January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[olafminesaw]

You could not draw up a better run at 12z than the GFS for Central NC. You don't even see runs like that in fantasy range

[WXNewton]

GFS takes the wedge all the way to the Panhandle almost...Unbelievable!

[franklin NCwx]

1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said:

This was might thought yesterday morning on where the sweet spot would be

[phishbfm]

Someone kick the GFS, it's stuck.

[Thrasher Fan]

Blocking is winning out on this GFS run. The over running precip is a firehose too. It just keeps going and going.

[DeltaPilot]

Rare to see the wedge so far SW and W of where I am in most winter set ups.  Im almost on top of KFFC, Peachtree city, GA.  Normally we are usually right on the line but not with this one on most models.

[BooneWX]

Only caveat to watch with the GFS is that it notoriously struggles with Baja low interactions. 

[Brick Tamland]

NC might stay all snow this time except for the SE part of the state.

[BooneWX]

My goodness. Still snowing at hr 126

[WXNewton]

Well we all blew through page 22 quickly!

[KrummWx]

Colder aloft too, r/s line went south

[Brick Tamland]

Yeah, over 24 hours of snow for most of NC.

[buckeyefan1]

12z gfs

 

 

[SnowDawg]

Good trend but not necessarily one you wanna see too much more of. As GSP put in their morning discussion this is still on the table, albeit low probability.

The main point is that yes, the model
guidance is signaling for a potential winter storm stretching over
the weekend. There is also the possibility for the area of high
pressure to extend further south, which also could cutoff
precipitation chances entirely.

[wncsnow]

Its almost like the Baja low is a big old glass of sweet tea stuck to grandma's dining room table and the confluence is sucking out the sweet goodness and pulling it across the SE instead of grabbing it 

[BooneWX]

Jan 1988

[phishbfm]

[Stormpc]

Great run for all. Rather see it flatter and more south than amped. Much broader precip field extending well to the Southwest into texas. I'm in Currituck North Carolina so it's either rain or snow for me. We don't do ice over here.

[burgertime]

The p-type radar on GFS in insane. I'd post a gif but I've forgotten how to embed them on here. 

 

[burgertime]

1 minute ago, phishbfm said:

Beat me to it. That is just nuts. Even cutting the QPF in half (which is likely) that's still blanketing most of NC in 7 or 8 inch snow. 

[Thrasher Fan]

0z GFS 93h-147h and moisture still coming. WHAT!???

[BooneWX]

Omg round 2

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, SnowDawg said:

Good trend but not necessarily one you wanna see too much more of. As GSP put in their morning discussion this is still on the table, albeit low probability.

The main point is that yes, the model
guidance is signaling for a potential winter storm stretching over
the weekend. There is also the possibility for the area of high
pressure to extend further south, which also could cutoff
precipitation chances entirely.

Yeah QPF is less but that's the trade-off. It's good when our worries about too suppressed and to amplified are both equally in play. As you allude to, I do think suppression is the bigger concern at this point of the two

[burgertime]

South Carolina gets a whallop before it's said and done with. Columbia look out! 

[Brick Tamland]

Still snowing in SC, GA and AL at hour 150. Storm lasts for at least 48 hours on the GFS.

[ADB83]

Pretty weird to see this much model agreement run after run. Pretty clear at this point there’s gonna be a significant winter event of some kind for North Carolina and other areas in the southeast. Been a long time since an event like this, i’m enjoying the ride(as long as it’s not freezing rain) 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

While GFS is overdoing the cold, it’s likely some places in the NC and VA Piedmont will go below zero if there is snow cover.

[Brick Tamland]

I think even the GFS can't believe it. It keeps getting stuck. 

[Thrasher Fan]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

I think even the GFS can't believe it. It keeps getting stuck. 

If you are on Pivotal, I think its a traffic issue. Beta is doing okay

[phishbfm]

This thing goes on so long the gifs are too big to show the whole thing...