The 4 Seasons Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 00Z ukmo for some laughs.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 GFSAI 6Z would be warning snows back to the NY boarder...another good bump NW and beefed up is the takeaway though 00Z AIFS also bumped NW good trends along with the 6Z GFS. EC/EPS still the farthest se but going in the right direction just need to see more from that camp, besides the AI stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 and that doesn't include saturday, thats 24hr qpf. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 17 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: it's over, it's done pack it in. 16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lol…I was like wow, he actually posted something that wasn’t a rant. Refreshing. Plenty of time left for that 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Really need the euro suite to come west though. Also, temps are borderline on the coast for a time so it could be wet snow or RASN for a bit until the meat of it comes in. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Plenty of time left for that looking forward to it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 The AI models broad brush the QPF I think due to resolution so my guess is the wrn end has a tighter gradient then depicted. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 It literally snows the entire weekend . Reggie nailed it 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It literally snows the entire weekend . Reggie nailed it I feel like Saturday I’m not to up to speed on, due to seeing what Sunday night does. So What’s the deal for Saturday…a dusting to an inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I feel like Saturday I’m not to up to speed on, due to seeing what Sunday night does. So What’s the deal for Saturday…a dusting to an inch? There's a thread on it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I feel like Saturday I’m not to up to speed on, due to seeing what Sunday night does. So What’s the deal for Saturday…a dusting to an inch? Well there’s a thread but it looks like 1-3” maybe 4 near Ineedsnow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Really nice overnight trends… Although I just watched Bob Maxon and he is not buying 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: There's a thread on it 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well there’s a thread but it looks like 1-3” maybe 4 near Ineedsnow Ok thanks boys…didn’t even realize there was a thread for it. Sorry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Luckily the Saturday stuff is shifting NW to mae way for Sunday night hopefully. I think it’s more of a reflection of the trough allowing a closer pass. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Lots of waffling in the forecast for Sunday p.m. from WTIC on the drive in today. They're going for C-2" s.e. and 2-5" n.w. and western Mass CT for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Tick west on euro but still an outlier. Congrats cape on the euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Euro Skynet ticked west a bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Seems like op euro and eps are the lone outliers at this point to a moderate impact event. Skynet is more in line with rest of guidance. Solid overnight 12hr trend in the positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 630 AFD. Even BOX unsure with AI models Quote KEY MESSAGE 3...Offshore low pressure may bring a plowable snow to portions of the region Sun-Sun night...but the westward extent remains quite uncertain. There still remains considerable uncertainty with the westward extent of a potentially plowable snowfall in association with an offshore low pressure system Sun into Sun night. We normally do not see this much spread in the guidance for a day 3 forecast...but there are so many moving parts. The 00z GFS/NAM/ECMWF operational models keep the low pressure far enough east that taken verbatim would result in very little if any snow ever reaching as far northwest as the Boston to Providence corridor. However...it is more complex than that. We noted that some of the 00z GEFS ensembles have shifted further northwest. In addition...the 00z RGEM/UKMET were considerably further northwest and would bring accumulating snow all the way back across distant interior southern New England. Also of note...is that the GFS/ECMWF AI models continue to be considerably west of the traditional GFS/ECMWF models. These AI models bring a plowable snowfall all the way back across interior southern New England. While we do not have a lot of experience utilizing a lot of the AI guidance...that is certainly concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 gm euro should come in on board by 0z run tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Seems like op euro and eps are the lone outliers at this point to a moderate impact event. Skynet is more in line with rest of guidance. Solid overnight 12hr trend in the positive. 06z OP euro moved a decent amount. It has advisory snows into SE MA now. Just need one more solid tick and a chunk of eastern zones would get in on high end advisory or low end warning stuff. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Very snowy times ahead. Reggie making a comeback from 2015 to lead the model war, joined by a new school of players…the bots. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: 06z OP euro moved a decent amount. It has advisory snows into SE MA now. Just need one more solid tick and a chunk of eastern zones would get in on high end advisory or low end warning stuff. Maybe a storm where First and Final are backed up consecutively...late Fri night/Sat night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 630 AFD. Even BOX unsure with AI models @WinterWolfdid the AFD 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, Kitz Craver said: Really nice overnight trends… Although I just watched Bob Maxon and he is not buying I was in so deep on this no choice but to ride it out and hope for the best....even just a widespread advisory would allow me to save some face. lol 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: distant interior southern New England Deepest darkest New England? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 6z cmc a good hit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was in so deep on this no choice but to ride it out and hope for the best....even just a widespread advisory would allow me to save some face. lol Lol You’re like my boy at the blackjack table…he’s down a G but ain’t getting up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Gfs got better Turned into more of a classic nw to se gradient, which isn't great for me....was hoping it would be more of a longitudinal deal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Lol You’re like my boy at the blackjack table…he’s down a G but ain’t getting up. Well, all I issued was a threat assessment.....but it's still bad practice to have to scale back from that preliminary stuff. I really hedged on mentioning 6"+. Sometimes I play hunches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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