Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[SECane]

After how much Snow I got from this storm, and having to deal with the Ice storm exactly one week ago from today. I think I’m good on winter storms for the rest of the year.
 

They’re only fun for me if you have deal with a good one once per year.

[Tullioz]

I've measured 8.6" just west of Eden. Snow has tapered off to just a few light flurries, so this will likely be the final storm total.  16.0°/14.1°

[eyewall]

We ended up with about 3-4 here just east of downtown Raleigh. This was the FIFA snow prize for sure with this one but none the less it is better than a zero out by far. This storm was our shot at a 6+ event so we will not see that this year but so it goes. I do not think it is possible to get 2 big snow events in a season in this region so my guess is from here on out we will be tracking minor and/or mixed p events. Congrats to those that did get the big totals.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

On 1/25/2026 at 6:46 PM, BornAgain13 said:

18z Euro and still snowing

Euro was underdone overall but had the correct general idea six days out 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[CentralNC]

2 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Euro was underdone overall but had the correct general idea six days out 

Euro always latches onto the big ones 

[BooneWX]

Ya know who locked in early and didn’t waiver? Weathernext 2. Even called the subsidence early on. 

[wncsnow]

12 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Ya know who locked in early and didn’t waiver? Weathernext 2. Even called the subsidence early on. 

It was definitely the most consistent from almost a week out and nailed the general footprint.

[BooneWX]

It’s the new king 

[Met1985]

Euro did the best locally here.  Was pretty consistent from about a week out. 

[cbmclean]

Traditionally I have focused more on teleconnections for cold; and I am pretty ignorant about storm dynamics.  I know that Miller A/B are ideal models and most noreasters are hybrids.  Is it correct to say that the recent storm was pretty firmly in the Miller B category: a LP coming from the midwest transferring to a coastal low?

I understand the general idea of the dry slot coming from the gap between the winding down of the primary and the winding up of the secondary.  Is a dry slot an absolute in these types of storms?  Are there conditions which lead to smaller or larger dry slots?  What factors determine the location of the slot?  If the coastal low had formed closer to the coast would the dry slot have been more towards the west, or would it have merged with the precip from the primary low leading to a smaller dry slot (or no dry slot)?

I appreciate anyone who feels like taking time to share some knowledge.

[Snowncanes]

6 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Traditionally I have focused more on teleconnections for cold; and I am pretty ignorant about storm dynamics.  I know that Miller A/B are ideal models and most noreasters are hybrids.  Is it correct to say that the recent storm was pretty firmly in the Miller B category: a LP coming from the midwest transferring to a coastal low?

I understand the general idea of the dry slot coming from the gap between the winding down of the primary and the winding up of the secondary.  Is a dry slot an absolute in these types of storms?  Are there conditions which lead to smaller or larger dry slots?  What factors determine the location of the slot?  If the coastal low had formed closer to the coast would the dry slot have been more towards the west, or would it have merged with the precip from the primary low leading to a smaller dry slot (or no dry slot)?

I appreciate anyone who feels like taking time to share some knowledge.

This was more of a miller A. A miller B has a surface low in the Appalachian region that transfers usually around the Virginia coastline. You had the ULL that gave most of western NC a good snow, and you then had the coastal that hit eastern NC. Storms/rain/snow are created with lift, and when you have two areas of strong lift, the area in between has the air particles sinking. This is called subsidence. This is what the “dry slot” was. It wasn’t actually dry air really, it was more of a lack of lift and thus not creating the precip needed. If the coastal had formed closer to the coast and the ULL had tilted negatively sooner and interacted more with the surface low, the precip shield from the coastal and ULL would have merged better and filled in (like it did later in the evening). Unfortunately these two did not interact as much as needed for central NC and the transfer of energy basically skipped over central NC and did not provide any lift, or vertical velocity. Feel free to ask if you have any questions or if I didn’t explain it well enough.

[Upstate Tiger]

current US snowfall coverage.  
 

[cbmclean]

2 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

current US snowfall coverage.  
 

Man I feel bad for the plains westward; total dud winter for them.

[cbmclean]

26 minutes ago, Snowncanes said:

This was more of a miller A. A miller B has a surface low in the Appalachian region that transfers usually around the Virginia coastline. You had the ULL that gave most of western NC a good snow, and you then had the coastal that hit eastern NC. Storms/rain/snow are created with lift, and when you have two areas of strong lift, the area in between has the air particles sinking. This is called subsidence. This is what the “dry slot” was. It wasn’t actually dry air really, it was more of a lack of lift and thus not creating the precip needed. If the coastal had formed closer to the coast and the ULL had tilted negatively sooner and interacted more with the surface low, the precip shield from the coastal and ULL would have merged better and filled in (like it did later in the evening). Unfortunately these two did not interact as much as needed for central NC and the transfer of energy basically skipped over central NC and did not provide any lift, or vertical velocity. Feel free to ask if you have any questions or if I didn’t explain it well enough.

Thanks for the info!  I was assuming that the ULL was acting like the primary low of a Miller B and that the low of the coast was the secondary.  I guess that is not the case?  Were the ULL and coastal low just coincidental to each other?

[sinterpol]

I've been lurking for years (had an older account that I couldn't remember my password) and rarely post, but I would like to say: I temporarily moved in with my folks last week, because my father's fight with brain cancer is nearing it's end. 20 year Special Forces medic and range instructor, loving husband, amazing father and best friend to me, who has fought this whole time like a mf. All of you folks have kept me distracted from the down times here and have been a huge help, wether you know it or not. Cashing in on a little snow this weekend while making Pops laugh and spending quality time has been EVERYTHING. I'll remember this week for the rest of my life. Thank you.

