Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[yotaman]

1 hour ago, suzook said:

Ehhh, below normal in mid to late March is not that bad. For my area I'd be shocked if we get below 30 again until end of the year.

I know that we have had hard freezes in March, usually early to mid, before so I don't count out the 20s until the end of the month. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, yotaman said:

I know that we have had hard freezes in March, usually early to mid, before so I don't count out the 20s until the end of the month. 

Thanks. Even way down here, record lows til the midpoint of March are in hard freeze territory including a 26 on March 16th in 2017! There were even a couple of hard freezes in late March though they were way back in the 1950s.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Thanks. Even way down here, record lows til the midpoint of March are in hard freeze territory including a 26 on March 16th in 2027! There were even a couple of hard freezes in late March though they were way back in the 1950s.

We frequently get freezes into mid April in central NC. A few years ago during the first week of turkey season (second week of April) I woke up to 24 degrees in Louisburg NC, was absolutely not dressed for that. Long range looks extremely warm for first half of March, but I am confident there will be more sub freezing mornings before April 

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

We frequently get freezes into mid April in central NC. A few years ago during the first week of turkey season (second week of April) I woke up to 24 degrees in Louisburg NC, was absolutely not dressed for that. Long range looks extremely warm for first half of March, but I am confident there will be more sub freezing mornings before April 

 Wow! In terms of light freezes, KSAV has had them as late as April 16th! But that 32 was way back during a colder era, 1962. However, we’ve much more recently in early April had 2 light freezes in 2007 and even a 32 on April 3rd just 5 years ago!

[yotaman]

I had to go back to 2021 to find an April freeze. Most of NC had a hard freeze back early April of 2021.

[yotaman]

47 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Wow! In terms of light freezes, KSAV has had them as late as April 16th! But that 32 was way back during a colder era, 1962. However, we’ve much more recently in early April had 2 light freezes in 2007 and even a 32 on April 3rd just 5 years ago!

We hit 30 that morning. Much of NC away from the coastal areas were in the 20's on that morning.

[wncsnow]

I have seen frost in June even in the foothills. Freeze in early May tend to occur every 10-15 years

[NorthHillsWx]

40 minutes ago, yotaman said:

I had to go back to 2021 to find an April freeze. Most of NC had a hard freeze back early April of 2021.

 

39 minutes ago, yotaman said:

We hit 30 that morning. Much of NC away from the coastal areas were in the 20's on that morning.

RDU got down to 30 on April 23 of 2021 which was obviously well past the normal last freeze date. That morning was in the 20’s in many rural areas too

[NorthHillsWx]

RDU got down to 36 on May 10 2020 which likely resulted in frost 

[BooneWX]

It’s joked but actually pretty accurate in western NC that the opening day for trout is usually miserably cold. In fact, anecdotally, I can’t think of one time where I’ve been warm on that day. 

[suzook]

3 hours ago, yotaman said:

I know that we have had hard freezes in March, usually early to mid, before so I don't count out the 20s until the end of the month. 

Not saying it couldn't happen. More of a probably won't. Now higher elevations and more north of me, sure 20's are probable.

[Upstate Tiger]

Weekend looking great!

It's a good thing too, as Monday looks miserable...

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

6 hours ago, suzook said:

Ehhh, below normal in mid to late March is not that bad. For my area I'd be shocked if we get below 30 again until end of the year.

Where are you located? .... Florida?

[Tullioz]

Nine out of the last ten years Eden has seen the temperature drop below 30° in April. 

28.4° April 9, 2025
28.4° April 7, 2024
29.7° April 11, 2023
28.6° April 20, 2022
29.4° April 23, 2021
28.8° April 12, 2020
29.1° April 3, 2019
28.6° April 9, 2018
26.6° March 10, 2017
26.3° April 11, 2016

The latest date the temperature fell below freezing during this ten year period was May 11, 2020 when it dropped to 30.3°. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

April 1983 takes the cake when it comes to hard freezes:

It snowed in places like Philly and NYC during the 19th and 20th.

[NorthHillsWx]

I don’t mind late season freezes especially to knock the bugs back but whatever we get this year is going to be damaging considering the next two weeks of +15-25 temps 

[Coach McGuirk]

GFS Model – Total Snowfall (10:1 SLR) for Southeast U.S. | Tropical Tidbits

[GaWx]

The current drought throughout the SE US is serious business! In my area, for example, the last 6 months’ 9.38” were in the aggregate at KSAV the driest Sept-Feb since way back in 1931-2 (though 1931-2 was much drier) and were <50% of the 1991-2020 avg of 19.74”!

Driest Sept-Feb KSAV on record:

6.52” 1931-2 
6.64” 1917-8 
7.78” 1901-2
9.04” 1906-7
9.06” 1889-90
9.38” 2025-6
9.44” 2001-2
9.55” 1940-1

19.74” 30 yr avg

[Daniel Boone]

37 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The current drought throughout the SE US is serious business! In my area, for example, the last 6 months’ 9.38” were in the aggregate at KSAV the driest Sept-Feb since way back in 1931-2 (though 1931-2 was much drier) and were <50% of the 1991-2020 avg of 19.74”!

Driest Sept-Feb KSAV on record:

6.52” 1931-2 
6.64” 1917-8 
7.78” 1901-2
9.04” 1906-7
9.06” 1889-90
9.38” 2025-6
9.44” 2001-2
9.55” 1940-1

19.74” 30 yr avg

Yeah. Larry, I had been concerned we could be headed into another "dust bowl" situation as the Southern Plains has been very dry as well. That 31-32 sticks out. Could you run some numbers in the current Plains situation ? Then what we can find on the Global Indices leading up to the Dust Bowl. Hopefully the incoming Nino will derail any such evolution this time.

[GaWx]

40 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah. Larry, I had been concerned we could be headed into another "dust bowl" situation as the Southern Plains has been very dry as well. That 31-32 sticks out. Could you run some numbers in the current Plains situation ? Then what we can find on the Global Indices leading up to the Dust Bowl. Hopefully the incoming Nino will derail any such evolution this time.

Hey DB,

To be efficient, I’ll look at one city, Tulsa, as a good rep of the S Plains. They actually had a NN precip fall. But winter has been dry with only 1.62” vs 5.65” 30 year normal. This was the driest winter there since 2005-6’s 1.59” and second driest on record! Records go back to 1893-4.

 1931-2 winter there was wet with 7.7”. Also, Nov of 1931 is the 2nd wettest Nov on record. So, winter of 31-2 didn’t at all foretell the upcoming dust bowl. Then again, 1932 overall ended up dry overall with a very dry Feb-May and Aug-Sep. Also, 1934 and 36 were dry while 1939 was the 6th driest on record.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=tsa

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Hey DB,

To be efficient, I’ll look at one city, Tulsa, as a good rep of the S Plains. They actually had a NN precip fall. But winter has been dry with only 1.62” vs 5.65” 30 year normal. This was the driest winter there since 2005-6’s 1.59” and second driest on record! Records go back to 1893-4.

 1931-2 winter there was wet with 7.7”. Also, Nov of 1931 is the 2nd wettest Nov on record. So, winter of 31-2 didn’t at all foretell the upcoming dust bowl. Then again, 1932 overall ended up dry overall with a very dry Feb-May and Aug-Sep. Also, 1934 and 36 were dry while 1939 was the 6th driest on record.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=tsa

Thanks man ! Good to know.