Storm potential January 18th-19th

[Jt17]

way west on gfs ai

.5+ inch qpf for most of the area on gfs AI and 0.4-0.6 inches on gfs (higher further east)- I think we'd all take a cold 5-7 inches of snow


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[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, Jt17 said:

.5+ inch qpf for most of the area on gfs AI and 0.4-0.6 inches on gfs (higher further east)- I think we'd all take a cold 5-7 inches of snow


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cmc 999 bm

[eduggs]

Borderline warning snows on the GDPS for NYC

[WeatherGeek2025]

8 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Borderline warning snows on the GDPS for NYC

canadian shows a much earlier start time around 1am sunday morning, and it's outta here by 7pm sunday meanwhile gfs shows snow starts around 1pm sunday and it snow until about 6am monday. That's a huge difference timeframe wise!

[eduggs]

The GEFS are much wetter along the Gulf in MS, AL, and GA compared to previous runs. This makes sense with the base of the trof further west and approaching the Gulf. Not sure yet if the moisture will translate northward along the coast or shift mostly offshore. Looks like a close call.

[Franklin0529]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The GEFS are much wetter along the Gulf in MS, AL, and GA compared to previous runs. This makes sense with the base of the trof further west and approaching the Gulf. Not sure yet if the moisture will translate northward along the coast or shift mostly offshore. Looks like a close call.

Looks like it gets here. 

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

Looks like it gets here. 

Yup! The GEFS members are clustered well southwest of both 18z and 12z and precipitation is also much further west. Interestingly the mean trof position isn't improved.

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Yup! The GEFS members are clustered well southwest of both 18z and 12z and precipitation is also much further west. Interestingly the mean trof position isn't improved.

does it show a stronger storm?

[Franklin0529]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

does it show a stronger storm?

Yes!! Some really strong members. 

[Franklin0529]

[Franklin0529]

[eduggs]

[Jt17]

A lot gets added between 102 and 108


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[WeatherGeek2025]

thanks Franklin, those ensembles look conservative with the clown maps, i think 80% of those ensembles look like good hits, a couple of inland runners which is probably not gonna happen and a couple of whiffs. We are looking good, knock on wood!

[MJO812]

Gefs look great.  Ukie came west.

[Franklin0529]

Ukie was close but just offshore. Definitely a move towards the GFS though 

[Franklin0529]

I don't need a blizzard. Give me 4-8" snow falling during the football game an I'll be a happy camper 

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

I don't need a blizzard. Give me 4-8" snow falling during the football game an I'll be a happy camper 

i want gfs 12z but 50 miles west! this one is for @snowman19 

[Rjay]

I just got off the phone with snowman19.  He lowkey thinks it's coming. 

[SnowGoose69]

The differences down in AL/GA/SC with the GFS vs like everything else is laughable lol....don't worry guys, 1 inch only shuts those places down

[SnoSki14]

There's a kicker out west that should keep this to our east otherwise this would probably trend too far west. 

[NEG NAO]

59 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Borderline warning snows on the GDPS for NYC

[NEG NAO]

[NEG NAO]

[NEG NAO]

[NEG NAO]

Now 0Z Euro is giving immediate NYC Metro 2 - 3 inches Saturday

[NEG NAO]

0Z Euro is a miss to the east on Sunday. I am thinking but not ready to say it out loud yet that the immediate NYC metro will end up with basically little or nothing total the entire weekend.

[SnoSki14]

49 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

0Z Euro is a miss to the east on Sunday. I am thinking but not ready to say it out loud yet that the immediate NYC metro will end up with basically little or nothing total the entire weekend.

Hard disagree. There's nothing to stop it from trending NW