[Snowncanes]

54 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Thanks for the info!  I was assuming that the ULL was acting like the primary low of a Miller B and that the low of the coast was the secondary.  I guess that is not the case?  Were the ULL and coastal low just coincidental to each other?

These are the 500mb and surface maps for the past two days. You can see a surface low on the map in conjunction with the shortwave (the slight bump in isobars) Ive circled in green on Friday. This frontal boundary is how our coastal storm developed. The shortwave rode up and around the 500mb low as it cut off and dove south from the upper Midwest. When these features combine and are vertically stacked the 500mb low can feed the surface low its energy and transfers down to the surface low. That was our expansion of precip back over eastern NC last night. If the 500mb low had been a little quicker to tilt, it would have made that shortwave (our surface low) ride a little closer to the coast instead of going more out to sea. This would have made the ULL and surface low interact more and “phase” earlier to create the same storm it created out in the Atlantic 100 miles closer to shore, thus bringing the whole precip shield that much west. 

 

edit: added a roughly drawn phone made example of the upper low negatively tilting. The orange line is what the upper level flow would have been like if it was negatively tilted and the red line is what it was. Much more progressive instead of amplified like the last storm was. 

 

[wake4est]

HAHAHAHAHAHA JOKE'S ON THE REST OF NC. WAKE COUNTY IS FINALLY IN THE JACKPOT ZONE FOR THURSDAY'S MONSTER STORM!!!!! START THE THREAD!!!!!

[olafminesaw]

9 minutes ago, wake4est said:

HAHAHAHAHAHA JOKE'S ON THE REST OF NC. WAKE COUNTY IS FINALLY IN THE JACKPOT ZONE FOR THURSDAY'S MONSTER STORM!!!!! START THE THREAD!!!!!

Me after getting the deformation band but checking every model run hoping for a little wet snow

[wncsnow]

3 hours ago, sinterpol said:

I've been lurking for years (had an older account that I couldn't remember my password) and rarely post, but I would like to say: I temporarily moved in with my folks last week, because my father's fight with brain cancer is nearing it's end. 20 year Special Forces medic and range instructor, loving husband, amazing father and best friend to me, who has fought this whole time like a mf. All of you folks have kept me distracted from the down times here and have been a huge help, wether you know it or not. Cashing in on a little snow this weekend while making Pops laugh and spending quality time has been EVERYTHING. I'll remember this week for the rest of my life. Thank you.

Thank you for spending time with us. Tell your dad we thank him for his service! 

[ADB83]

HAHAHAHAHAHA JOKE'S ON THE REST OF NC. WAKE COUNTY IS FINALLY IN THE JACKPOT ZONE FOR THURSDAY'S MONSTER STORM!!!!! START THE THREAD!!!!!

Don’t want to be in the bull’s-eye this far from that monster storm. It’ll be in the foothills by Tuesday night. What might’ve been


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[eyewall]

I doubt most Wake people will be on for some time knowing there is no shot at any kind of big make up storm this year as there is no way another one that big would happen in the same winter. I am guessing the next shot will be sometime in the 2030's. I am particularly thinking of the Fuquay-Varina folks. I considered a long term break myself but the 4 inches has me on the fence with that. 

[UnionCountyNCWX]

17 hours ago, SECane said:

After how much Snow I got from this storm, and having to deal with the Ice storm exactly one week ago from today. I think I’m good on winter storms for the rest of the year.
 

They’re only fun for me if you have deal with a good one once per year.

I wouldn't mind another one in February, but i really could use a couple of days of shorts weather to thaw out. 

[NorthHillsWx]

54 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I doubt most Wake people will be on for some time knowing there is no shot at any kind of big make up storm this year as there is no way another one that big would happen in the same winter. I am guessing the next shot will be sometime in the 2030's. I am particularly thinking of the Fuquay-Varina folks. I considered a long term break myself but the 4 inches has me on the fence with that. 

I’m glad you got four, that was pretty good for the Raleigh area. We had 2.6” and I’m very confident with that measurement as it was on the snowboard in a spot without wind. I guess being a little further east put you in the band an hour longer than we were to get more than an inch more. Think the SW side of town was real screw zone, saw a bunch of reports under 2” there 

Im holding out hope. I’ve had 3 measurable snowfalls and my backyard has been covered for a week plus just got snow on snow. This winter feels like a more classic one we remember from back in the day 

[WiseWeather]

Don’t want to be in the bull’s-eye this far from that monster storm. It’ll be in the foothills by Tuesday night. What might’ve been


.

As a foothills guy…. You can have that one… i need a weekend of some 50s so i can get my Govee lights up.


.

[Snowncanes]

12 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’m glad you got four, that was pretty good for the Raleigh area. We had 2.6” and I’m very confident with that measurement as it was on the snowboard in a spot without wind. I guess being a little further east put you in the band an hour longer than we were to get more than an inch more. Think the SW side of town was real screw zone, saw a bunch of reports under 2” there 

Im holding out hope. I’ve had 3 measurable snowfalls and my backyard has been covered for a week plus just got snow on snow. This winter feels like a more classic one we remember from back in the day 

Yup, can confirm, had 1.75” close to downtown Cary. Had both the band from the west and the band from the east stop on our doorstep lol. But I’m hopeful for just one more something. Maybe I just need to move to Vermont 

[NorthHillsWx]

5 minutes ago, Snowncanes said:

Yup, can confirm, had 1.75” close to downtown Cary. Had both the band from the west and the band from the east stop on our doorstep lol. But I’m hopeful for just one more something. Maybe I just need to move to Vermont 

We got under the band from the east and it was good stuff, just wished it had last longer