January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[PackGrad05]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

GFS with a hard rain at the end to wash it all away. Much warmer.


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I know you're being hyperbolic, but that 34 degree rain will hardly wash it all away.

[PackGrad05]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

All of the upstate to part of the triangle is above freezing for the last wave of precip. Wow, this might be a forecast whiff

After 12 hours of frozen precipitation.

[ADB83]

Yeah that moved a lot, ZR mixes hours earlier and heavy precipitation shifts quite a bit northwest too 

[wncsnow]

Just now, calculus1 said:

The QPF on the 00Z GFS looks even more than its most recent runs. 2.5 inches in Hickory?! Wow!

Yeah and we stay below freezing for 95% of it. A quick burst of rain after the damage is done is not going to wash it away in an instant. Lots of wish casting going on tonight 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

the GFS still shows over 12 hours of precipitation in central NC with temps below freezing.  That's a mess.

Mess but not what we thought… if we end up with an inch of sleet and 0.25” of ice after what we thought I mean that can only be described as a whiff on the forecast 

[calculus1]

Stays below freezing for the entire event in Hickory, but swings from a “high” of 31 F at 4 AM on Monday morning to 17 F at 7 AM. That’s a crazy temperature swing over that period.

[PackGrad05]

1 minute ago, calculus1 said:

Stays below freezing for the entire event in Hickory, but swings from a “high” of 31 F at 4 AM on Monday morning to 17 F at 7 AM. That’s a crazy temperature swing over that period.

THIS.  Even in Raleigh, temp drops from 34 back to the upper 20s before noon.

[USCG RS]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Mess but not what we thought… if we end up with an inch of sleet and 0.25” of ice after what we thought I mean that can only be described as a whiff on the forecast 

Thats manageable. 1-2" of ice is not. 

[wncsnow]

Just now, PackGrad05 said:

THIS.  Even in Raleigh, temp drops from back to the upper 20s before noon.

Its going to freeze any runoff quickly and roads will remain treacherous 

[GunBlade]

So much banter when models have barely changed. Every few miles or couple degrees is a bust. Save it for X or somewhere else and let people who know what they’re talking about share. 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, calculus1 said:

Stays below freezing for the entire event in Hickory, but swings from a “high” of 31 F at 4 AM on Monday morning to 17 F at 7 AM. That’s a crazy temperature swing over that period.

Yea the ice area is likely shifting to climo regions. The wish casting mostly for Raleigh. Verbatim still an ice storm but worst of it is clearly heading to climo 

[RaleighNC]

Pardon this banter, but to a layperson, it seems all these models are worthless. 

[PackGrad05]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Yea the ice area is likely shifting to climo regions. The wish casting mostly for Raleigh. Verbatim still an ice storm but worst of it is clearly heading to climo 

Temperatures may go slightly above freezing for a few hours, but quickly go below again after sunrise....  The high temperature may occur in the middle of the night....

[AGardiner87]

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1BXdxgyNfd/?mibextid=wwXIfr
 

Brad P’s thoughts by location. 

[calculus1]

Crazy cold Monday night: -8 F at 7 AM Tuesday morning in Hickory according to the 00Z GFS.

[USCG RS]

Just now, RaleighNC said:

Pardon this banter, but to a layperson, it seems all these models are worthless. 

To an extent. But not really. 

Models are a tool. If you have an understanding of atmospheric physics, your local climatology and what each model has an affinity for then they can be useful, sometimes very. 

Pattern recognition is also part of it. At the end of the day, models paint pretty maps, buts it the meteorologists/hobbiests job to make heads or tails of it. And like models each one has their own set of bias. But, at the end of the day, weather prediction is quite complicated and, honestly, downright frustrating at times. 

[USCG RS]

Just now, calculus1 said:

Crazy cold Monday night: -8 F at 7 AM Tuesday morning in Hickory according to the 00Z GFS.

Oof. After a potential ice storm. That's... I hope OEM is gearing up for that. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Eric Webb just said he sees more failure modes for a major ice accumulation in piedmont areas than he did this morning:

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2014544089119953034?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

[calculus1]

That heavy sleet accumulation turns the NW piedmont into a freezer locker. After -8 F Tuesday morning, we get down to 4 F on Wednesday morning. We are colder than most mountain locations, and it’s not due to CAD.

