New Years Day 2026 - 1st snows of the new year possible

[The 4 Seasons]

OKX followed suit no surprise for continuity amongst the CWAs

[Damage In Tolland]

Not the same but it reminded me of this event . What a weenie event 

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

That's what your girlfriend says.

..that was good. 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

WWGW

Lmfao….  That’s crazy funny. 

[The 4 Seasons]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not the same but it reminded me of this event . What a weenie event 

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/mar-22-23-2019

[DavisStraight]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lmfao….  That’s crazy funny. 

He comes up with these memes super quick.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/mar-22-23-2019

I remember models kept showing it and we never fully believed it. The radar had the snow falling over the valley but it all fell over the hills. Was fascinating event . It was torched away less than 2 days later . Here’s that radar 

https://imgur.com/a/E6cdjp4#w4DU9Zm

[klw]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

That seems like a pretty bullish advisory given guidance...

2 to 4 doesn't mean everyone gets 4 unless its Facebook in which case I heard we are getting almost half a foot.

[Tolland Death Band]

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not the same but it reminded me of this event . What a weenie event 

The Tolland Massif’s shining moment. Was that the one where Ryan H was broadcasting from the green?

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Tolland Death Band said:

The Tolland Massif’s shining moment. Was that the one where Ryan H was broadcasting from the green?

I don’t think so . He was here a few different times over the years , but maybe he was for that one 

[The 4 Seasons]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t think so . He was here a few different times over the years , but maybe he was for that one 

Was there another very localized Tolland county event during this time (2016-2020)? Maybe im just thinking of the Mar 2019 storm but i thought there was another one that was even more localized to only tolland with 4-6" 

[UnitedWx]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just took down all the Xmas lights on house and bushes. Some semi buried in snow/ice, but with a few snow events over the next week and cold, didn’t want them to get more buried . If only could get the tree out the house today 

Really? Damn, my tree stays up half of January. Actually if I had my way it would stay up until March 1st

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

An advisory with this map?

They probably feel like they have to account for the drunk idiots tonight... like they'd even notice an advisory

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Was there another very localized Tolland county event during this time (2016-2020)? Maybe im just thinking of the Mar 2019 storm but i thought there was another one that was even more localized to only tolland with 4-6" 

I’ve been in town since Summer of 2000, and that was far and away the most localized event . There’s been a bunch of less impressive ones from like hilltop to 500 feet but nothing like that one 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Really? Damn, my tree stays up half of January. Actually if I had my way it would stay up until March 1st

We cut ours day after Tgiving and by now it’s as brittle as Scooter after another winter rainer. Needles fall off as you walk by.. not to mention fire hazard. My wife likes it up till at least NYD so I lose that one . Probably will be this weekend 

[UnitedWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

We cut ours day after Tgiving and by now it’s as brittle as Scooter after another winter rainer. Needles fall off as you walk by.. not to mention fire hazard. My wife likes it up till at least NYD so I lose that one . Probably will be this weekend 

I always forget about the real tree thing. I've been running vintage artificial trees for years. You should look into one of the early 60s aluminum trees, it makes the living room look like an ice storm has passed through

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve been in town since Summer of 2000, and that was far and away the most localized event . There’s been a bunch of less impressive ones from like hilltop to 500 feet but nothing like that one 

April 2021 was also a E/NE special above 500ft or so. But wasn't localized to just tolland county as a lot of the worcester hills did well and berkshires.

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/apr-15-16-2021

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

April 2021 was also a E/NE special above 500ft or so. But wasn't localized to just tolland county as a lot of the worcester hills did well and berkshires.

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/apr-15-16-2021

At least in that one I came away with something.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

April 2021 was also a E/NE special above 500ft or so. But wasn't localized to just tolland county as a lot of the worcester hills did well and berkshires.

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/apr-15-16-2021

Yeah I recall that one too. I think there were two snowfalls that same week 

[Damage In Tolland]

Here’s why they expanded. We’ll see if it works or not.

expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to include; western zones
of Franklin and Hampshire Counties, Worcester County, Tolland and
Windham Counties, most of Rhode Island, and all of southeast
Massachusetts. Here we feel there is the best potential for 2-4"
with the higher of the totals on the western facing hills, due to
upsloping from the southwest flow.

Forecast Details: Quiet through the rest of the daylight hours, then
a robust 850mb shortwave races through southern New England this
evening through early tomorrow morning. This feature has near normal
moisture to work with, PWATs of 0.3" to 0.4" doesn`t sound overly
too impressive, but is enough to work with. Looking through BUFKIT
forecast soundings, there is good saturation and OMEGA/lift in the
dendritic growth zone (DGZ), with light to moderate snow for several
hours 2am to 6am. HREF supportive of this idea, with probabilities
between 30% and 60% for snowfall rates 1+" an hour during this time
across Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. As
mentioned above, those traveling late tonight or tomorrow morning
will want to plan accordingly as slick travel is expected. There is
a level of uncertainty around how far north the warm air reaches,
for the time being confidence for the northern extent is Nantucket.
It is there the best chance for rain to mix with the snow.
Elsewhere, remains cold enough to stay snow. Additionally, southwest
flow enhances snow potential due to orographic lift/upslope along
western facing hills of northeastern Connecticut, central
Massachusetts... even western hills of Rhode Island benefit from an
upslope component. Finally, the shortwave moves off shore early
Thursday morning, followed with an Arctic front midmorning, with
additional snow showers or possibly snow squalls.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Thankfully you’ve been wrong all winter 

Enjoy your C-1” it’s all ya got 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Here’s why they expanded. We’ll see if it works or not.

expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to include; western zones
of Franklin and Hampshire Counties, Worcester County, Tolland and
Windham Counties, most of Rhode Island, and all of southeast
Massachusetts. Here we feel there is the best potential for 2-4"
with the higher of the totals on the western facing hills, due to
upsloping from the southwest flow.

