olafminesaw Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 You could not draw up a better run at 12z than the GFS for Central NC. You don't even see runs like that in fantasy range 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 GFS takes the wedge all the way to the Panhandle almost...Unbelievable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said: This was might thought yesterday morning on where the sweet spot would be 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishbfm Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Someone kick the GFS, it's stuck. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Blocking is winning out on this GFS run. The over running precip is a firehose too. It just keeps going and going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaPilot Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Rare to see the wedge so far SW and W of where I am in most winter set ups. Im almost on top of KFFC, Peachtree city, GA. Normally we are usually right on the line but not with this one on most models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Only caveat to watch with the GFS is that it notoriously struggles with Baja low interactions. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 NC might stay all snow this time except for the SE part of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 My goodness. Still snowing at hr 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Well we all blew through page 22 quickly! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KrummWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Colder aloft too, r/s line went south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Yeah, over 24 hours of snow for most of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 12z gfs 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Good trend but not necessarily one you wanna see too much more of. As GSP put in their morning discussion this is still on the table, albeit low probability. The main point is that yes, the model guidance is signaling for a potential winter storm stretching over the weekend. There is also the possibility for the area of high pressure to extend further south, which also could cutoff precipitation chances entirely. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Its almost like the Baja low is a big old glass of sweet tea stuck to grandma's dining room table and the confluence is sucking out the sweet goodness and pulling it across the SE instead of grabbing it 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Jan 1988 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishbfm Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Great run for all. Rather see it flatter and more south than amped. Much broader precip field extending well to the Southwest into texas. I'm in Currituck North Carolina so it's either rain or snow for me. We don't do ice over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 The p-type radar on GFS in insane. I'd post a gif but I've forgotten how to embed them on here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, phishbfm said: Beat me to it. That is just nuts. Even cutting the QPF in half (which is likely) that's still blanketing most of NC in 7 or 8 inch snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 0z GFS 93h-147h and moisture still coming. WHAT!??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Omg round 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, SnowDawg said: Good trend but not necessarily one you wanna see too much more of. As GSP put in their morning discussion this is still on the table, albeit low probability. The main point is that yes, the model guidance is signaling for a potential winter storm stretching over the weekend. There is also the possibility for the area of high pressure to extend further south, which also could cutoff precipitation chances entirely. Yeah QPF is less but that's the trade-off. It's good when our worries about too suppressed and to amplified are both equally in play. As you allude to, I do think suppression is the bigger concern at this point of the two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 South Carolina gets a whallop before it's said and done with. Columbia look out! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Still snowing in SC, GA and AL at hour 150. Storm lasts for at least 48 hours on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADB83 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Pretty weird to see this much model agreement run after run. Pretty clear at this point there’s gonna be a significant winter event of some kind for North Carolina and other areas in the southeast. Been a long time since an event like this, i’m enjoying the ride(as long as it’s not freezing rain) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 While GFS is overdoing the cold, it’s likely some places in the NC and VA Piedmont will go below zero if there is snow cover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 I think even the GFS can't believe it. It keeps getting stuck. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: I think even the GFS can't believe it. It keeps getting stuck. If you are on Pivotal, I think its a traffic issue. Beta is doing okay 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishbfm Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 This thing goes on so long the gifs are too big to show the whole thing... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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