January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[UpStateCAD]

3 minutes ago, UpStateCAD said:

GSP experimental product.    Not nearly as bullish as some of the models are depicting.

Probabilistic Winter Precip Forecasts

Then there is this for Greenville.....obviously the 2 do not align...

[BornAgain13]

@Buddy1987if we see more south shifts, I could see us getting in that 3-6" down here but im thinking 2-4" here of total Snow/Sleet combined and then a lot of ZR. What's your thinking?

[Brick Tamland]

11 minutes ago, wake4est said:

WRAL's first forecast with numbers is exactly the 06z Euro.

That's all they do now, go with the Euro verbatim and call it their in house model.

[benjammin]

"In house" models seem to always have been a hype/marketing tool more than anything anyway. 

[Blacksburg Coach]

From Blacksburg NWS 

 

Now for what everyone really cares about: snow and ice totals. Due
to the cold air in place and already cold ground temperatures, any
snow that does fall will be light and fluffy and accumulate quickly.
The initial onset of snow will cause 2-4" of snow to fall
along/south of the NC/VA border, increasing to 5-8" along US-460.
Northern areas along I-64 will see 10-14"+ of snow, with locally
higher amounts possible. On top of the snow will be sleet
accumulations, possibly measured in inches as well. Around 1-3" of
sleet could accumulate due to the very cold surface temperatures on
top of the snow. If the sleet starts sooner, the snow totals will
also decrease. Finally, ice accumulations will be light along/west
of the Blue Ridge and north of I-64, with anywhere from a glaze to
two tenths possible. For the Piedmont, 0.25-0.40" is expected,
mainly Sunday afternoon/evening. The ice will add a crusty hard
layer on top of the snow/sleet.

With all of the above being said, take this storm seriously and
prepare now. Due to the storm having mixed precipitation types,
roads will be harder to clear, causing travel to be difficult and
dangerous. If at all possible, avoid travel unless absolutely
necessary. With the slightly later timing of the storm, Monday
morning`s commute will be treacherous, especially with very cold
temperatures keeping all fallen precipitation from melting.

[wake4est]

Having learned nothing in the past 72 hours, I'm all in for the 18" of snow the 0z Euro gives us next weekend. Bank on it.  Pic for funsies...

[lilj4425]

10 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Having learned nothing in the past 72 hours, I'm all in for the 18" of snow the 0z Euro gives us next weekend. Bank on it.  Pic for funsies...

I’ll start the thread.  

[Brick Tamland]

8 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Having learned nothing in the past 72 hours, I'm all in for the 18" of snow the 0z Euro gives us next weekend. Bank on it. 

It'll probably show that up until 4 days out and then go 

 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

I’ll start the thread.  

I’m ready to get hurt again

[strongwxnc]

12 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Having learned nothing in the past 72 hours, I'm all in for the 18" of snow the 0z Euro gives us next weekend. Bank on it.  Pic for funsies...

 

LETS GO. 

 

In other news, I hear something about some ice this weekend. Maybe alot

[NorthHillsWx]

Why were people saying the euro trended south? It looks like it if anything remained the same and eroded the wedge faster especially on eastern side

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Why were people saying the euro trended south? It looks like it if anything remained the same and eroded the wedge faster especially on eastern side

Also less QPF. Might save us here in Raleigh 

[Buddy1987]

25 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

@Buddy1987if we see more south shifts, I could see us getting in that 3-6" down here but im thinking 2-4" here of total Snow/Sleet combined and then a lot of ZR. What's your thinking?

I don't wish this forecast on anyone. We could get 3'' or we could get 9''. The biggest dilemma is trying to nail down PL vs ZR. That is where i'm conflicted. Gun to head I think your area sees 3-6" followed by a prolonged period of PL and then finishing it with a ZR topper.

[olafminesaw]

8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Why were people saying the euro trended south? It looks like it if anything remained the same and eroded the wedge faster especially on eastern side

Not much difference overall I guess but if we wanted to trend towards a stronger wedge it moved in the right direction 

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, olafminesaw said:

Not much difference overall I guess but if we wanted to trend towards a stronger wedge it moved in the right direction 

Thanks, I’m mobile this morning so haven’t been able to look too hard

[wake4est]

16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Also less QPF. Might save us here in Raleigh 

Less qpf, but still 1.3" in Raleigh on the 06z

[HWY316wx]

[PackGrad05]

The EURO QPF really didn't change much except compared to the previous run.    The runs before those were showing around 1.5".   It went back to around 1.5" after briefly bumping to close to 2" on the 00Z.  

The average has always been 1-2"

[HKY_WX]

I think my original analog of a December 2002 scenario in GA/Carolinas in January with colder air is pretty much going to work out. I know most of the state received 1.5-2 inches of precip in that system, which is what I would expect this time.  The only saving grace could potentially be sleet as you all have noted. Otherwise it really would be catastrophic around here. A scenario worse than Dec 2002 really is scary to think about from a Power Outage/impact on life perspective.