Forecast Details: Quiet through the rest of the daylight hours, then
a robust 850mb shortwave races through southern New England this
evening through early tomorrow morning. This feature has near normal
moisture to work with, PWATs of 0.3" to 0.4" doesn`t sound overly
too impressive, but is enough to work with. Looking through BUFKIT
forecast soundings, there is good saturation and OMEGA/lift in the
dendritic growth zone (DGZ), with light to moderate snow for several
hours 2am to 6am. HREF supportive of this idea, with probabilities
between 30% and 60% for snowfall rates 1+" an hour during this time
across Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. As
mentioned above, those traveling late tonight or tomorrow morning
will want to plan accordingly as slick travel is expected. There is
a level of uncertainty around how far north the warm air reaches,
for the time being confidence for the northern extent is Nantucket.
It is there the best chance for rain to mix with the snow.
Elsewhere, remains cold enough to stay snow. Additionally, southwest
flow enhances snow potential due to orographic lift/upslope along
western facing hills of northeastern Connecticut, central
Massachusetts... even western hills of Rhode Island benefit from an
upslope component. Finally, the shortwave moves off shore early
Thursday morning, followed with an Arctic front midmorning, with
additional snow showers or possibly snow squalls.

According to them, this thing isn’t as dry as we were thinking it was. Hmm. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

According to them, this thing isn’t as dry as we were thinking it was. Hmm. 

That’s what she said?

[CoastalWx]

Looks like Ginxy area and cape jack. Brett in sucker hole

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Here’s why they expanded. We’ll see if it works or not.

expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to include; western zones
of Franklin and Hampshire Counties, Worcester County, Tolland and
Windham Counties, most of Rhode Island, and all of southeast
Massachusetts. Here we feel there is the best potential for 2-4"
with the higher of the totals on the western facing hills, due to
upsloping from the southwest flow.

Forecast Details: Quiet through the rest of the daylight hours, then
a robust 850mb shortwave races through southern New England this
evening through early tomorrow morning. This feature has near normal
moisture to work with, PWATs of 0.3" to 0.4" doesn`t sound overly
too impressive, but is enough to work with. Looking through BUFKIT
forecast soundings, there is good saturation and OMEGA/lift in the
dendritic growth zone (DGZ), with light to moderate snow for several
hours 2am to 6am. HREF supportive of this idea, with probabilities
between 30% and 60% for snowfall rates 1+" an hour during this time
across Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. As
mentioned above, those traveling late tonight or tomorrow morning
will want to plan accordingly as slick travel is expected. There is
a level of uncertainty around how far north the warm air reaches,
for the time being confidence for the northern extent is Nantucket.
It is there the best chance for rain to mix with the snow.
Elsewhere, remains cold enough to stay snow. Additionally, southwest
flow enhances snow potential due to orographic lift/upslope along
western facing hills of northeastern Connecticut, central
Massachusetts... even western hills of Rhode Island benefit from an
upslope component. Finally, the shortwave moves off shore early
Thursday morning, followed with an Arctic front midmorning, with
additional snow showers or possibly snow squalls.

Here's what they're talking about..the HREF does have ens mean >1" per hour for east CT into RI and SE MA. seems really aggressive to me but if snow growth is good i could see 0.5-1/hr for a time i dunno about much more than that. 

I think Kevins area down to ginx is good for 1-2" total and probably NW CT hills with upsloping and possible squall line after that. 

Still think C-2 is the best call r/n for CT especially considering hit or miss squalls after midnight. Areas in E CT prob closer to 2 and i could def see far SW CT struggling to get more than flurries to a coating. 

I didn't break out BUFKIT for this one but i agree with them the snow growth looks good in the DGZ for CT. 

18Z Nams are pretty wet with .1-.25QPF for most of CT

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like Ginxy area and cape jack. Brett in sucker hole

That’s fine. The accumulation of road salt will be enough. Also wouldn’t be the first time we’ve been a relative min recently 

[ORH_wxman]

It’s a very deep SGZ so that helps even in light snow. Still think 3-4” is a heavy lift but if you have very good snow growth, then you can fluff your way to 3” on like 0.13” of liquid. I just hate using ratios to try and get there…because I’ve seen good soundings before but if the lift ends up too weak or not organized, you don’t realize the potential. 

[WxWatcher007]

Hi res pulls the rug up here. Can’t get meaningful precip into the area. We’ll see if that’s real. 

Very light snow falling. 18.6/14

[KTBFFH1905]

Same here. I love the ambiance of it. I keep a small fake one up in my little basement bunker room. 

[SJonesWX]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

WWGW

what, you couldn’t find a .gif with humping wolves?