January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, burgertime said:

That energy in the north is coming down faster than the Euro. It had it in Canada at 69hrs on the 6z Euro and just touching Idaho at 72. At 72 on the NAM it's diving through Idaho. 

I think NAM is trending wrong way.. ugh.. you can see heights rise pretty drastically at 72 12z. Precip also delayed by a good bit. HP slightly stronger and anchored over WI instead of MN.

[burgertime]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

I think NAM is trending wrong way.. ugh.. you can see heights rise pretty drastically at 72 12z. Precip also delayed by a good bit. HP slightly stronger and anchored over WI instead of MN.

Yep it's looking like the Euro. Sending the bulk of the moisture up the west side of the apps. It is 84hrs on the NAM but yea not the right direction at all. 

[wncsnow]

Nam looks awful. 

[Brick Tamland]

[Buddy1987]

Is the HP really going to be that transient? I mean christ it's solid as heck comparatively to the norm..

[burgertime]

You can see up along Canada and in NY we have strong highs there with arctic air. That should be a good cold CAD event for a widespread area. 

 

 

[wncsnow]

Verbatim the NAM is a sleet and ZR storm incoming. Look at these temps in CAD areas. It's still building in at this point too. 

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, burgertime said:

You can see up along Canada and in NY we have strong highs there with arctic air. That should be a good cold CAD event for a widespread area. 

 

 

 

Just now, wncsnow said:

Verbatim the NAM is a sleet and ZR storm incoming. Look at these temps in CAD areas. It's still building in at this point too. 

I personally don't like the trajectory of the WAA as modeled. I think a majority of us would miss the meat and potatoes of the moisture, at least to start.

[audioguy3107]

We're a couple of runs away from low end severe weather potential here in the SE. 

[burgertime]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

Is the HP really going to be that transient? I mean christ it's solid as heck comparatively to the norm..

Not sure if the models have improved that much since back in the days when you would get a classic CAD event that was more snow than ZR but to me it looks like one of those types of storms. That Jan 2010 storm was a similiar setup but without the true arctic air mass that this one has. Friday I'd be watching things out west closely. 

[wncsnow]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

 

I personally don't like the trajectory of the WAA as modeled. I think a majority of us would miss the meat and potatoes of the moisture, at least to start.

That is becoming a major concern. It will turn into freezing drizzle until the main show arrives later. Could cut down on ZR totals at least. 

[Buddy1987]

FV3 looked better than the NAM with surface at the end of the run so there's that at least. Not so much of a "finger pointing" happening with the WAA. More of a uniform west to east based trajectory. Pretty stout western trough though.

[burgertime]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

 

I personally don't like the trajectory of the WAA as modeled. I think a majority of us would miss the meat and potatoes of the moisture, at least to start.

No argument there. This was for sure a let down on the run. 

[btownheel]

Rooting for a major concrete bomb north of 40 at least. Who was the Aleet! Guy with sleet again?


.

[BooneWX]

I’m starting to think there’s a non-zero chance the Carolinas southward might can mostly dodge the bullet. It’s not a high chance but if we keep cutting further west, there will be a tremendous dry slot and less precip to cause damage. Prob the best case scenario at this point because it’s not coming south enough to snow anymore. 

[UpStateCAD]

Not crazy about the trends BUT this is the NAM, and it is out of it's range to boot.

Let's at least wait until it is in its range.    Interested in seeing what the Euro and GFS show later today.

[BooneWX]

2 minutes ago, UpStateCAD said:

Not crazy about the trends BUT this is the NAM, and it is out of it's range to boot.

Let's at least wait until it is in its range.    Interested in seeing what the Euro and GFS show later today.

The NAM is identical to the euro in the useful part of its range, which matters most, because the interaction with the Baja blast and the trough over Montana dictates everything downstream.

[DTP]

Having lived around CLT (Highland Creek, Harrisburg, and Tega Cay) for 25 years, I have seen the same setup quite a few times at this point.  If you are in CLT and want 100% snow, it probably won't happen- very low probability,  even north of 85.  If you like sleet. and lots of it- this is your storm; it will be the predominant p-type south of 40 down to a Chester/Union/Greenwood line.  South of that, mostly ZR down to the coastal plain.

The depth of cold air is extremely impressive for a CAD event; this has not deviated substantially on any of the models. Yes, a warm nose can and will wreak havoc on a pure snow event, but it is always a big feature in dammimg events- no way around it in most of these scenarios. However, if you have aome sort of frozen atw down to Wilmington and MB, and have a strong CAD signature going to NE Alabama, you are going to have high-impact winter storm from I-20 north. 

