UpStateCAD Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, UpStateCAD said: GSP experimental product. Not nearly as bullish as some of the models are depicting. Probabilistic Winter Precip Forecasts Then there is this for Greenville.....obviously the 2 do not align... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 @Buddy1987if we see more south shifts, I could see us getting in that 3-6" down here but im thinking 2-4" here of total Snow/Sleet combined and then a lot of ZR. What's your thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 11 minutes ago, wake4est said: WRAL's first forecast with numbers is exactly the 06z Euro. That's all they do now, go with the Euro verbatim and call it their in house model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 "In house" models seem to always have been a hype/marketing tool more than anything anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blacksburg Coach Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 From Blacksburg NWS Now for what everyone really cares about: snow and ice totals. Due to the cold air in place and already cold ground temperatures, any snow that does fall will be light and fluffy and accumulate quickly. The initial onset of snow will cause 2-4" of snow to fall along/south of the NC/VA border, increasing to 5-8" along US-460. Northern areas along I-64 will see 10-14"+ of snow, with locally higher amounts possible. On top of the snow will be sleet accumulations, possibly measured in inches as well. Around 1-3" of sleet could accumulate due to the very cold surface temperatures on top of the snow. If the sleet starts sooner, the snow totals will also decrease. Finally, ice accumulations will be light along/west of the Blue Ridge and north of I-64, with anywhere from a glaze to two tenths possible. For the Piedmont, 0.25-0.40" is expected, mainly Sunday afternoon/evening. The ice will add a crusty hard layer on top of the snow/sleet. With all of the above being said, take this storm seriously and prepare now. Due to the storm having mixed precipitation types, roads will be harder to clear, causing travel to be difficult and dangerous. If at all possible, avoid travel unless absolutely necessary. With the slightly later timing of the storm, Monday morning`s commute will be treacherous, especially with very cold temperatures keeping all fallen precipitation from melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Having learned nothing in the past 72 hours, I'm all in for the 18" of snow the 0z Euro gives us next weekend. Bank on it. Pic for funsies... 5 7 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 10 minutes ago, wake4est said: Having learned nothing in the past 72 hours, I'm all in for the 18" of snow the 0z Euro gives us next weekend. Bank on it. Pic for funsies... I’ll start the thread. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 8 minutes ago, wake4est said: Having learned nothing in the past 72 hours, I'm all in for the 18" of snow the 0z Euro gives us next weekend. Bank on it. It'll probably show that up until 4 days out and then go 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, lilj4425 said: I’ll start the thread. I’m ready to get hurt again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 12 minutes ago, wake4est said: Having learned nothing in the past 72 hours, I'm all in for the 18" of snow the 0z Euro gives us next weekend. Bank on it. Pic for funsies... LETS GO. In other news, I hear something about some ice this weekend. Maybe alot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Why were people saying the euro trended south? It looks like it if anything remained the same and eroded the wedge faster especially on eastern side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: Why were people saying the euro trended south? It looks like it if anything remained the same and eroded the wedge faster especially on eastern side Also less QPF. Might save us here in Raleigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 25 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: @Buddy1987if we see more south shifts, I could see us getting in that 3-6" down here but im thinking 2-4" here of total Snow/Sleet combined and then a lot of ZR. What's your thinking? I don't wish this forecast on anyone. We could get 3'' or we could get 9''. The biggest dilemma is trying to nail down PL vs ZR. That is where i'm conflicted. Gun to head I think your area sees 3-6" followed by a prolonged period of PL and then finishing it with a ZR topper. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Why were people saying the euro trended south? It looks like it if anything remained the same and eroded the wedge faster especially on eastern side Not much difference overall I guess but if we wanted to trend towards a stronger wedge it moved in the right direction 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, olafminesaw said: Not much difference overall I guess but if we wanted to trend towards a stronger wedge it moved in the right direction Thanks, I’m mobile this morning so haven’t been able to look too hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Also less QPF. Might save us here in Raleigh Less qpf, but still 1.3" in Raleigh on the 06z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 The EURO QPF really didn't change much except compared to the previous run. The runs before those were showing around 1.5". It went back to around 1.5" after briefly bumping to close to 2" on the 00Z. The average has always been 1-2" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I think my original analog of a December 2002 scenario in GA/Carolinas in January with colder air is pretty much going to work out. I know most of the state received 1.5-2 inches of precip in that system, which is what I would expect this time. The only saving grace could potentially be sleet as you all have noted. Otherwise it really would be catastrophic around here. A scenario worse than Dec 2002 really is scary to think about from a Power Outage/impact on life perspective. