First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[The 4 Seasons]

00Z ukmo for some laughs..

 

[The 4 Seasons]

GFSAI 6Z would be warning snows back to the NY boarder...another good bump NW and beefed up is the takeaway though

00Z AIFS also bumped NW

good trends along with the 6Z GFS. EC/EPS still the farthest se but going in the right direction just need to see more from that camp, besides the AI stuff. 

[The 4 Seasons]

and that doesn't include saturday, thats 24hr qpf. 

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

it's over, it's done pack it in. 

 

16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol…I was like wow, he actually posted something that wasn’t a rant.  Refreshing. 

Plenty of time left for that 

[CoastalWx]

Really need the euro suite to come west though. Also, temps are borderline on the coast for a time so it could be wet snow or RASN for a bit until the meat of it comes in.

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

 

Plenty of time left for that 

looking forward to it. 

[CoastalWx]

The AI models broad brush the QPF I think due to resolution so my guess is the wrn end has a tighter gradient then depicted. 

[Damage In Tolland]

It literally snows the entire weekend . Reggie nailed it 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It literally snows the entire weekend . Reggie nailed it 

I feel like Saturday I’m not to up to speed on, due to seeing what Sunday night does. So What’s the deal for Saturday…a dusting to an inch?  

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I feel like Saturday I’m not to up to speed on, due to seeing what Sunday night does. So What’s the deal for Saturday…a dusting to an inch?  

There's a thread on it

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I feel like Saturday I’m not to up to speed on, due to seeing what Sunday night does. So What’s the deal for Saturday…a dusting to an inch?  

Well there’s a thread but it looks like 1-3” maybe 4 near Ineedsnow 

[Kitz Craver]

Really nice overnight trends… Although I just watched Bob Maxon and he is not buying

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

There's a thread on it

 

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well there’s a thread but it looks like 1-3” maybe 4 near Ineedsnow 

Ok thanks boys…didn’t even realize there was a thread for it. Sorry. 

[CoastalWx]

Luckily the Saturday stuff is shifting NW to mae way for Sunday night hopefully. I think it’s more of a reflection of the trough allowing a closer pass.

[UnitedWx]

Lots of waffling in the forecast for Sunday p.m. from WTIC on the drive in today. They're going for C-2" s.e. and 2-5" n.w. and western Mass CT for tomorrow

[MJO812]

Tick west on euro but still an outlier. Congrats cape on the euro.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro Skynet ticked west a bit 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Seems like op euro and eps are the lone outliers at this point to a moderate impact event. Skynet is more in line with rest of guidance. Solid overnight 12hr trend in the positive.

[Baroclinic Zone]

630 AFD. Even BOX unsure with AI models 

Quote

KEY MESSAGE 3...Offshore low pressure may bring a plowable snow to
portions of the region Sun-Sun night...but the westward extent
remains quite uncertain.

There still remains considerable uncertainty with the westward
extent of a potentially plowable snowfall in association with an offshore
low pressure system Sun into Sun night. We normally do not see this much
spread in the guidance for a day 3 forecast...but there are so many
moving parts. The 00z GFS/NAM/ECMWF operational models keep the low
pressure far enough east that taken verbatim would result in very
little if any snow ever reaching as far northwest as the Boston to
Providence corridor. However...it is more complex than that. We
noted that some of the 00z GEFS ensembles have shifted further
northwest. In addition...the 00z RGEM/UKMET were considerably
further northwest and would bring accumulating snow all the way back
across distant interior southern New England. Also of note...is that
the GFS/ECMWF AI models continue to be considerably west of the
traditional GFS/ECMWF models. These AI models bring a plowable
snowfall all the way back across interior southern New England.
While we do not have a lot of experience utilizing a lot of the AI
guidance...that is certainly concerning.

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

gm

euro should come in on board by 0z run tonight 

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Seems like op euro and eps are the lone outliers at this point to a moderate impact event. Skynet is more in line with rest of guidance. Solid overnight 12hr trend in the positive.

06z OP euro moved a decent amount. It has advisory snows into SE MA now. Just need one more solid tick and a chunk of eastern zones would get in on high end advisory or low end warning stuff. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Very snowy times ahead. Reggie making a comeback from 2015 to lead the model war, joined by a new school of players…the bots.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z OP euro moved a decent amount. It has advisory snows into SE MA now. Just need one more solid tick and a chunk of eastern zones would get in on high end advisory or low end warning stuff. 

Maybe a storm where First and Final are backed up consecutively...late Fri night/Sat night.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

630 AFD. Even BOX unsure with AI models 

 

@WinterWolfdid the AFD

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Kitz Craver said:

Really nice overnight trends… Although I just watched Bob Maxon and he is not buying

I was in so deep on this no choice but to ride it out and hope for the best....even just a widespread advisory would allow me to save some face. lol

[Go Kart Mozart]

11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

distant interior southern New England

Deepest darkest New England?

[ineedsnow]

6z cmc a good hit

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was in so deep on this no choice but to ride it out and hope for the best....even just a widespread advisory would allow me to save some face. lol

Lol You’re like my boy at the blackjack table…he’s down a G but ain’t getting up.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs got better 

Turned into more of a classic nw to se gradient, which isn't great for me....was hoping it would be more of a longitudinal deal.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Lol You’re like my boy at the blackjack table…he’s down a G but ain’t getting up.

Well, all I issued was a threat assessment.....but it's still bad practice to have to scale back from that preliminary stuff. I really hedged on mentioning 6"+. Sometimes I play hunches.