderate rain will not accrete as ice usually, even at temperatures in the low-mid 20’s at the surface. Now once it stops raining whatever is left on surfaces will freeze, but that’s not the same thing.

Just my 0.02, would like to learn more about previous icing events. The records show that there may have been some in the early 00’s but there’s not much significant data on those. Looks like the last major one was ‘94.

^ this is a long winded way of me saying I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised with a snow/rain/snow solution ultimately, regardless of what modeling shows.

[GBOVolz]

North of 40 still looks great


.

[ShawnEastTN]

In my short experience in the Central Valley (11 years living here) I don’t really see it as a place prone to ice storms. Southern valley I can understand as it more closely resembles topography I’m familiar with getting ice previously (Lee side apps), as well a thin stretch of the western escarpment of the the northern valley apps, but I tend to think it would take a rather large outlier to bring anything other than snow or rain here in significant amounts. The warm noses that have come into effect here tend to bring rain. I’ve seen some sleet/ice here of course but only transitory. This could be that type of outlier, but my gut tells me the CV will be mostly snow, rain, nothing, or a combo of those three.

On a somewhat separate note somebody mentioned thunder ice earlier and I wanted to share my experience with that.. thunder sleet is quite common, particularly in more arid climates like the western plains but thunder ice (freezing rain) is pretty much impossible. Icing requires generally light precipitation over a period of time without much drainage, even moderate rain will not accrete as ice usually, even at temperatures in the low-mid 20’s at the surface. Now once it stops raining whatever is left on surfaces will freeze, but that’s not the same thing.

Just my 0.02, would like to learn more about previous icing events. The records show that there may have been some in the early 00’s but there’s not much significant data on those. Looks like the last major one was ‘94.

The last major ice storm in our region i recall was in the 2010's but was primarily the upper Cumberland Plateau. Maybe 2014, I don't remember exactly but my local utility Volunteer Electric had folks in Cumberland and Fentress still without power 2 weeks after event. In the valley at least my neck of the woods the last sizable ice storm was either 14 or 15 but it wasn't catastrophic maybe .2 inches. Caused some outages from pine trees falling on lines but nothing widespread.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[nrgjeff]

I'm trying to keep the faith. 

4 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

So will we get any dynamic cooling in the 50-50 areas?

I want to think the GFS could score a coup. Until the energy gets onshore, I'm afraid I have to go with the Euro and all that frickin' ice.

[Hurricaneguy]

I can't help but think we are going to get the shaft again in Greene Co TN. Warm nose will creep in and cut totals down more than half. It drives me crazy how much things have changed in the last ten years or so with these storms. Our region was almost a lock on major snow events prior to the 2010s.  

[nrgjeff]

Yeah the Valley warm nose in the last 15 years rescues Chattanooga (above freezing) but might ice Knox. This one the cold is too deep. If the mid levels stay warm, Chatty's luck has ended.

3 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

The last major ice storm in our region was in the 2010's but was primarily the upper Cumberland Plateau. Maybe 2014, I don't remember exactly but my local utility Volunteer Electric had folks in Cumberland and Fentress still without power 2 weeks after event. In the valley at least my neck of the woods the last sizable ice storm was either 14 or 15 but it wasn't catastrophic maybe .2 inches. Caused some outages from pine trees falling on lines but nothing widespread.

Then the Upper Plateau has that same risk. Instead of elevation helping with snow, it only adds to the cold vs the Lower Valley. Then both are warm aloft. I would like to see one other model besides the GFS get less ice. For now, weekend concerns continue to mount. 

[Save the itchy algae!]

The last major ice storm in our region was in the 2010's but was primarily the upper Cumberland Plateau. Maybe 2014, I don't remember exactly but my local utility Volunteer Electric had folks in Cumberland and Fentress still without power 2 weeks after event. In the valley at least my neck of the woods the last sizable ice storm was either 14 or 15 but it wasn't catastrophic maybe .2 inches. Caused some outages from pine trees falling on lines but nothing widespread.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

No doubt the plateau would be problematic. I’ll look into the ‘14/15 time frame I just don’t recall anything significant offhand. I’m also in Farragut which is the warmest/driest spot in the Central Valley so it could’ve just skirted us.

[Shocker0]

7 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

The last major ice storm in our region i recall was in the 2010's but was primarily the upper Cumberland Plateau. Maybe 2014, I don't remember exactly but my local utility Volunteer Electric had folks in Cumberland and Fentress still without power 2 weeks after event. In the valley at least my neck of the woods the last sizable ice storm was either 14 or 15 but it wasn't catastrophic maybe .2 inches. Caused some outages from pine trees falling on lines but nothing widespread.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

 

That was February 21, 2015. We had 1-2" of ice in Crossville. Most areas around us (outside the plateau) actually got mostly snow I think.

[Carvers Gap]

Decent agreement now.  I have been waiting on the GEM-para to come into alignment.  It did at 0z regarding E TN.

[nrgjeff]

Yup! TVA sent big transmission line crews to help with the distribution system. 

2 minutes ago, Shocker0 said:

That was February 21, 2015. We had 1-2" of ice in Crossville. Most areas around us actually got mostly snow I think.

Some of these models is that, but over a much wider area.

I remember Chatty snow a year ago had ice questions, but I think more than one model had the more snow solution. Need to see that Wednesday, Thursday at the latest - or it's game over.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z EPS MSLPs:

 

12z EPS 850s:

 

12z EPS qpf:

12z EPS snow mean:

12z EPS ice:

 

H5 trend with the Baja low:

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

12z EPS MSLPs:

 

12z EPS 850s:

 

12z EPS qpf:

12z EPS snow mean:

12z EPS ice:

 

H5 trend with the Baja low:

 

 

Follow that up w/ temps that barely get above freezing from Sat-Sat...and that is a big problem.  Some temps almost assuredly will be low single digits or BZ for nighttime lows.  Yikes. 

[nrgjeff]

Those ice amounts check out with the ol' school divide liquid QPF by 3. It would be devasting.

MEM ice probs in Mississippi are 33%+ of a HALF inch which is quite high for Day 5.

BNA has high six-inch snow probs. That's what I'd rather see. Model agreement on this promotes such bullish NWS comms.

[*Flash*]

14 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Decent agreement now.  I have been waiting on the GEM-para to come into alignment.  It did at 0z regarding E TN.

And northern Middle TN as well. The southern adjustment gives me some added confidence.