Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, GaWx said:

Beware the Ides of March!

With the extreme cold remaining in Canada and extreme warmth invading most of the US, it seems like we have a chance of a significant severe weather season simply due to the mixing of extremes. EURO and GFS already showing a potent system in about a week 

[GaWx]

34 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

With the extreme cold remaining in Canada and extreme warmth invading most of the US, it seems like we have a chance of a significant severe weather season simply due to the mixing of extremes. EURO and GFS already showing a potent system in about a week 

Yes, indeed. This severe threat will then likely be followed by a potent cold shot as we approach the Ides, which would more than likely be the last hard freeze threat for much of the SE (especially S of NC). So, a highly volatile period to say the least is in the cards per model consensus! Not boring for sure.

 The WPO is currently being forecasted to dip to its lowest in March since 2017! That lead to Carolina snow (flurries even to ATL) and hard freezes down to N FL!

WPO forecasted plunge next week:

[NorthHillsWx]

29 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Yes, indeed. This severe threat will then likely be followed by a potent cold shot as we approach the Ides, which would more than likely be the last hard freeze threat for much of the SE (especially S of NC). So, a highly volatile period to say the least is in the cards per model consensus! Not boring for sure.

 The WPO is currently being forecasted to dip to its lowest in March since 2017! That lead to Carolina snow (flurries even to ATL) and hard freezes down to N FL!

Yep- I see nothing boring about the upcoming pattern with a classic battleground developing between the extremes and an active storm track. Looks like a lot of potential for powerhouse spring systems in mid March 

[yotaman]

Thunderstorms in our forecast for Sunday. First time this year.

[StantonParkHoya]

It’s so tiresome when it gets cold in late March. Literally accomplishes nothing.


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[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

It’s so tiresome when it gets cold in late March. Literally accomplishes nothing.


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 Sorry but it’s also tiresome to read negative comments like this. First of all, we’re just entering a long torch. Secondly, it’s normal/common to have NN or BN in parts of March obviously. There’s not even an indication of overly or longlasting cold as of now but rather just maybe 1-2 normal for mid March chilly airmasses resulting in a few BN days, which I’m looking forward to. The Euro Weeklies then warm it right back.
 

 Will it “accomplish” anything? Yes, of course, as it will give the SE a break from the current torch. I can’t wait.

 Also, consider this. Of the last 6 Marches, 4 have been AN, 2 NN, and 0 BN. And the current March looks to end up AN or at the coldest NN thanks to the current long torch.

[StantonParkHoya]

 Sorry but it’s also tiresome to read negative comments like this. First of all, we’re just entering a long torch. Secondly, it’s normal/common to have NN or BN in parts of March obviously. There’s not even an indication of overly or longlasting cold as of now but rather just maybe 1-2 normal for mid March chilly airmasses resulting in a few BN days, which I’m looking forward to. The Euro Weeklies then warm it right back.
 
 Will it “accomplish” anything? Yes, of course, as it will give the SE a break from the current torch. I can’t wait.
 Also, consider this. Of the last 6 Marches, 4 have been AN, 2 NN, and 0 BN. And the current March looks to end up AN or at the coldest NN thanks to the current long torch.

Idk, this 78 and sunny is pretty nice…


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[NorthHillsWx]

Long as it stays active I don’t care if it’s warm or chilly in March. I can’t stand boring weather in March bc it’s typically such a volatile month. And we still need rain 

[BooneWX]

My only beef with March and April variability is that my sinuses can’t take the delayed, slow drag through pollen season. If it were warm this next week and into the extended range, we’d rip the bandaid off. 

[yotaman]

3 hours ago, BooneWX said:

My only beef with March and April variability is that my sinuses can’t take the delayed, slow drag through pollen season. If it were warm this next week and into the extended range, we’d rip the bandaid off. 

As long as we get regular rains, the pollen is controlled. Dry spell at the wrong time and it's miserable.

[olafminesaw]

Gotta lure out the bugs and then freeze them solid 

[StantonParkHoya]

Gotta lure out the bugs and then freeze them solid 

Latest GFS runs never get close to freezing at RDU through the whole run


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[Jmoon]

48 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Latest GFS runs never get close to freezing at RDU through the whole run


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Don't you get enough heat and humidity the other 8 months of the year. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Possible many areas don’t get below freezing in March this year which is insane 

[GaWx]

10 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Possible many areas don’t get below freezing in March this year which is insane 

There has been only one March in which GSO didn’t get down to 32 the entire month: 1945. But their coldest in April of 1945 was a much colder 25!

 RDU’s warmest coldest in Mar was above 32 three times: 1919, 1945, and 2024. Of those Aprils of 1919 and 1945 had a coldest of 32 or lower. But April of 2024 didn’t get down to 32. That means that the earliest last freeze was in 2024, which was Feb 21st! Can you believe it?!? That record is safe this time.

[NorthHillsWx]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

There has been only one March in which GSO didn’t get down to 32 the entire month: 1945. But their coldest in April of 1946 was a much colder 25!

 RDU’s warmest coldest in Mar was above 32 three times: 1919, 1945, and 2024. Of those Aprils of 1919 and 1945 had a coldest of 32 or lower. But April of 2024 didn’t get down to 32. That means that the earliest last freeze was in 2024, which was Feb 21st! Can you believe it?!? That record is safe this time.

We got below freezing on the 24th but that was the last time this year so we aren’t going to be far from that record assuming it didn’t get below freezing again which seems highly unlikely but at this point possible.