Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[CaryWx]

7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

18z GFS was surprised but 18z GEFS continues to show a solid signal for next sunday. 

Can you post the ensemble mean?

[StantonParkHoya]

18z GFS keeps the snow down around ILM to Cape Lookout.

Right where we want it at this stage.


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[WXNewton]

9 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

18z GFS keeps the snow down around ILM to Cape Lookout.

Right where we want it at this stage.


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Exactly! The ensembles have a strong signal for many!

[BornAgain13]

2 hours ago, CaryWx said:

Can you post the ensemble mean?

 

[Upstate Tiger]

Next weekend’s potential storm is suppressed.  As others have said, probably a good thing at this range.  
 

The crazy thing on the models long range is one clipper after another after another.  
 

We are going to see some frozen bodies of water that haven’t been frozen in decades.  

[suzook]

58 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Next weekend’s potential storm is suppressed.  As others have said, probably a good thing at this range.  
 

The crazy thing on the models long range is one clipper after another after another.  
 

We are going to see some frozen bodies of water that haven’t been frozen in decades.  

Its been very dry the last 8mos or so for most. Mother nature giving back finally.

[BornAgain13]

Next weekends threat is still there. The OPs are suppressed but the ensembles still have a decent signal. Will be interesting to see what it looks like the next couple of days

[BooneWX]

Ready to get hurt again 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

CFS has 5 nor'easters after this one

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

This is amazing!

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Not nearly suppressed enough.

[NC_hailstorm]

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

I was reading this model with all the new bells and whistles did really well on this current storm 6 days ago.Just a heads up.

[Huriken]

Decent signal for something next weekend. We'll see if it holds or evaporates into nothing.

[WNC_Fort]

I believe this is a coastal system. Suppression will win here. Just my hunch.

[BooneWX]

15 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

I was reading this model with all the new bells and whistles did really well on this current storm 6 days ago.Just a heads up.

Weathernext crushed it! It was north all week, even when no other guidance showed it. 

[wncsnow]

7 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

I believe this is a coastal system. Suppression will win here. Just my hunch.

I agree for now 

[Brick Tamland]

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

How do you get access to this model? Do you have to pay for it?

[BornAgain13]

It does look more suppressed on all OPS. But a lot of ensembles still show a decent signal. Worth keep an eye on for sure

[BooneWX]

11 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I agree for now 

Ice for us this weekend and snow for the beach boys, you already know how this will play out. 

[Snowacane]

8 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

How do you get access to this model? Do you have to pay for it?

https://deepmind.google/science/weathernext/

[BornAgain13]

What does the Google model show? Lol

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

Waiting for EPS ensemble but trend has been east. If trough digs a little further west, it’s good for most. Far eastern NC folks have the best shot.


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[BornAgain13]

3 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

Waiting for EPS ensemble but trend has been east. If trough digs a little further west, it’s good for most. Far eastern NC folks have the best shot.


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EPS

 

[BornAgain13]

CMC ensemble 

[BornAgain13]

GEFS

[BornAgain13]

UKMET ensemble 

[letitsnow]

You know things are way out of control when the NWS has to put this into their AFD (FFC)

Source - National Weather Service

Storm Threat Late Next Week? (Spoiler: Unlikely For Now)

You may have heard about or seen posts on social media regarding
a snow or winter weather threat in Georgia late next week or next
weekend. Well, at this time, that threat appears to be quite low.
The two primary ensemble models (ECMWF ENS and GEFS), which
combine for over 70 members, are showing very strong agreement on
the much cooler than normal airmass over the region. They`re also
in pretty strong agreement on the region being in a dry and
precipitation free airmass, with only a small sample (less than
10%) having some moisture moving through. So for now, we will
continue to watch how things progress, but keep any winter
weather out of the official forecast.