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Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026


BooneWX
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18 hours ago, GaWx said:

Exciting day for space enthusiasts tomorrow!

Live updates: Will Artemis II launch tomorrow? Florida's weather outlook and mission status updates

LIVE UPDATES
Last Update May 1, 2026 at 10:44 PM EDT
NASA is targeting an April 1 launch for the historic Artemis II mission, with meteorologists currently tracking a favorable 80% "Go" weather forecast at Florida's Kennedy Space Center. Follow our live coverage for real-time radar analysis, countdown milestones, and the latest mission status as four astronauts prepare for humanity's first crewed journey to the Moon in over 50 years.

https://www.foxweather.com/live-news/live-updates-will-artemis-ii-launch-tomorrow-florida-s-weather-outlook-and-mission-status-updates#google_vignette

That was impressive 

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13 hours ago, UnionCountyNCWX said:

Looks like El Nino gonna go boom too. Gonna be a hot summer it looks like... Might have to import water instead of oil... lol?

Yes, chances for Super El Nino are increasing.  The last one was 15/16.  If this holds, it could be a hot and dry summer in the south.  Very concerning...

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30 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Yes, chances for Super El Nino are increasing.  The last one was 15/16.  If this holds, it could be a hot and dry summer in the south.  Very concerning...

Aren’t El Niños typically wetter on the east coast? With a total of 0.01” for April and no chance of rain till mid month at earliest, it could be dire straights around here unless we get a good soaking second half of month, not good

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6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Aren’t El Niños typically wetter on the east coast? With a total of 0.01” for April and no chance of rain till mid month at earliest, it could be dire straights around here unless we get a good soaking second half of month, not good

Wetter in the winter. Drier in the summer.

". For much of the southeastern United States during the summer of an El Niño event, the climate is usually warmer and drier. "

https://climate.ncsu.edu/learn/the-el-nino-southern-oscillation/

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1 hour ago, ncjoaquin said:

Me too! I had to look it up. I had no idea.

If we can make it through the summer, it should turn noticeably wetter late fall.  
 

As far as winter.  Who knows?  82/83 was not particularly cold by 80s standards but we did have 3 winter storms capped off by the record March snowfall.  
 

97/98 was warm with virtually no winter weather but lots of severe. 15/16 we did have the one good snow in January.  Oddly, I don’t remember much else about that winter.  

Edit:  Forgot about 22/23.  I remember the really cold Christmas when we got down to 5 degrees IMBY but no other winter weather that winter.

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I am a bit confused here.  If you read the whole paragraph in the link, it appears to contradict itself.  Can somebody clue me in?  Is this a roundabout way to say cooler fall and winters after a dry, hot summer?

A warm-phase ENSO event, or El Niño, strengthens the subtropical jet stream and typically keeps it just to our south, which means a moisture-rich storm track through the Gulf of Mexico and off our coast.  South-central Texas and the southeast US will be mostly cool and wet because the cold, moist air from the Pacific Ocean entering the southern states enhances clouds and rainfall and cools temperatures due to lack of direct sunlight. In turn, much of the northern United States and Canada will be warm during an El Niño event because the polar jet stream swings farther east over the northeastern United States. For much of the southeastern United States during the summer of an El Niño event, the climate is usually warmer and drier. 

(emphasis mine)

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1 hour ago, jpbart said:

I am a bit confused here.  If you read the whole paragraph in the link, it appears to contradict itself.  Can somebody clue me in?  Is this a roundabout way to say cooler fall and winters after a dry, hot summer?

A warm-phase ENSO event, or El Niño, strengthens the subtropical jet stream and typically keeps it just to our south, which means a moisture-rich storm track through the Gulf of Mexico and off our coast.  South-central Texas and the southeast US will be mostly cool and wet because the cold, moist air from the Pacific Ocean entering the southern states enhances clouds and rainfall and cools temperatures due to lack of direct sunlight. In turn, much of the northern United States and Canada will be warm during an El Niño event because the polar jet stream swings farther east over the northeastern United States. For much of the southeastern United States during the summer of an El Niño event, the climate is usually warmer and drier. 

(emphasis mine)

Probably somewhere in-between, although there's not a lot of analogs for a strong summer El Nino

eb894f2f-0b9a-4e08-bc38-3eb002b5e067_1140x641 (1).jpg

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1 hour ago, Upstate Tiger said:

If we can make it through the summer, it should turn noticeably wetter late fall.  
 

As far as winter.  Who knows?  82/83 was not particularly cold by 80s standards but we did have 3 winter storms capped off by the record March snowfall.  
 

97/98 was warm with virtually no winter weather but lots of severe. 15/16 we did have the one good snow in January.  Oddly, I don’t remember much else about that winter.  

Edit:  Forgot about 22/23.  I remember the really cold Christmas when we got down to 5 degrees IMBY but no other winter weather that winter.

January '98 had a 16 inch snowstorm at my house. It was warm before and after though.

https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/event/?e=196

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45 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Super Nino is not ideal for snow lovers but if you can get just enough cold to go with the hyperactive STJ you can get massive snows like Jan 22, 2016. 

Also, there was 2/9-10/1973 and 3/24/1983 in large parts of the SE.

 Regardless of snow or not, the relatively predictable thing about strong El Niños is their tendency to be wet Nov-Mar in most of the SE.

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3 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Super Nino is not ideal for snow lovers but if you can get just enough cold to go with the hyperactive STJ you can get massive snows like Jan 22, 2016. 

In Wake County you need a miracle no matter the setup.

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3 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Super Nino is not ideal for snow lovers but if you can get just enough cold to go with the hyperactive STJ you can get massive snows like Jan 22, 2016. 

It also is peaking earlier than normal, so may be coming down towards moderate by Winter. Hard to say

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