KChuck Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 24 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: So which model is right? Time for rock, paper, scissors 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 15 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: This is why I stick with GSP NWS. The local media is a joke. I like what someone said above. Models are wrong, but useful. I have a lot of respect for GSP NWS because they use the models as tools and then lean on experience for forecasting. Kendra Kent is more like that. Where Chris J wennies on every single model. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTP Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 10 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: 3K NAM also with more sleet than freezing rain, but more freezing rain than the regular NAM. They both have two rounds of precip for NC. NAM showing a similar scenario to what it was showing at 18z yesterday with P-types... this is a very plausible setup, and I have seen it verify in multiple storms over the years Except for the squall line at the end....looks weird and doesn't smell right given the relatively stable air in the still-existing wedge 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Upstream AFD (Little Rock AR) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 RAP Wow, that might even be less precip than the NAM showed for the triangle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, AirNelson39 said: Wow, that might even be less precip than the NAM showed for the triangle. Yeah, has more precip to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTP Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 11 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Upstream AFD (Little Rock AR) GSP had a mention regarding the hydrometeor portion- warranted bc of how cold surface temps will become during the storm With LR sitting at 10, hard to get anything fully liquid to the ground, even with a powerful warm nose 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Looks like we have major differences between amounts on RAP and NAM compared to HRRR for the Piedmont of NC. Anyone have thoughts on which typically performs better in this scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, AirNelson39 said: Looks like we have major differences between amounts on RAP and NAM compared to HRRR for the Piedmont of NC. Anyone have thoughts on which typically performs better in this scenario? IMO trust the wet guidance on this. Look at the angle of the flow and 700 mb temp advection. We don’t have a dry off ramp. We’re lifting incredibly warm moist air into an anomalous low level dome. No one has talked about this either but in NC, that flow is going to have 3 origin points: leftover Pacific moisture, fresh tap from the gulf and increasing Atlantic flow. Also of note, no guidance had moisture making it to the ground in western NC this morning, so they can’t even nail hyper close range. 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 5 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said: Looks like we have major differences between amounts on RAP and NAM compared to HRRR for the Piedmont of NC. Anyone have thoughts on which typically performs better in this scenario? I'd look at real world observations upstream vs simulated outcomes for each model. That will give you an idea of which model is handling things better. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: IMO trust the wet guidance on this. Look at the angle of the flow and 700 mb temp advection. We don’t have a dry off ramp. We’re lifting incredibly warm moist air into an anomalous low level dome. No one has talked about this either but in NC, that flow is going to have 3 origin points: leftover Pacific moisture, fresh tap from the gulf and increasing Atlantic flow. Also of note, no guidance had moisture making it to the ground in western NC this morning, so they can’t even nail hyper close range. Great analysis 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: IMO trust the wet guidance on this. Look at the angle of the flow and 700 mb temp advection. We don’t have a dry off ramp. We’re lifting incredibly warm moist air into an anomalous low level dome. No one has talked about this either but in NC, that flow is going to have 3 origin points: leftover Pacific moisture, fresh tap from the gulf and increasing Atlantic flow. Also of note, no guidance had moisture making it to the ground in western NC this morning, so they can’t even nail hyper close range. This is a GREAT post! The southeast component to the air flow as the low cuts off to our west some will be noticeable, so increased fetch to Boones point, coupled with other factors outlined. Even if the radar isn’t going crazy at some point freezing drizzle minimum will be happening and accruing at that. Outside of this, I would be careful of weighing other areas with reporting more snow or colder temps to the west of us. Synoptically, things are different, namely for the reasons outlined above with fetch of southeast winds pumping in from the Atlantic/Gulf. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 If we still hear pings at 6 tomorrow morning, Wake county will probably not have a severe ice storm 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Virga has moved over the Winston-Salem area and Northwest North Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I disagree, I think we underperform with precip. Upstream has mostly underperformed. Lower snow totals in Oklahoma. Lighter amounts. Dry air is very deep with this arctic high. I think its an impactful system especially for the foothills, but I dont see the 1.0-1.5 QPF verifying. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 HRRR appears to have less precip in NC this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: I disagree, I think we underperform with precip. Upstream has mostly underperformed. Lower snow totals in Oklahoma. Lighter amounts. Dry air is very deep with this arctic high. I think its an impactful system especially for the foothills, but I dont see the 1.0-1.5 QPF verifying. Also the west to east movement of precipitation won't cut it here east of the Apps today. Downsloping and dry air will= virga until the flow changes more SWly tonight. I think we dont get much precip reaching the ground until closer to 8 pm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwatcherJ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The way this entire storm has unfolded, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the triangle get nothing at all! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Ummm. Ok. Would be nice, but that’s extreme wishing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 We’re also having quite the over performance just to our west so idk. Precip is falling well ahead of schedule. We already have snow just to my west hitting the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The latest RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: The latest RAP. Not even .25 here lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: The latest RAP. That is pretty much a nothing burger for SC and NC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said: That is pretty much a nothing burger for SC and NC New GFS has this by tomorrow morning. Very light 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Even if it's not showing precip, freezing drizzle can still accumulate on surfaces 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, olafminesaw said: Even if it's not showing precip, freezing drizzle can still accumulate on surfaces True but these DPs are super low. It will take time to saturate the atmosphere to the point drizzle can fall 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwatcherJ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I went from 20 inches of snow a week ago to a dusting of sleet, lol. So what’s on tap for next weekend? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: New GFS has this by tomorrow morning. Very light Wow- the one time I’m rooting for a forecast bust! I like hot showers! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now