 

N Texas has different topo than the Carolinas, but the manner in which cold moves southward in an event like this is somewhat similar to a CAD event in our region (I grew up 20 min north of Dallas).  Deeper cold layer the further north you go, shallower as you go south from the Red River.  Backdoor front with NE winds during CAD is fairly similar to a blue norther with attendant instability and p-types as the cold filters in, especially with how the track of this low is modeled.  So you have WSW almost down to Austin at this point- that is a much deeper layer of cold around Dallas (upper teens by late Saturday).  Start as rain, then fr rain, then goes to a mix of frozen with predominantly sleet, and quite a bit of sleet from what I am seeing.  Most likely the same scenario in and around CLT, as our modeled temps are pretty similar in this setup.  

Thinking maybe 2-3" of snow in CLT, 3-4" of sleet, and minimal freezing rain- sure, you can have freezing rain in the upper teens/low 20's here, but it isn't likely given the amount of cold air present.  Biggest ZR amounts will be just north of 20 in SC over to outside of Wilmington. 40 north probably sees 6"+ snow totals, plus a good bit of sleet....prediction on my end is based on living in the region and having seen this setup several times a decade....it isn't all that common- especially with the magnitude of cold present

 

Fwiw- metadata beats any probabilistic model 100% of the time (I have worked with probabilistic models for 20 years in health science and finance, as well as created them), simply because metadata has already occurred- so take a look at METARS totals from the DFW area starting Friday PM, and you will have a really great crystal ball as to what is going to play out in the Carolinas, at least around Charlotte.  I wouldn't hold much stock in any model run this far out, outside of the overall probabilitstic signal (major CAD/winter storm for the region)- there will be some major fluctuations- lot of noise, wo specifics....L/T AI will generally improve predictive value on the majors, but it has to learn first.  Also a testament to how fantastically bad some of these models actually are to start out with- when you have almost unlimited computational power, much of what you are seeing in terms of run to run discrepancy should have already been smoothed out by now to some extent.  I have seen rapid smoothing and a huge increase in model robustness in industries with an even larger variable set and more complex scope of data, simply bc the existing models gave AI a much better starting point.....

 

Good luck to everyone on this, and make sure your loved ones have access to heat and electricity/generator.  Also have a gutter company on speed dial- a 5" gutter spike into fascia will not hold up with that amount of sleet/ice over a 25' run...I have been meaning to put up gutter guards for about a year- I think I will get the ladder out before Friday and get it done 

 

 

[UpStateCAD]

good point

[burgertime]

4 minutes ago, DTP said:

Having lived around CLT (Highland Creek, Harrisburg, and Tega Cay) for 25 years, I have seen the same setup quite a few times at this point.  If you are in CLT and want 100% snow, it probably won't happen- very low probability,  even north of 85.  If you like sleet. and lots of it- this is your storm; it will be the predominant p-type south of 40 down to a Chester/Union/Greenwood line.  South of that, mostly ZR down to the coastal plain.

The depth of cold air is extremely impressive for a CAD event; this has not deviated substantially on any of the models. Yes, a warm nose can and will wreak havoc on a pure snow event, but it is always a big feature in dammimg events- no way around it in most of these scenarios. However, if you have aome sort of frozen atw down to Wilmington and MB, and have a strong CAD signature going to NE Alabama, you are going to have high-impact winter storm from I-20 north. 

 

N Texas has different topo than the Carolinas, but the manner in which cold moves southward in an event like this is somewhat similar to a CAD event in our region (I grew up 20 min north of Dallas).  Deeper cold layer the further north you go, shallower as you go south from the Red River.  Backdoor front with NE winds during CAD is fairly similar to a blue norther with attendant instability and p-types as the cold filters in, especially with how the track of this low is modeled.  So you have WSW almost down to Austin at this point- that is a much deeper layer of cold around Dallas (upper teens by late Saturday).  Start as rain, then fr rain, then goes to a mix of frozen with predominantly sleet, and quite a bit of sleet from what I am seeing.  Most likely the same scenario in and around CLT, as our modeled temps are pretty similar in this setup.  

