January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[HWY316wx]

Just now, 1bert1 said:

I remember Lookout from when this forum was eastern weather. Time flies!

Lookout was a good one.  I hate he's not around these parts anymore.

[lilj4425]

9 minutes ago, Snowberd said:

Greenville/Spartanburg gets shut out completely with this run. 1.6" snow, and dry? Didn't see that coming since the Euro ghosted us


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GSP is mostly sleet on the GFS. 

[neatlburbwthrguy]

Any sleet in ATL on gfs or all freezing rain? 

[HWY316wx]

1 minute ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

Any sleet in ATL on gfs or all freezing rain? 

Tons of sleet.  I don't have the model total but it was mainly sleet for the typical CAD prone areas all the way into Atlanta.

 

[Thrasher Fan]

These are 7AM Est Tuesday temps as depicted on the 0z GFS. Not likely to verify but should provide a small glimpse into the blocking that is sliding into place.

[BornAgain13]

UK is north as well. Not a good trend right now yall. Hopefully we can turn it around tomorrow. 

[wncsnow]

UK literally could turn us all over to rain. Huge western trough.

[WXNewton]

The UKMET is UGLY and it ain't got no alibi...plows straight through the wedge, we are one step away from a squall line. 

[Thrasher Fan]

3 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

The UKMET is UGLY and it ain't got no alibi...plows straight through the wedge, we are one step away from a squall line. 

Nonsense model. I trust the ICON more than whatever that thing is spitting out.

[lilj4425]

Ukie is like when do the tornado watches go up?

[DC2Winston]

Well this escalated quickly in the wrong direction…


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[BornAgain13]

0z GEFS was a slight bump north but basically held from 18z.

[BornAgain13]

We need the bleeding to stop even at this juncture

[Coach McGuirk]

Damn, UKMET is mostly all rain here. 

[JoshM]

From the NYC thread but relevant for us as well:

   19 minutes ago,  TriPol said: 

A primary that survives all the way to Erie in this pattern is structurally suspect. It requires the cold dome to retreat faster than the synoptic setup allows. The 1032 mb high to the west is not a paper tiger. It is feeding low-level cold and keeping the boundary pinned south and east. Primaries do not just waltz through that without consequences.

Ukie keeping it mostly snow in NYC while dragging the primary to Erie is internally inconsistent. If the primary truly gets that far north and west, the low-level flow into NYC backs too much from the south. You do not get to keep a clean snow profile and a strong inland primary at the same time. One of those has to give.

What usually gives is the primary.

In reality, with this kind of trough geometry and thickness field, the inland low weakens earlier. Energy transfers near the coast. The inland center becomes a bag of isobars and stops mattering. That is exactly the evolution the GFS, Euro, and most ensembles favor in similar regimes.

Ukie has a known bias here. It over-amplifies inland primaries in cold-dominant patterns, especially at this lead time. It often delays or underplays the transfer, then corrects late when the coastal baroclinic zone asserts itself. La la land is not an unfair description.

[HWY316wx]

1 minute ago, JoshM said:

 

From the NYC thread but relevant for us as well:

   19 minutes ago,  TriPol said: 

A primary that survives all the way to Erie in this pattern is structurally suspect. It requires the cold dome to retreat faster than the synoptic setup allows. The 1032 mb high to the west is not a paper tiger. It is feeding low-level cold and keeping the boundary pinned south and east. Primaries do not just waltz through that without consequences.

Ukie keeping it mostly snow in NYC while dragging the primary to Erie is internally inconsistent. If the primary truly gets that far north and west, the low-level flow into NYC backs too much from the south. You do not get to keep a clean snow profile and a strong inland primary at the same time. One of those has to give.

What usually gives is the primary.

In reality, with this kind of trough geometry and thickness field, the inland low weakens earlier. Energy transfers near the coast. The inland center becomes a bag of isobars and stops mattering. That is exactly the evolution the GFS, Euro, and most ensembles favor in similar regimes.

Ukie has a known bias here. It over-amplifies inland primaries in cold-dominant patterns, especially at this lead time. It often delays or underplays the transfer, then corrects late when the coastal baroclinic zone asserts itself. La la land is not an unfair description.

That last line is gold.  Gold star for that guy.  LOL!  The UKMET is hot garbage.

[WiseWeather]

From the NYC thread but relevant for us as well:

   19 minutes ago,  TriPol said:  A primary that survives all the way to Erie in this pattern is structurally suspect. It requires the cold dome to retreat faster than the synoptic setup allows. The 1032 mb high to the west is not a paper tiger. It is feeding low-level cold and keeping the boundary pinned south and east. Primaries do not just waltz through that without consequences.
Ukie keeping it mostly snow in NYC while dragging the primary to Erie is internally inconsistent. If the primary truly gets that far north and west, the low-level flow into NYC backs too much from the south. You do not get to keep a clean snow profile and a strong inland primary at the same time. One of those has to give.
What usually gives is the primary.
In reality, with this kind of trough geometry and thickness field, the inland low weakens earlier. Energy transfers near the coast. The inland center becomes a bag of isobars and stops mattering. That is exactly the evolution the GFS, Euro, and most ensembles favor in similar regimes.
Ukie has a known bias here. It over-amplifies inland primaries in cold-dominant patterns, especially at this lead time. It often delays or underplays the transfer, then corrects late when the coastal baroclinic zone asserts itself. La la land is not an unfair description.

So we can step back off the ledge as stop listening to creed?


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[LakeNormanStormin]

1 minute ago, WiseWeather said:

So we can step back off the ledge as stop listening to creed?


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Third Eye Blind time

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, WiseWeather said:

So we can step back off the ledge as stop listening to creed?


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If the 2006 JMA can predict a record-breaking blizzard for NYC 2 weeks in advance... you never say never about any weather model. Though, the chances of the UKie verifying are statistically improbable. 

[Thrasher Fan]

Some minor, early on changes to the Euro out to 60. Let's see where this goes...

[LakeNormanStormin]

Just now, Thrasher Fan said:

Some minor, early on changes to the Euro out to 60. Let's see where this goes...

Blow into the dice please

[kvegas-wx]

2 minutes ago, LakeNormanStormin said:

Blow into the dice please

We're not playing Yahtzee here.  So get ready to crap out.

[JoshM]

Look away kids, it's warmer and further North

[lilj4425]

1 minute ago, JoshM said:

Look away kids, it's warmer and further North

LOL. This is hilarious. Went from three feet of snow to probably 35 and rain. Pennsylvania won’t even see snow at this rate. 

[Thrasher Fan]

Just now, JoshM said:

Look away kids, it's warmer and further North

Indeed. Quite a war we have playing out here...

[LakeNormanStormin]

Just now, JoshM said:

Look away kids, it's warmer and further North

"Same as it ever was..."

Talking Heads were visionaries 

[JoshM]

CAD, bless it's heart, holds barely

[LakeNormanStormin]

We had our weather porn.

 

And then reality set in for the win.

[JoshM]

By 126, it's rain and outta here.

[kvegas-wx]

The post mortem on this needs to be heavily discussed.  We cannot fall for this again.  Epic model failures for it to be 72-96 hours out.