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Nice little push to the confluence up top at 36 on the 12Z NAM. See if it translates downstream though as moisture gets closer. That 50/50 low above Maine is trying to help us out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTP Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 44 minutes ago, wake4est said: Having learned nothing in the past 72 hours, I'm all in for the 18" of snow the 0z Euro gives us next weekend. Bank on it. 100%- count me in lol In light of this total clusterf$%k, they need to move their prediction scope backwards to 72 hrs max on just about all of these models ouside of a very basic probabilistic outcome (with a wide safety net) until they ingest metadata with a closer linkage to an actual event. The flight into the Baja low last night confirms this Some of the models I have built are for US-based equity futures and futures options (SPX/NDX/RUT)- if I were to have to made this magnitude of an error, someone(plural) big goes bankrupt, especially since it involves delta hedging by prime dealers (market makers). I know I sound like a broken record about incorporating metadata, but my models are comprised of approximately 60-70% (or more) of a combination of real-time/near-term. Market makers have to stay delta neutral (first order Greek) at all times, and also account for the four other second-order Greeks in Black-Scholes; plus inventory (sold calls/puts, often in complex spreads) has to be zeroed out constantly. And a lot of the flow is HFT (high-frequency algos)....and my models have to predict this 2 to 3 days in advance. Why not more? Because the variance/covariance and correlations completely lose any accuracy without recent metadata- they go from a very robust model to stick-thin with no predictive power within the span of two trading days ....the phrase "you can't bring a knife to a gun fight" comes to mind 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowncanes Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Crazy how we went from a super suppressed drawn out storm to a miller B plowing right up the apps in a matter of 24 hours. Also, GFS barely gets us (RDU) above freezing for the foreseeable future. Will be interesting to see how that plays out based on if we get IP or ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADB83 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Kudos to WFMY 2 in the Triad. They’ve said all along that all they know is there’s a lot of moisture and it will be cold. And that’s it. And that will end up being correct most likely. Anyone who was saying anything else definitely got out over their skies on this one 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Nice, dry weekend for most per the NAM. What a dumb model. That run makes almost zero sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 5 minutes ago, DTP said: 100%- count me in lol In light of this total clusterf$%k, they need to move their prediction scope backwards to 72 hrs max on just about all of these models ouside of a very basic probabilistic outcome (with a wide safety net) until they ingest metadata with a closer linkage to an actual event. The flight into the Baja low last night confirms this Some of the models I have built are for US-based equity futures and futures options (SPX/NDX/RUT)- if I were to have to made this magnitude of an error, someone(plural) big goes bankrupt, especially since it involves delta hedging by prime dealers (market makers). I know I sound like a broken record about incorporating metadata, but my models are comprised of approximately 60-70% (or more) of a combination of real-time/near-term. Market makers have to stay delta neutral (first order Greek) at all times, and also account for the four other second-order Greeks in Black-Scholes; plus inventory (sold calls/puts, often in complex spreads) has to be zeroed out constantly. And a lot of the flow is HFT (high-frequency algos)....and my models have to predict this 2 to 3 days in advance. Why not more? Because the variance/covariance and correlations completely lose any accuracy without recent metadata- they go from a very robust model to stick-thin with no predictive power within the span of two trading days ....the phrase "you can't bring a knife to a gun fight" comes to mind For sure. The kicker to that is multiple globals were showing big snow for a big chunk of NC within the 72 hour window. If I remember correctly, that was Tuesday 18z, and at that time the start of the precip was roughly Friday evening or overnight at the latest. It was the 0z models a few hours later that started the real warning signs. I know it sucks for the TV people. They know all this info is shared across social media so they have to keep people in check while at the same time having no idea what the actual outcome will be until closer to 24-48 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Subtle yet potentially impactful changes out to 48 when weighing anything between sleet vs freezing rain. Heights slightly lower and HP also about 2 mb stronger. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 NAM with precip on NC's doorstep at 15Z Saturday. That's faster onset. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Any Miller B storm can be tricky, let alone a weaker system. There could be some wrinkles yet to come. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 NAM juicing things up in central TX/AR at 54 comparatively to 6z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, StoneColdWeatherAustin said: For sure. The kicker to that is multiple globals were showing big snow for a big chunk of NC within the 72 hour window. If I remember correctly, that was Tuesday 18z, and at that time the start of the precip was roughly Friday evening or overnight at the latest. It was the 0z models a few hours later that started the real warning signs. I know it sucks for the TV people. They know all this info is shared across social media so they have to keep people in check while at the same time having no idea what the actual outcome will be until closer to 24-48 hours. Would probably save a lot of time and energy if I just read the NWS forecast discussions and only start looking at the models if they are talking about a winter storm 3 days out. I just can't get over the Euro showing 15 inches of snow here Tuesday and then by Wednesday it was all freezing rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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