Jan 17-18 Sunday Funday Storm

[NorthHillsWx]

I can say with strong confidence that if that GFS run was reality you’d be hard pressed to find a slushy inch anywhere 

[NorthHillsWx]

10 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Awful run:

Typical. GFS is an awful model both ways 

[AppalachianWedge]

Typical. GFS is an awful model both ways 

Unless it shows a crush job. Then it's awesome.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[buckeyefan1]

I see the pile at the bottom of the cliff is growing   

Seems like a good time to post this old people winter folklore I found while looking for JB's weenie stages of heartbreak for @RaleighNC  This probably has just as much truth as the GFS

On 8/19/2020 at 11:11 PM, jburns said:

I am one of those old people of which you speak.  You asked for it. It gets earlier every year.

Top Six Southern Winter Folklore Sayings

1. If you count the morning fogs in August you will know how many August mornings were foggy.

2. A heavy crop of acorns will lead to fatter than average squirrels next spring.

3. If it thunders in winter, 10 days later it will have happened 10 days ago.

4. If you study the bands of the wooly worm you will know how many are brown and how many are black.

5. Snow that lays on the ground for more than three days is dirty.

6. A ring around the moon means your Lasik surgeon screwed up.

•  

 

[SnowDawg]

I’ll be honest, it burns me up that while simultaneously screwing us in the south it’s trending wetter for New England. So it actually is moving west but, yet again, for the thousandth time in the last 4 years it is trending towards being too late of a bloomer for us. What happened to lows forming in the northwestern gulf?

[chapelhill]

Well the column is cold all the way to the warm ground for this 18z GFS run ... Wet, wet snow west of Raleighwood. Cold slushy rain east.

 

[Orange county]

WRAL predicting 34-37 degree snow , sleet Sunday

ugghh

[NorthHillsWx]

Gotta love this hobby. 60 hours out, have one model spitting 6” of snow, a few models showing 45 degree rain, one model oscillating from too far NW to too far east 6” of snow to 1”, one model is completely dry, and then a few 33 degree white rainstorms 

[wncsnow]

At least I can go to bed early tonight 

[Upstate Tiger]

8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

At least I can go to bed early tonight 

Me too…so I can wake up at 11 and watch the models like the rest of you.  

[UnionCountyNCWX]

14 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Me too…so I can wake up at 11 and watch the models like the rest of you.  

As done as I am with this storm....im giving it one more run lol. Then maybe one more. 

[BooneWX]

Needed to hear this one tonight when my daughter turned it on after today’s model runs


.

[NorthHillsWx]

On some of the other forums the mix between hopium and reality should really be studied as the human response to a disaster 

[BooneWX]

6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

On some of the other forums the mix between hopium and reality should really be studied as the human response to a disaster 

I love the switch from “maybe the GFS is leading the way” to “it was never worth trusting.” 

[buckeyefan1]

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

On some of the other forums the mix between hopium and reality should really be studied as the human response to a disaster 

It's been studied and several papers, a couple of thesis and more than a few articles have been written on the subject. In fact, one human used the forum and turned in their paper for a degree   

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

I love the switch from “maybe the GFS is leading the way” to “it was never worth trusting.” 

The model battles are like Alabama or Clemson playing other teams a few years back. All the other models might be frisky or fun and think they have a chance to win but then inevitability sets in and the king asserts itself and they fall in line 

[BooneWX]

9 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The model battles are like Alabama or Clemson playing other teams a few years back. All the others models might be frisky or fun and think they have a chance to win but then inevitably sets in and the king asserts itself and they fall in line 

Good analogy. I’m g5 fan, so I’ll liken it to app state’s death march between 2015-2019

[GaWx]

 Very interesting. Recon is going to be flown out tomorrow afternoon and late tomorrow night to collect extra data to be fed into models probably due to the large disagreement between the King and others: this would affect the 0Z and 12Z runs of 1/17:

[Brick Tamland]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Gotta love this hobby. 60 hours out, have one model spitting 6” of snow, a few models showing 45 degree rain, one model oscillating from too far NW to too far east 6” of snow to 1”, one model is completely dry, and then a few 33 degree white rainstorms 

I guess the mets just go with the one they think is right most of the time. Or maybe just meet somewhere in the middle. But it is crazy how far apart they are less than 72 hours out. It just goes to show how hard it is to predict what will happen when there is a threat of winter weather here 

[Brick Tamland]

7 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Good analogy. I’m g5 fan, so I’ll liken it to app state’s death march between 2015-2019

I liked it better when App was in the FCS division. 

[suzook]

25 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I love the switch from “maybe the GFS is leading the way” to “it was never worth trusting.” 

It is hysterical. Happens often.

[NorthHillsWx]

I’m ready to get NAM’d again. Vibes aren’t good.

[NC US Geological Survice]

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’m ready to get NAM’d again. Vibes aren’t good.

It's gonna wind-shield wiper itself OTS

[Daniel Boone]

56 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I guess the mets just go with the one they think is right most of the time. Or maybe just meet somewhere in the middle. But it is crazy how far apart they are less than 72 hours out. It just goes to show how hard it is to predict what will happen when there is a threat of winter weather here 

Our NWS uses the NBM. I don't know which Models are weighted heaviest within it.

[GaWx]

 18Z Euro would be a dream come true for some S GA snow lovers with a max of 1.2” at Douglas (see below). I’m not betting on that much accumulating there but we’ll see.

 How often has Douglas received 1.2”+? Not very at all as the ~120 year wx history shows only 5 times meaning a 1.2” snowfall there would be ~1 in 25 year occurrence. However, all five have been since 1973 meaning that would be a ~1 in 10 year occurrence over the last 52 years:

2/10/1973: 3.0”

12/22-23/1989: 3.3”

2/13/2010: 1.5”

1/3/2018: ~3”

1/21-2/2025: 4.5”

 

[Maggie Valley Steve]

11 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Our NWS uses the NBM. I don't know which Models are weighted heaviest within it.

GSP does the same along with most WFO's since about 2017 I believe.

[HWY316wx]

35 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 18Z Euro would be a dream come true for some S GA snow lovers with a max of 1.2” at Douglas (see below). I’m not betting on that much accumulating there but we’ll see.

 How often has Douglas received 1.2”+? Not very at all as the ~120 year wx history shows only 5 times meaning a 1.2” snowfall there would be ~1 in 25 year occurrence. However, all five have been since 1973 meaning that would be a ~1 in 10 year occurrence over the last 52 years:

2/10/1973: 3.0”

12/22-23/1989: 3.3”

2/13/2010: 1.5”

1/3/2018: ~3”

1/21-2/2025: 4.5”

 

Looks a lot like the 12Z EURO.

[NC US Geological Survice]

00Z NAM looks a little warmer across NC than the 18Z

[lilj4425]

5 minutes ago, NC US Geological Survice said:

00Z NAM looks a little warmer across NC than the 18Z

Excellent. Now we’re cooking. 

[Brick Tamland]