[JoshM]

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Eric Webb just said he sees more failure modes for a major ice accumulation in piedmont areas than he did this morning:

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2014544089119953034?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

I hope so, but it's hard to believe with 850s that blow torch, 60 degrees +

 

[USCG RS]

[NCBlizzard]

18 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

All of the upstate to part of the triangle is above freezing for the last wave of precip. Wow, this might be a forecast whiff

Through 1/26 03z, I still see a solid wedge (00z GFS)? Regardless though, it's hard for me to believe the wedge is scoured such, although perhaps it will be, as another important learning/data point. 

I was certainly hoping the trends with 00z would be more in our favor - especially since the GFS ingested a notable amount of additional obs from NOAA recon (not sure of assimilation of this data into GEM/EURO etc)

 

[Blacksburg Coach]

50 minutes ago, DTP said:

Not to my knowledge- spheres (IP) generally will not stick to another curved surface and typically bounce or roll off

However, freezing drizzle between sleet showers (pretty common) definitely will stick to trees and powerlines, even more than ZR

 

I thought the same until i read an article about sleet sticking to snow that's already fallen on trees and powerlines and adding weight. 

[USCG RS]

Just now, Blacksburg Coach said:

I thought the same until i read an article about sleet sticking to snow that's already fallen on trees and powerlines and adding weight. 

From a physics point of view, that makes sense actually. The sleet is latching onto a a surface that has more surface area plus easier to bond together. 

If there's no snow, however, IP do not really present an issue to powerlines and trees. 

[BooneWX]

I don’t know if we’re all looking for an escape route or what, but if you’ve lived in the cad region for any substantial period of time and you think we’re swinging into the teens and will be above freezing Sunday night, hop up, grab a Marlboro red, go outside and smoke for a few minutes and then come back in and comment. Raleigh? Maybe. NE Georgia and the southwest Blue Ridge? Could see it there too. Also, I’m not saying toss globals at this juncture. They don’t become less useful late in the game but we’re now shifting gears to CAMs. Watch trends there. HRRR has sub zero dews and the FV3 is an ice box as well. 

[Disc]

29 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Paging @Disc... would love to know why yall are bullish about snow amounts especially south of 460?

We'll be working on it tonight and these should go down, especially along and south of the VA/NC border.

[btownheel]

I don’t know if we’re all looking for an escape route or what, but if you’ve lived in the cad region for any substantial period of time and you think we’re swinging into the teens and will be above freezing Sunday night, hop up, grab a Marlboro red, go outside and smoke for a few minutes and then come back in and comment. Raleigh? Maybe. NE Georgia and the southwest Blue Ridge? Could see it there too. Also, I’m not saying toss globals at this juncture. They don’t become less useful late in the game but we’re now shifting gears to CAMs. Watch trends there. HRRR has sub zero dews and the FV3 is an ice box as well. 

I think people are trying to wishcast away and latching onto anything. Also the general vibe in the last years for message boards/Twitter etc. on all topics has been to max out nihilism. Bottom line is we’re gonna get blasted. But *hopefully* for a lot of north central NC most of it falls as sleet which will be a super fun storm.


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[BooneWX]

1 minute ago, btownheel said:

I think people are trying to wishcast away and latching onto anything. Also the general vibe in the last years for message boards/Twitter etc. on all topics has been to max out nihilism. Bottom line is we’re gonna get blasted. But *hopefully* for a lot of north central NC most of it falls as sleet which will be a super fun storm.


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I agree. It’s madness as well having this much access to data. I yearn for the lost days where you had to wait 12 hrs to see a limited amount of models. Information overload. 2 hrs ago everyone was breathing deeper with cams showing more sleet. One mild shift in the gfs an hour later and we can toss the 36 hrs of freezing rain in the 20s it showed. 
 

You’re all nuts, but it’s what keeps me coming back. 

[Jimbo!]

We'll be working on it tonight and these should go down, especially along and south of the VA/NC border.

How much ZR down Danville way? Am I crazy to still be planning on surgery?


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[btownheel]

I agree. It’s madness as well having this much access to data. I yearn for the lost days where you had to wait 12 hrs to see a limited amount of models. Information overload. 2 hrs ago everyone was breathing deeper with cams showing more sleet. One mild shift in the gfs an hour later and we can toss the 36 hrs of freezing rain in the 20s it showed. 
 
You’re all nuts, but it’s what keeps me coming back. 

Truth. FTR, also fully agree with your comment that precisely no one in NC CAD favored regions is seeing any of this above freezing. Not an hour, not a minute. We’re lining up the strongest entrenched CAD signature we may have seen in 15 years. Make the necessary prep and hope it’s all pingers (which I think is actually pretty likely).

SC/NE GA and some of the Sandhills in NC? Not so fortunate I’m afraid…


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