January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[Brick Tamland]

6 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I just want to see the orange area a little south of Durham. 

[Blacksburg Coach]

2 minutes ago, PeeDeeWx said:

Understood. My question is this was showing an 1"+ of freezing rain for the top half of the state up until 12-18 hours ago and now it appears it's just the upstate forecast to get significant ice. I said "most" of SC in my initial question regarding drastic change in accumulation for the better (less). Just wanted to make sure I'm looking at the map correctly and it's nothing egregious outside of upstate.

I think the map you're referencing was total amount of rain falling in freezing conditions including sleet. Really tough to nail down sleet and ZR totals right now. Also keep in mind all the rain that falls will not freeze to elevated surfaces.

[buckeyefan1]

4 minutes ago, SEwakenosnowforu said:

His name is PEE DEE though. So I assume he is looking at the ZR totals for that region. on that particular map it's not all that bad. However, there is plenty of time for that to change.

Pee Dee is a large area and .60 of ice taken verbatim will be an issue. 

4 minutes ago, PeeDeeWx said:

Understood. My question is this was showing an 1"+ of freezing rain for the top half of the state up until 12-18 hours ago and now it appears it's just the upstate forecast to get significant ice. I said "most" of SC in my initial question regarding drastic change in accumulation for the better (less). Just wanted to make sure I'm looking at the map correctly and it's nothing egregious outside of upstate.

Please do not take any of these clown maps seriously. There are many many factors that these maps don’t take into consideration. 

[IceQueen706]

11 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Feels like a good time to share this with the type of ice accumulation being talked about. Unfortunately winds look to get quite gusty during the height of the freezing rain as well. I'm praying for as much sleet as possible now, or for this thing to just cut all the way to Memphis.

We're probably in 4/5 range here in Clayton and Tiger?

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Let's aim for a sleet record:

 

Quote

AI: While official sleet accumulation records are often mixed with other frozen precipitation, major events include over 10" in parts of PA and DE in Jan 2000, around 8 inches in ID in 1961, and significant amounts like 6-8 inches in North Carolina in 1987

 

[CentralNC]

1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Let's aim for a sleet record:

 

 

I remember that 1987 storm. Lived in downtown Winston at the time. Heaviest sleet I've ever seen and it was like 18 degrees

[buckeyefan1]

2 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Let's aim for a sleet record:

 

 

Best. Sledding. Ever.

[ADB83]

1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Best. Sledding. Ever.

I was 4. I don’t remember any of it, but I’d like to imagine I took full advantage! Let’s see if we get a chance to re-live it 40 years later

[Tyler Penland]

1 hour ago, Thrasher Fan said:

Below is hour 90 of the 0z GFS and EURO. Both still not connected on the strength of the HPs to the north thus the difference in strengths of the CADs. 

 I mentioned this in the mountain thread but if you go back and look the euro was 2-3mb too weak with the current HP over the northeast at the same range we are from this weekend. It was pretty good from 5-7 days, then showed too weak in the 3-4 day range, then latched on around 72-84 hours or so. It was also a few degrees too warm at the surface in many spots.

[WXNewton]

15z SREFs have trended overall precip back south when compared to 9z. I have a feeling 18z runs will follow that move back south to some degree.

[DTP]

4 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Let's aim for a sleet record:

 

 

2.4" of total precip @ 4:1 would be ~6" if the precip were all IP....which would take about 9 centuries to melt off with as cold as it is going to be 

 

Most I ever saw was 3"+ in Dallas; it was back to 70 degrees 4 days after the event- really strange seeing the ground still coated- it stuck around for almost a week after

10" at 4:1 is insane- that system was juiced for that to happen- 4-4.5" total QPF

[SnowDawg]

20 minutes ago, IceQueen706 said:

We're probably in 4/5 range here in Clayton and Tiger?

As of now yes. Could easily see things trend towards predominantly sleet but gotta prepare for the worst.

[burgertime]

18z NAM has the energy weaker in Canada compared to 12z and not as far south out to 45

[David6310]

9 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

I remember that 1987 storm. Lived in downtown Winston at the time. Heaviest sleet I've ever seen and it was like 18 degrees

If this is the same storm I'm thinking of, I was a senior at NCSU.  They cancelled classes for the first time ever during that storm.  I don't remember specifics but it seemed like 5-6" of sleet fell during that storm.

[DTP]

11 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Best. Sledding. Ever.

I will do a video behind my house- we have a golf course running to the bottom at the lakes and a driving range on the other side of the hill.  The driving range is on top of the 150' hill with a 30 degree pitch- it more resembles a ski slope than anything else

The neighborhood kids use river tubes and sleds- somewhat uncertain how someone hasn't gotten killed at this point- they build jumps in as well....some of them hit 40 mph+ otw down

 

[Buddy1987]

5 minutes ago, burgertime said:

18z NAM has the energy weaker in Canada compared to 12z and not as far south out to 45

Very nice push to the confluence over the Midwest as well. Hopefully its a good thing to come here this evening.

[HKY_WX]

Some decent trends on the NAM thus far. At this point, the entire baha wave is coming out, but a bit less northern energy interaction on the backend could be the difference between a front end thump of several inches of snow and a pure icestorm. Ideally you want to see that polar lob a bit further southeast than where it's at if you want snow. Some trends in that direction would be nice.

[burgertime]

Here's the difference at 5H between the two 

https://jumpshare.com/s/TybL8AVKkMqaIOX4t3Ev

[SouthboundYank]

Thought my Midland weather radio was crapping out on me today, but no....we're just not getting signal here in northeastern SC. That seems quite problematic to me, given that we're 3-4 days out from a major (some would say "historic") winter storm...

[Buddy1987]

If 18Z Nam were to continue to progress like this the dome above any baja energy would almost surely have to force the precip to undercut. It was trending nicely up until around the 54 hr mark on 12Z and then heights rose pretty dramatically so we'll see if we lose again.

[KChuck]

1 hour ago, Louise said:

They are terrible at forecasting!

They are terrible!

Fixed it for you! 

[burgertime]

NAM should be better. More seperation with the streams at 5H out to 60

[Upstate Tiger]

NAM surface at 75

[burgertime]

Not much changed in the 18z NAM at the end though it is a tad colder. 

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Not much changed in the 18z NAM at the end though it is a tax colder. 

I actually like what I saw for when the Nam is worth a damn prior to 60 hrs. I consider those meaningful changes based on what you and I outlined. Pretty sick CAD signal as well. Deep deep down the spine of the apps is cool to see.

[burgertime]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

I actually like what I saw for when the Nam is worth a damn prior to 60 hrs. I consider those meaningful changes based on what you and I outlined.

Yea for sure. Those runs tomorrow should be interesting if this keeps it up plus the new recon ingest. 

[SnowDawg]

Yep, the changes early in runs have been positive at 12z and now starting into 18z. They are small, but small changes upstream can lead to larger ones downstream. No different than the changes leading to the sudden flip we saw last night. Just need these trends to actually continue, not just windshield wiper back and forth.

[Buddy1987]

Here is link to track the Recon mission happening southwest of CA coast if anyone wants to track!

https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/TEAL74

[CentralNC]

16 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

NAM surface at 75

Need that finger of precip to be pointed a little further south!

[Upstate Tiger]

2 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

Need that finger of precip to be pointed a little further south!

Yeah really hoping to see precip work it's away into the Carolinas earlier than what NAM is showing but there are some positives and we are still at the end of the NAM's range and reliability.