January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[Brick Tamland]

Y'all are freaking out when the models still showing a foot of snow in places in NC.

[PackGrad05]

Still a lot of time, but not the trends you want to see at this stage if you're a snow lover in central piedmont.  

18Z EURO ejection looked much different

[wncsnow]

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

Y'all are freaking out when the models still showing a foot of snow in places in NC.

Euro doesn't snow much in NC this run brick. 75% ice

[lilj4425]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Y'all are freaking out when the models still showing a foot of snow in places in NC.

Look at the trends. It moves north every run. At this rate, only Washington DC will see snow.

[ADB83]

The Euro is not the model you want to hope is wrong. No model is perfect including that one. But that’s not the one I would want to be rooting against. 

[PackGrad05]

NWS and local mets lean heavily toward EURO.  Expect their forecasts to shift accordingly.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Y'all are freaking out when the models still showing a foot of snow in places in NC.

 

Just now, lilj4425 said:

Look at the trends. It moves north every run. At this rate, only Washington DC will see snow.

Yea Euro is almost 100% an ice event 

[suzook]

5 minutes ago, DeltaPilot said:

I think for us here around ATL and just south, the problem with the models is how they handle the sleet/snow thing. I think we mix in the very beginning for a while, then the sleetfest and the freezing rain. The Models predicting total snowfall are likely really sleet totals, which is kind of insane. 3-4 inches of sleet followed by freezing rain will be devastating. Im kinda hoping for the sleet thing. The freezing rain setup looks really bad here. Fingers crossed.

 

 Sleet is ugly, snow is not. Freezing rain just outright sucks.

Yup, we truly could be screwed here over the weekend. Could be without power for days. Just imagine all the pools with frozen pipes, and houses also. Truly a nightmare if it happens.

[Thrasher Fan]

ZR has been consistent on the GFS for several runs now. Disaster. 

[BornAgain13]

18z Euro is a lot of ice. Not good. 

[buckeyefan1]

18z euro

 

[SnowDawg]

Warning signs for this have been pretty clear since last night. Need big changes soon with the handling of the upper level energy.

[Brick Tamland]

One Euro run shows ice. GFS was great for most of NC. Models will still probably go back and forth the next couple of days. 

[wncsnow]

DC always finds a way to win

[wncsnow]

I do wonder if new upper air data was ingested or something. Its quite a drastic jump.

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said:

18z euro

 

That is a big jump in one run for the Euro. A jump that big in one run makes me think it could be an outlier.

[KChuck]

7 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Look at the trends. It moves north every run. At this rate, only Washington DC will see snow.

Not with the large island of hot air there they won't

[ADB83]

That is a LOT of ice. It’s been clear for a couple of days we were gonna get our first big winter storm in a while. It is starting to look like a major ice storm. A bummer and on top of that dangerous. So much precipitation, it’s going to be frozen precipitation. I’d rather rain than ice, but I don’t think that’s a possibility. Oh boy lol

[BooneWX]

The Euro pulled off an elusive triple phase, which is why it jumped so far north. Not saying that can’t happen, because it can, but a triple phase would be insanely hard. 

[PackGrad05]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

One Euro run shows ice. GFS was great for most of NC. Models will still probably go back and forth the next couple of days. 

Yes, but as others have said, the TREND over the past 24 hours has been clear.  A shift north with the snow/mix line.  

This EURO was indeed a huge shift and may bounce back, but the overall trend is clear.  

[franklin NCwx]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

I do wonder if new upper air data was ingested or something. Its quite a drastic jump.

Why live in the NC mtns when you can live in ocean city maryland and somehow get twice as much snow

[wncsnow]

Just now, franklin NCwx said:

Why live in the NC mtns when you can live in ocean city maryland and somehow get twice as much snow

Super frustrating. But I've lived in Maryland and don't plan on moving back. I will take the mountains 

[WiseWeather]

Tbh i think the euro is underestimating the strength of the high pressure thats why it looks so wonky. Just my opinion though.


.

[NorthHillsWx]

Euro brings the mix line almost to DC. Discount it if you want but this storm has mega bust potential if these trends continue. Like that doesn’t even snow until the border. I’m shocked it jumped that far north and would hope it’s done but my goodness that’s two huge north jumps in a row for the king

[wncsnow]

EPS is amped too. What a bummer. Time to take a break. 

[PackGrad05]

Surface temps rebound quite a bit as well on the EURO.  12Z temps never got much past mid 20s in Wake.  18Z temps are up to freezing or just above.  Would limit ice accrual.  

[mstr4j]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Euro brings the mix line almost to DC. Discount it if you want but this storm has mega bust potential if these trends continue. Like that doesn’t even snow until the border. I’m shocked it jumped that far north and would hope it’s done but my goodness that’s two huge north jumps in a row for the king

I'd rather it bust and keep going north than this shit - SE of United States where everyone is already skeptical of winter weather and unprepared.  Old people die in this setup...needs to just move on out of here - so freaking catastrophic and dangerous.  Life threatening

[andyhb]

That run is an absolute disaster for the Carolinas ice wise, particularly upstate SC, Charlotte, and most of the Triad/Research Triangle metros.

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, wncsnow said:

EPS is amped too. What a bummer. Time to take a break. 

Yep. I’m gonna lay off for the night and see if anything trends back in our favor by morning. Feels like we lost it today, only model holdout is the GFS. Can buy a phase for 7 years then get one that costs us everything. We’ve seen trends reverse but problem here is the north trend has accelerated 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

Surface temps rebound quite a bit as well on the EURO.  12Z temps never got much past mid 20s in Wake.  18Z temps are up to freezing or just above.  Would limit ice accrual.  

With that storm track I’d be shocked if it didn’t go to regular old cold rain Raleigh-east