Coach McGuirk Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago My guess this is an eastern Mid-Atlantic Snowstorm. Might be a little too warm for snow at the start. That's why I'm thinking maybe an inch here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORFDawg2013 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 6 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: My guess this is an eastern Mid-Atlantic Snowstorm. Might be a little too warm for snow at the start. That's why I'm thinking maybe an inch here. You're definitely sitting better than us on the Southside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Almost the entire southeast is now in severe drought with extreme drought quickly expanding. Last weekends rain did very little and this week drying up has turned away yet another opportunity to dent the drought. We could really use a gfs-like scenario for drought relief with Sundays system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago The GFS is either gonna score a huge win on this or its gonna be an embarrassment... unreal how much snow its putting out now. I can't imagine being a met around those parts making a forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 35 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Almost the entire southeast is now in severe drought with extreme drought quickly expanding. Last weekends rain did very little and this week drying up has turned away yet another opportunity to dent the drought. We could really use a gfs-like scenario for drought relief with Sundays system It has been a La-Nina winter. Hopefully we get more rain during the growing season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 43 minutes ago, ORFDawg2013 said: You're definitely sitting better than us on the Southside Not by much. I can see this storm going up the east coast and leaving us with nothing. It's too warm to start. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 53 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Almost the entire southeast is now in severe drought with extreme drought quickly expanding. Last weekends rain did very little and this week drying up has turned away yet another opportunity to dent the drought. We could really use a gfs-like scenario for drought relief with Sundays system I wonder if the GFS is once again way overdoing the qpf like it did for the 1/25 storm. Some runs had 3”+ of qpf at ATL just a few days in advance but they ended up with only 0.85”. If so, it would likely gradually reduce it from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago Euro is interesting to say the least for SEVA. I still don't see much happening, too warm to start and hoping the coastal low bombs out. 1-3 is my forecast for the Hampton Roads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 6z NAM just dumped 30"+ on SE VA. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 6z NAM just dumped 30"+ on SE VA. Lol Love me fantasy NAM storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 6z GFS is way north, like I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Hey all, you’re nc event few weeks back. Did the euro end up caving to other models inside 2 days or something? I feel like the gfs did well with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 10 minutes ago, Heisy said: Hey all, you’re nc event few weeks back. Did the euro end up caving to other models inside 2 days or something? I feel like the gfs did well with it. I feel like the GFS slowed backed the moisture up to the West as we got closer to the event, Euro did the best at showing the dry slot over Raleigh first and the heavier snow that fell through the upstate it picked up on that first. The Nam was all over the place and the GFS AI and Euro AI did the best at identifying the heaviest totals near CLT-Salisbury area. With in 18hrs the RAP and HRRR pretty much held course with the future radar, but a blend of GEFS and EPS is the way to go in my opinion and cut everything back a little bit with daytime snow in late Feb. It will be interesting to see how it plays out! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 24 minutes ago, Heisy said: Hey all, you’re nc event few weeks back. Did the euro end up caving to other models inside 2 days or something? I feel like the gfs did well with it. With the last storm the GFS and CMC did the best for our area. The Euro was always a bit dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 46 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: With the last storm the GFS and CMC did the best for our area. The Euro was always a bit dry. I kept track of QPF out put from all models for several days before the storm for MBY HKY. 2-3 days out GFS output ranged in the .65"-.8" range and GEFS was consistently around the .5"-.55" range. The Euro was consistently around the .35-.45" range and the EPS was around .45" -.5" range. We wound up receiving about .52-.54" of precip. Both AI models nailed the .7-.8" totals near and around CLT to Salisbury. I think general rule of thumb you stick with ensembles and blend those together and you will get a pretty accurate look at what's going to happen starting in the next 12 to 24 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 14 minutes ago, WXNewton said: I kept track of QPF out put from all models for several days before the storm for MBY HKY. 2-3 days out GFS output ranged in the .65"-.8" range and GEFS was consistently around the .5"-.55" range. The Euro was consistently around the .35-.45" range and the EPS was around .45" -.5" range. We wound up receiving about .52-.54" of precip. Both AI models nailed the .7-.8" totals near and around CLT to Salisbury. I think general rule of thumb you stick with ensembles and blend those together and you will get a pretty accurate look at what's going to happen starting in the next 12 to 24 hours. GFS seems to have a bit of a too heavy QPF bias in general. Not for all cases by any means but averaged out, which would fit the definition of a bias. Any other opinions on this? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago If we are tracking this especially for the flow snow in the mountains you have the NAM, Canadian, and the GFS looking good while the Euro is basically showing nothing... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Met1985 said: If we are tracking this especially for the flow snow in the mountains you have the NAM, Canadian, and the GFS looking good while the Euro is basically showing nothing... Yeah I don’t understand why the Euro has consistently been too dry with most systems this winter even when it’s surface is similar to other wetter models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, WinstonSalemArlington said: Looks like a wallops island launch viewing map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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