[Buddy1987]

Nice little push to the confluence up top at 36 on the 12Z NAM. See if it translates downstream though as moisture gets closer. That 50/50 low above Maine is trying to help us out.

[DTP]

44 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Having learned nothing in the past 72 hours, I'm all in for the 18" of snow the 0z Euro gives us next weekend. Bank on it. 

100%- count me in lol

 

In light of this total clusterf$%k, they need to move their prediction scope backwards to 72 hrs max on just about all of these models ouside of a very basic probabilistic outcome (with a wide safety net) until they  ingest metadata with a closer linkage to an actual event. The flight into the Baja low last night confirms this 

Some of the models I have built are for US-based equity futures and futures options (SPX/NDX/RUT)- if I were to have to made this magnitude of an error, someone(plural) big goes bankrupt, especially since it involves delta hedging by prime dealers (market makers).  I know I sound like a broken record about incorporating metadata, but my models are comprised of approximately 60-70% (or more) of a combination of real-time/near-term.  Market makers have to stay delta neutral (first order Greek) at all times, and also account for the four other second-order Greeks in Black-Scholes; plus inventory (sold calls/puts, often in complex spreads) has to be zeroed out constantly.  And a lot of the flow is HFT (high-frequency algos)....and my models have to predict this 2 to 3 days in advance.  Why not more?  Because the variance/covariance and correlations completely lose any accuracy without recent metadata- they go from a very robust model to stick-thin with no predictive power within the span of two trading days ....the phrase "you can't bring a knife to a gun fight" comes to mind 

[Snowncanes]

Crazy how we went from a super suppressed drawn out storm to a miller B plowing right up the apps in a matter of 24 hours. Also, GFS barely gets us (RDU) above freezing for the foreseeable future. Will be interesting to see how that plays out based on if we get IP or ZR

[ADB83]

Kudos to WFMY 2 in the Triad. They’ve said all along that all they know is there’s a lot of moisture and it will be cold. And that’s it. And that will end up being correct most likely. Anyone who was saying anything else definitely got out over their skies on this one 

[Thrasher Fan]

Nice, dry weekend for most per the NAM. 

 

What a dumb model. That run makes almost zero sense.

[StoneColdWeatherAustin]

5 minutes ago, DTP said:

100%- count me in lol

 

In light of this total clusterf$%k, they need to move their prediction scope backwards to 72 hrs max on just about all of these models ouside of a very basic probabilistic outcome (with a wide safety net) until they  ingest metadata with a closer linkage to an actual event. The flight into the Baja low last night confirms this 

Some of the models I have built are for US-based equity futures and futures options (SPX/NDX/RUT)- if I were to have to made this magnitude of an error, someone(plural) big goes bankrupt, especially since it involves delta hedging by prime dealers (market makers).  I know I sound like a broken record about incorporating metadata, but my models are comprised of approximately 60-70% (or more) of a combination of real-time/near-term.  Market makers have to stay delta neutral (first order Greek) at all times, and also account for the four other second-order Greeks in Black-Scholes; plus inventory (sold calls/puts, often in complex spreads) has to be zeroed out constantly.  And a lot of the flow is HFT (high-frequency algos)....and my models have to predict this 2 to 3 days in advance.  Why not more?  Because the variance/covariance and correlations completely lose any accuracy without recent metadata- they go from a very robust model to stick-thin with no predictive power within the span of two trading days ....the phrase "you can't bring a knife to a gun fight" comes to mind 

For sure.  The kicker to that is multiple globals were showing big snow for a big chunk of NC within the 72 hour window.  If I remember correctly, that was Tuesday 18z, and at that time the start of the precip was roughly Friday evening or overnight at the latest.  It was the 0z models a few hours later that started the real warning signs.  I know it sucks for the TV people.  They know all this info is shared across social media so they have to keep people in check while at the same time having no idea what the actual outcome will be until closer to 24-48 hours.

[Buddy1987]

Subtle yet potentially impactful changes out to 48 when weighing anything between sleet vs freezing rain. Heights slightly lower and HP also about 2 mb stronger.

[Upstate Tiger]

NAM with precip on NC's doorstep at 15Z Saturday.  That's faster onset.

[SUNYGRAD]

Any Miller B storm can be tricky, let alone a weaker system.  There could be some wrinkles yet to come.  

[Buddy1987]

NAM juicing things up in central TX/AR at 54 comparatively to 6z run.

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, StoneColdWeatherAustin said:

For sure.  The kicker to that is multiple globals were showing big snow for a big chunk of NC within the 72 hour window.  If I remember correctly, that was Tuesday 18z, and at that time the start of the precip was roughly Friday evening or overnight at the latest.  It was the 0z models a few hours later that started the real warning signs.  I know it sucks for the TV people.  They know all this info is shared across social media so they have to keep people in check while at the same time having no idea what the actual outcome will be until closer to 24-48 hours.

Would probably save a lot of time and energy if I just read the NWS forecast discussions and only start looking at the models if they are talking about a winter storm 3 days out. I just can't get over the Euro showing 15 inches of snow here Tuesday and then by Wednesday it was all freezing rain.