January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[KChuck]

24 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

So which model is right? 

Time for rock, paper, scissors

[strongwxnc]

.

[Tony Sisk]

15 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

This is why I stick with GSP NWS. The local media is a joke. 

I like what someone said above. Models are wrong, but useful. I have a lot of respect for GSP NWS because they use the models as tools and then lean on experience for forecasting. Kendra Kent is more like that. Where Chris J wennies on every single model.

[DTP]

10 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

3K NAM also with more sleet than freezing rain, but more freezing rain than the regular NAM. They both have two rounds of precip for NC.

 

NAM showing a similar scenario to what it was showing at 18z yesterday with P-types... this is a very plausible setup, and I have seen it verify in multiple storms over the years

Except for the squall line at the end....looks weird and doesn't smell right given the relatively stable air in the still-existing wedge

[USCG RS]

Upstream AFD (Little Rock AR) 

 

[Brick Tamland]

RAP

 

[AirNelson39]

RAP
 

Wow, that might even be less precip than the NAM showed for the triangle.

[Brick Tamland]

Just now, AirNelson39 said:

Wow, that might even be less precip than the NAM showed for the triangle.

Yeah, has more precip to the north.

[DTP]

11 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Upstream AFD (Little Rock AR) 

 

GSP had a mention regarding the hydrometeor portion- warranted bc of how cold surface temps will become during the storm

 

With LR sitting at 10, hard to get anything fully liquid to the ground, even with a powerful warm nose

[AirNelson39]

Looks like we have major differences between amounts on RAP and NAM compared to HRRR for the Piedmont of NC. Anyone have thoughts on which typically performs better in this scenario?

[BooneWX]

Just now, AirNelson39 said:

Looks like we have major differences between amounts on RAP and NAM compared to HRRR for the Piedmont of NC. Anyone have thoughts on which typically performs better in this scenario?

IMO trust the wet guidance on this. Look at the angle of the flow and 700 mb temp advection. We don’t have a dry off ramp. We’re lifting incredibly warm moist air into an anomalous low level dome. 
 

No one has talked about this either but in NC, that flow is going to have 3 origin points: leftover Pacific moisture, fresh tap from the gulf and increasing Atlantic flow. 
 

Also of note, no guidance had moisture making it to the ground in western NC this morning, so they can’t even nail hyper close range.

[USCG RS]

5 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said:

Looks like we have major differences between amounts on RAP and NAM compared to HRRR for the Piedmont of NC. Anyone have thoughts on which typically performs better in this scenario?

I'd look at real world observations upstream vs simulated outcomes for each model. That will give you an idea of which model is handling things better. 

[USCG RS]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

IMO trust the wet guidance on this. Look at the angle of the flow and 700 mb temp advection. We don’t have a dry off ramp. We’re lifting incredibly warm moist air into an anomalous low level dome. 
 

No one has talked about this either but in NC, that flow is going to have 3 origin points: leftover Pacific moisture, fresh tap from the gulf and increasing Atlantic flow. 
 

Also of note, no guidance had moisture making it to the ground in western NC this morning, so they can’t even nail hyper close range.

Great analysis

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

IMO trust the wet guidance on this. Look at the angle of the flow and 700 mb temp advection. We don’t have a dry off ramp. We’re lifting incredibly warm moist air into an anomalous low level dome. 
 

No one has talked about this either but in NC, that flow is going to have 3 origin points: leftover Pacific moisture, fresh tap from the gulf and increasing Atlantic flow. 
 

Also of note, no guidance had moisture making it to the ground in western NC this morning, so they can’t even nail hyper close range.

This is a GREAT post! The southeast component to the air flow as the low cuts off to our west some will be noticeable, so increased fetch to Boones point, coupled with other factors outlined. Even if the radar isn’t going crazy at some point freezing drizzle minimum will be happening and accruing at that.

Outside of this, I would be careful of weighing other areas with reporting more snow or colder temps to the west of us. Synoptically, things are different, namely for the reasons outlined above with fetch of southeast winds pumping in from the Atlantic/Gulf. 

[StantonParkHoya]

If we still hear pings at 6 tomorrow morning, Wake county will probably not have a severe ice storm

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Virga has moved over the Winston-Salem area and Northwest North Carolina 

[wncsnow]

I disagree, I think we underperform with precip. Upstream has mostly underperformed. Lower snow totals in Oklahoma. Lighter amounts. Dry air is very deep with this arctic high. I think its an impactful system especially for the foothills, but I dont see the 1.0-1.5 QPF verifying. 

[Brick Tamland]

HRRR appears to have less precip in NC this run.

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

I disagree, I think we underperform with precip. Upstream has mostly underperformed. Lower snow totals in Oklahoma. Lighter amounts. Dry air is very deep with this arctic high. I think its an impactful system especially for the foothills, but I dont see the 1.0-1.5 QPF verifying. 

Also the west to east movement of precipitation won't cut it here east of the Apps today. Downsloping and dry air will= virga until the flow changes more SWly tonight. I think we dont get much precip reaching the ground until closer to 8 pm. 

[stormwatcherJ]

The way this entire storm has unfolded, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the triangle get nothing at all!

[Regan]

Ummm. Ok. Would be nice, but that’s extreme wishing. 

[BooneWX]

We’re also having quite the over performance just to our west so idk. Precip is falling well ahead of schedule. We already have snow just to my west hitting the ground. 

[Brick Tamland]

The latest RAP.

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

The latest RAP.

Not even .25 here lol

[Tony Sisk]

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

The latest RAP.

That is pretty much a nothing burger for SC and NC

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

That is pretty much a nothing burger for SC and NC

New GFS has this by tomorrow morning. Very light 

[olafminesaw]

Even if it's not showing precip, freezing drizzle can still accumulate on surfaces

[wncsnow]

Just now, olafminesaw said:

Even if it's not showing precip, freezing drizzle can still accumulate on surfaces

True but these DPs are super low. It will take time to saturate the atmosphere to the point drizzle can fall

[stormwatcherJ]

I went from 20 inches of snow a week ago to a dusting of sleet, lol. So what’s on tap for next weekend? 

[Snow dog]

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

New GFS has this by tomorrow morning. Very light 

Wow- the one time I’m rooting for a forecast bust!  I like hot showers!