January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[olafminesaw]

If everyone (a reminder to myself as well) could try and put your posts in the context of a location  that will help make the discussion clearer. What is good for southern VA is not necessarily good for northern GA

[buckeyefan1]

Ya’ll, it’s now pinned. Could someone PLEASE start a sanitarium thread for one liners, complaints, etc so we can keep this thread clean for information? Also, could ya’ll put locations and for those lurking, please keep in mind where that poster is located. 

[suzook]

9 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Speaking through a NC lens mostly:

I think at this point I feel pretty confident in verifying some sort of winter storm across the region this weekend but man are the red flags apparent. AI models have been outperforming the globals and to no surprise (or with our luck), of course they’re north with the coldest air and snow as the warm nose rages during the event. 
 

Last thought: for someone this will be an ice storm for the ages. Idc if the HP is over upstate NY, Ottawa, Iowa, whatever. It’s going to be somewhere in a favorable position and it’s going to be strong. This favors an abnormally large area of mixed precip and stupidly low temps being fed by a steady pump of cold, dry air. Remember, freezing rain is self limited if the cad is in-situ, but not when it’s an anchored HP to the north. Latent heat release can’t compete with that much caa. We’re talking nightmare type of stuff. Sometimes it helps if the precip is heavy, but in the mid 20s, that won’t matter either. 

I was noticing the AI models pushing the warmth further north. Was surprised no one posted about it. I guess we only post what we want to see. I am sure the next 5 days will be a rollercoaster as usual. I just hope we can keep that ZR down at a minimal amount. The Euro AI is actually showing some warmish temps through the storm to keep ice totals down. Should be an interesting week to track.

[NorthHillsWx]

5 minutes ago, suzook said:

I was noticing the AI models pushing the warmth further north. Was surprised no one posted about it. I guess we only post what we want to see. I am sure the next 5 days will be a rollercoaster as usual. I just hope we can keep that ZR down at a minimal amount. The Euro AI is actually showing some warmish temps through the storm to keep ice totals down. Should be an interesting week to track.

AI models did well this past weekend with temps. Different setup entirely but both kept central NC in 40s for most of storm while others were way too quick to cool

[HWY316wx]

17 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Ya’ll, it’s now pinned. Could someone PLEASE start a sanitarium thread for one liners, complaints, etc so we can keep this thread clean for information? Also, could ya’ll put locations and for those lurking, please keep in mind where that poster is located. 

Done.

 

[eyewall]

A lot will depend on how shallow the airmass is of course with the CAD in place. What we have going for us is the fact that there will be a parent high to begin with. The players are there for sure in looking at the models but as always we need everything to line up perfectly for blockbuster snows. We will see how this plays out. Even if there is some mixing I always remind people that 1/25/00 started off with many hours of rain before the massive snowfall. 

[WXNewton]

The thought of someone getting NAM'ed starting tomorrow night makes it start to feel even more real. 

[suzook]

11 minutes ago, eyewall said:

A lot will depend on how shallow the airmass is of course with the CAD in place. What we have going for us is the fact that there will be a parent high to begin with. The players are there for sure in looking at the models but as always we need everything to line up perfectly for blockbuster snows. We will see how this plays out. Even if there is some mixing I always remind people that 1/25/00 started off with many hours of rain before the massive snowfall. 

My area in GA is forecast for mid to upper 50's Wed through Friday, then temps dropping. That might be good for me as far as ice is concerned. Wishful thinking??

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BornAgain13]

Mid Atlantic crew are hoping the AI models are right... obviously they are further north. Will be interesting to see which way things go the next couple of days. 

[Brick Tamland]

I like the Google model. Looks somewhere in the middle of the road with the AI models and the OG GFS and Euro. Probably get a mixed bag of things in central NC with more snow the farther north you are to more ice the farther south you are. Pretty much a classic NC witnter storm.

[SnowDawg]

I don’t really know what to think at this moment. I still think physics based models are better suited here than AI this time because of the AI tendency to underestimate high intensity, be it LPs or HPs. But they are always learning, and that very bias could be lessening as they ingest more data.
 

Really sucks to be sitting here with the best overall solution being the GFS again though. Seen that movie one too many times lately. But please just give me sleet or a warm rain above all that ice. 

[BooneWX]

Amazing volatility despite the overall consistency in the signal. Ensembles incrementally dropping south on the physics models and the exact opposite on the AI models. This storm will either crown a new king or signify that more learning and work will need to be done. 

[Met1985]

I wouldn't Bank anything on the AI models currently. They've not done well at all.

[BooneWX]

3 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I wouldn't Bank anything on the AI models currently. They've not done well at all.

I’m not banking on any model. None have done well

[Met1985]

Just now, BooneWX said:

I’m not banking on any model. None have done well

Exactly. 

[olafminesaw]

Icon jumped north, more Euro-like. 

I tend to think of the AI models as predictive of a way to show the most likely direction the OP models will trend. I would tend to think significant snowfall is much more likely North of Charlotte 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

He said for inland North Carolina north, there is no question that the precipitation will be frozen. It will be really cold to ensure this is a frozen event. Obviously, the big question is what form of frozen precipitation will predominate.

[WXNewton]

I think if you look at the ensembles from the Euro and GFS they are pretty much in agreement with each other at this point as far as snowfall totals go. Once we get in the 48-hour range, I would almost bet whatever the EPS shows you can about take it to the bank. 

[Brick Tamland]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Brick Tamland]

GFS AI looks colder now.

[SnowDawg]

GFS AI slowly but surely catching on to the strength of the HP. The AI models almost act like ensembles as far as smoothing things out, just smoothing against historical data as opposed to other members. 

[WXNewton]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

GFS AI looks colder now.

I was just getting ready to say that coming in further south this run.

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

GFS AI looks colder now.

Huge jump south of 6z

[BornAgain13]

Awesome jump south on the AI GFS

[Brick Tamland]

Yeah, colder further south on the GFS AI this time.

[olafminesaw]

OP GFS pushing the HP further south this run. Not going to be an amped solution for sure

[wncsnow]

IF the high is anywhere close as strong as being modeled, it should continue to shift south slightly. 

[SnowDawg]

Since we should have CAD this go around too, when is the last time it hasn’t trended stronger/colder the closer we get? Seems like as long as the HP is there the CAD verifies deeper and colder than modeled and saves a lot of us in that region from significant ZR.