Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[SECane]

After how much Snow I got from this storm, and having to deal with the Ice storm exactly one week ago from today. I think I’m good on winter storms for the rest of the year.
 

They’re only fun for me if you have deal with a good one once per year.

[Tullioz]

I've measured 8.6" just west of Eden. Snow has tapered off to just a few light flurries, so this will likely be the final storm total.  16.0°/14.1°

[eyewall]

We ended up with about 3-4 here just east of downtown Raleigh. This was the FIFA snow prize for sure with this one but none the less it is better than a zero out by far. This storm was our shot at a 6+ event so we will not see that this year but so it goes. I do not think it is possible to get 2 big snow events in a season in this region so my guess is from here on out we will be tracking minor and/or mixed p events. Congrats to those that did get the big totals.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

On 1/25/2026 at 6:46 PM, BornAgain13 said:

18z Euro and still snowing

Euro was underdone overall but had the correct general idea six days out 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[CentralNC]

2 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Euro was underdone overall but had the correct general idea six days out 

Euro always latches onto the big ones 

[BooneWX]

Ya know who locked in early and didn’t waiver? Weathernext 2. Even called the subsidence early on. 

[wncsnow]

12 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Ya know who locked in early and didn’t waiver? Weathernext 2. Even called the subsidence early on. 

It was definitely the most consistent from almost a week out and nailed the general footprint.

[BooneWX]

It’s the new king 

[Met1985]

Euro did the best locally here.  Was pretty consistent from about a week out. 

[cbmclean]

Traditionally I have focused more on teleconnections for cold; and I am pretty ignorant about storm dynamics.  I know that Miller A/B are ideal models and most noreasters are hybrids.  Is it correct to say that the recent storm was pretty firmly in the Miller B category: a LP coming from the midwest transferring to a coastal low?

I understand the general idea of the dry slot coming from the gap between the winding down of the primary and the winding up of the secondary.  Is a dry slot an absolute in these types of storms?  Are there conditions which lead to smaller or larger dry slots?  What factors determine the location of the slot?  If the coastal low had formed closer to the coast would the dry slot have been more towards the west, or would it have merged with the precip from the primary low leading to a smaller dry slot (or no dry slot)?

I appreciate anyone who feels like taking time to share some knowledge.

[Snowncanes]

6 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Traditionally I have focused more on teleconnections for cold; and I am pretty ignorant about storm dynamics.  I know that Miller A/B are ideal models and most noreasters are hybrids.  Is it correct to say that the recent storm was pretty firmly in the Miller B category: a LP coming from the midwest transferring to a coastal low?

I understand the general idea of the dry slot coming from the gap between the winding down of the primary and the winding up of the secondary.  Is a dry slot an absolute in these types of storms?  Are there conditions which lead to smaller or larger dry slots?  What factors determine the location of the slot?  If the coastal low had formed closer to the coast would the dry slot have been more towards the west, or would it have merged with the precip from the primary low leading to a smaller dry slot (or no dry slot)?

I appreciate anyone who feels like taking time to share some knowledge.

This was more of a miller A. A miller B has a surface low in the Appalachian region that transfers usually around the Virginia coastline. You had the ULL that gave most of western NC a good snow, and you then had the coastal that hit eastern NC. Storms/rain/snow are created with lift, and when you have two areas of strong lift, the area in between has the air particles sinking. This is called subsidence. This is what the “dry slot” was. It wasn’t actually dry air really, it was more of a lack of lift and thus not creating the precip needed. If the coastal had formed closer to the coast and the ULL had tilted negatively sooner and interacted more with the surface low, the precip shield from the coastal and ULL would have merged better and filled in (like it did later in the evening). Unfortunately these two did not interact as much as needed for central NC and the transfer of energy basically skipped over central NC and did not provide any lift, or vertical velocity. Feel free to ask if you have any questions or if I didn’t explain it well enough.

[Upstate Tiger]

current US snowfall coverage.  
 

[cbmclean]

2 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

current US snowfall coverage.  
 

Man I feel bad for the plains westward; total dud winter for them.