Thinking maybe 2-3" of snow in CLT, 3-4" of sleet, and minimal freezing rain- sure, you can have freezing rain in the upper teens/low 20's here, but it isn't likely given the amount of cold air present.  Biggest ZR amounts will be just north of 20 in SC over to outside of Wilmington. 40 north probably sees 6"+ snow totals, plus a good bit of sleet....prediction on my end is based on living in the region and having seen this setup several times a decade....it isn't all that common- especially with the magnitude of cold present

 

Fwiw- metadata beats any probabilistic model 100% of the time (I have worked with probabilistic models for 20 years in health science and finance, as well as created them), simply because metadata has already occurred- so take a look at METARS totals from the DFW area starting Friday PM, and you will have a really great crystal ball as to what is going to play out in the Carolinas, at least around Charlotte.  I wouldn't hold much stock in any model run this far out, outside of the overall probabilitstic signal (major CAD/winter storm for the region)- there will be some major fluctuations- lot of noise, wo specifics....L/T AI will generally improve predictive value on the majors, but it has to learn first.  Also a testament to how fantastically bad some of these models actually are to start out with- when you have almost unlimited computational power, much of what you are seeing in terms of run to run discrepancy should have already been smoothed out by now to some extent.  I have seen rapid smoothing and a huge increase in model robustness in industries with an even larger variable set and more complex scope of data, simply bc the existing models gave AI a much better starting point.....

 

Good luck to everyone on this, and make sure your loved ones have access to heat and electricity/generator.  Also have a gutter company on speed dial- a 5" gutter spike into fascia will not hold up with that amount of sleet/ice over a 25' run...I have been meaning to put up gutter guards for about a year- I think I will get the ladder out before Friday and get it done 

 

 

Very good post! That's also a likely scenario. 

[wncsnow]

The model that is going to replace the NAM (RRFS) is also trending out west towards the Euro. Writing is on the wall folks. 

[StoneColdWeatherAustin]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I disagree, wasn’t one model run. The storm has been lost on everything but GFS in terms of snow and that’s a trend since yesterday morning. 0z just confirmed it

I never said one model run.  I said living and dying off each model run.  Melting down has its own thread.  I woke up this morning and read several pages of meltdowns. 

[HKY_WX]

The main difference in the models overnight was the piece of energy over Alberta. It is acting as a kicker, scooping out the baha low and phasing in behind it. This allows the SLP to gain some latitude and get into the interior deep south before transferring offshore NC (This will happen due to the cold air physics). Pretty much a classic Miller B vs the more Miller A setup we were seeing 24 hours ago. For a snow scenario in the south, you ideally want that PV lob to be sitting over New England vs southern Canada. This will bring more WAA aloft (aka more ZR/IP). It could also setup a screw zone in the area around/outside the CAD pocket. (Or non-screw zone if you like have heat/power).

NC IMBY -- Since this will be a 48 hour event, the hope for snow in NC, per my thinking yesterday, is we get a wave of WAA snow/overrunning far out ahead of the main SLP. This would allow for some snow before the WAA aloft kicks in as the SLP draws near. Otherwise this will be sleet/ZR fest for the favored areas. Highly skeptical this will be anything other an frozen/freezing precip in the NC CAD areas.

[olafminesaw]

RGEM is showing a wide stripe of sleet with a more narrow zone of ZR in the deep south. Once it is in range, it will be a key model to watch 

[SnowDawg]

34 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Is the HP really going to be that transient? I mean christ it's solid as heck comparatively to the norm..

I think the TPV lobe wanting to exit stage right so quickly is what is reducing suppression and letting that HP just get caught in the flow and slide out. 

Side note, 6z Euro did tick back towards less interaction out west. Need a lot obviously, but trends gotta start somewhere I guess.

[Brick Tamland]

ICON looked like it ticked a bit south to me. 

[Brick Tamland]

[Blacksburg Coach]

Two high pressure areas are further north and weaker. Today it's showing a 1044 over ND and a 1042 just above NY. 24 hrs ago we had a 1048 high over ND and a 1040 sitting in the middle of New England. Move probably contributing to the continued northern shift of our system.

 

[BooneWX]

2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

I think the TPV lobe wanting to exit stage right so quickly is what is reducing suppression and letting that HP just get caught in the flow and slide out. 

Side note, 6z Euro did tick back towards less interaction out west. Need a lot obviously, but trends gotta start somewhere I guess.

At this point, I want that northern energy to keep ticking west. It could miss the southern stream completely by doing so.

[Snowncanes]

Long time lurker first time poster. ICON a looks a little better with regards to the phasing out west. IMO thats our biggest player at the moment. HP is here and even though it’s a bit transient at the end, still cold enough. We just need the storm to phase less/slower out west. Little differences out there make big differences here.