Rise of the Machines: January 18-19 Winter Storm Obs Thread

[moneypitmike]

Just got back to up to PVD.  It was 34* and -sn/rn when I left, and was snowing pretty good from Fair Haven up  to some point past Fall River, but nothing was sticking.

Caca here in PVD.  Nothing coming down, very little left from earlier.

[weatherwiz]

This evening is going to be fun and across a large area. I really feel like this could overperform somewhere and we could see some 7-10" totals, especially if we get a good mlvl fronto band to setup. As Ray has mentioned multiple times, the late closing off at 850 is a little concerning but bufkit soundings are pretty damn good looking. 

This is 16z HRRR for ORH. While I would like to see some lower omega values to consider rates at or exceeding 1.5" the depth of the DGZ and likely efficiency of the snow growth could make this very possible. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This evening is going to be fun and across a large area. I really feel like this could overperform somewhere and we could see some 7-10" totals, especially if we get a good mlvl fronto band to setup. As Ray has mentioned multiple times, the late closing off at 850 is a little concerning but bufkit soundings are pretty damn good looking. 

This is 16z HRRR for ORH. While I would like to see some lower omega values to consider rates at or exceeding 1.5" the depth of the DGZ and likely efficiency of the snow growth could make this very possible. 

Don’t think the rates are there for a lot of warning amounts. But there will def be some good snow growth I think got a few hours this evening. 

[Sled]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

5” total here. If I can grab 5 more tonight.. that’s a huge W

Wow. I just plowed my inlaws in Willington and they had maybe 2".

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Don’t think the rates are there for a lot of warning amounts. But there will def be some good snow growth I think got a few hours this evening. 

I feel like box has outlined this well. Someone could sneak in a 7-8” amount, probably somewhere in Bobs hood would be my guess. And they’ve shown this on their map

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Don’t think the rates are there for a lot of warning amounts. But there will def be some good snow growth I think got a few hours this evening. 

Yeah any warning amounts would probably be too isolated or localized to really justify a warning. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Sled said:

Wow. I just plowed my inlaws in Willington and they had maybe 2".

There was a pretty tight gradient yesterday from N and W of 84 to S And E. Though UConn campus today had 3-4”. They must be in South Willington?

https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?zoom=8&lat=41.64&lon=-71.61&hr=24

[WxWatcher007]

.5" here with the first round. 

[tomcatct]

Snow pickimg up nicely down here in Trumbull..( sw ct)..got about 2 inches this morning

[CoastalWx]

-RASN. 35.

[moneypitmike]

I didn't see this posted......here's the 17z HRRR total qpf.  Big bust at Pit2.

[moneypitmike]

It's picking up a little here in PVD.  Radar suggest the snow I experienced driving back is continuing--and probably intensified.  Hopefully it's started to stick as it was 33/34 when I had left Mattapoisett.

[SouthCoastMA]

Hi of 35, temp starting to drop - 33.3°

[Sled]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There was a pretty tight gradient yesterday from N and W of 84 to S And E. Though UConn campus today had 3-4”. They must be in South Willington?

https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?zoom=8&lat=41.64&lon=-71.61&hr=24

Yea, east of UConn off 44 between Mansfield and Ashford.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Hi of 35, temp starting to drop - 33.3°

Maybe deeper lift going? 34.9 here.

[TalcottWx]

I'm not seeing 4-6" here, I would be surprised if that verified. I think Kevin to Steve has a much better shot at that. I'm hoping for a Scooter jack, which sounds disturbing out loud. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, TalcottWx said:

I'm not seeing 4-6" here, I would be surprised if that verified. I think Kevin to Steve has a much better shot at that. I'm hoping for a Scooter jack, which sounds disturbing out loud. 

You’ll need ratios to get that much. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

You can see the broader precip shield beginning to expand and push northward.

[CoastalWx]

I think you’re starting to see some echoes now in NJ. HRRR really developed that in a couple of hours. That’s what to watch I think. 

[Sled]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There was a pretty tight gradient yesterday from N and W of 84 to S And E. Though UConn campus today had 3-4”. They must be in South Willington?

https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?zoom=8&lat=41.64&lon=-71.61&hr=24

I see 1.5" at UConn on this map? I didn't drive through there but drove through gurleyville which is just a mile east and no way there was 3" on the ground there.

[CoastalWx]

And I don’t know if this will happen, but the HRRR trend from 12 Z until now is to have more precip hanging back after like 3 to 4 AM.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Sled said:

I see 1.5" at UConn on this map? I didn't drive through there but drove through gurleyville which is just a mile east and no way there was 3" on the ground there.

Moved one of my daughters back there today and there was easily 3-4 .. They’d had a new inch this morning on sidewalks etc 

[CoastalWx]

Then again I feel like it’s tugged east a bit with total QPF 

[moneypitmike]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Then again I feel like it’s tugged east a bit with total QPF 

I don't think that's a 'feel'.  It has.

[CarverWX]

Rates are definitely picking up almost moderate now

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, CarverWX said:

Rates are definitely picking up almost moderate now

sticking??

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And I don’t know if this will happen, but the HRRR trend from 12 Z until now is to have more precip hanging back after like 3 to 4 AM.

That’s good stuff too. Not super heavy but prob a much colder BL near the coast by that point with steep lapse rates and decent snow growth with lots of salt nuclei on those IVT lower level lift setups. Kind of thing where you can weasel another 1-2” out of 0.07 QPF or something. 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s good stuff too. Not super heavy but prob a much colder BL near the coast by that point with steep lapse rates and decent snow growth with lots of salt nuclei on those IVT lower level lift setups. Kind of thing where you can weasel another 1-2” out of 0.07 QPF or something. 

Not sure I am a fan of that WCB stuff south of LI not really bulging north. Almost wants to slide east. Hope that stuff in NJ blossoms.

[CarverWX]

6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

sticking??

Yes It's starting to again. Temp down to 33

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, CarverWX said:

Yes It's starting to again. Temp down to 33

You're in a good spot. slightly colder so you'll lose less at the start