Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[Upstate Tiger]

Happy hour has the sads for this week.  
 

But we have a monster storm only 12 days away.  

[BornAgain13]

I guess the GFS has folded for this weekend? 

[SnowDawg]

I guess at this point I’m hoping to see maybe an inch out of the first one if I’m lucky. Can’t throw in the towel on the second one yet but man, I actually had a little hope in that one.

[BooneWX]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

My kids have the flu so I feel this

I’m sorry brother. We found out tonight that our daughter was heavily exposed right before the weekend. Hoping for the best but preparing for the downturn. 

[BooneWX]

We suck at weather, yes, but if there’s any bright side to the second storm, we do have cold air around, we’ve just lost our precip. Wouldn’t be shocked to see the models moisten up a bit closer but that’s also tricky given that everything has verified drier in real time lately.

[franklin NCwx]

We need a southern stream!

[Upstate Tiger]

54 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

I guess the GFS has folded for this weekend? 

I wouldn’t write anything off yet, especially next weekend.  
 

But I also thought the Panthers were going to hang on and upset the Rams so what do I know?  

[wncsnow]

1 hour ago, franklin NCwx said:

We need a southern stream!

I'm so tired of the northern stream I'm ready to put tariffs on it

[HWY316wx]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

I’m looking forward to cold dominating the next 10 or so days! That 82 F high was a bit much. The cold will be much better for outdoor activities for me.

Good to see you around.  Maybe we can mess around and score one before winter is out.

[BornAgain13]

I guess if theirs anything that looks more certain to talk about is there's no sign of any warm ups after the next couple days... Very Cold weather coming it seems. 

[BornAgain13]

0z NAM looked better than 18z and gives some light accumulation outside the mountains 

[SnowDawg]

51 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

I guess if theirs anything that looks more certain to talk about is there's no sign of any warm ups after the next couple days... Very Cold weather coming it seems. 

Yeah, for a few days there it looked like it was gonna go super zonal and just flood the continent with pacific air, but now it looks like maybe a brief moderation then cycles back by late month. Makes sense given the MJO progs as well.

[NorthHillsWx]

I said this earlier and I’ll say it again: it can’t even rain here I don’t know why we think it can snow. Until we fix that it doesn’t matter if it’s cold or warm the common theme will be dry 

[wncsnow]

GFS looks like the Euro now for the first wave. 

[wncsnow]

Still looks like a nice upslope event with possibly a Lake Michigan connection 

[GaWx]

Folks, are y’all sitting down? Or better yet, lying down?

 Ok, feast your eyes on the 0Z UKMET!

[GaWx]

What the? Can we stop here?

[Coach McGuirk]

41 minutes ago, GaWx said:

What the? Can we stop here?

To Quote The Critic: "It Stinks!"

[GaWx]

25 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

To Quote The Critic: "It Stinks!"

How? The Euro gives nearly every active SE forum member snow. How often does that actually happen?

0Z EPS members: includes a few Gulf/SE solutions (6 of 50) for the SEmost extent like the op:

 

[metalicwx367]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

What the? Can we stop here?

If this were to occur, it would be almost exactly a year from last winter's Gulf Coast snow event. I'm rooting for you guys. We've finally made up for our snow drought here in Anchorage with us picking up 29 inches of snow over the last 6 days. I've never seen so much in this short of a period snow in my life.

[Coach McGuirk]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

How? The Euro gives nearly every active SE forum member snow. How often does that actually happen?

0Z EPS members: includes a few Gulf/SE solutions (6 of 50) for the SEmost extent like the op:

 

There are a lot of nothingburgers. 

[BornAgain13]

6z GEFS comes back to life for Sunday/Monday. Still not much there from the GFS 

[BornAgain13]

Not really sure what the 0z Euro and Oz UK were cooking for Sun/Mon. Lol

[BooneWX]

I want a dose of whatever the Ukie was serving last night 

[olafminesaw]

21 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I want a dose of whatever the Ukie was serving last night 

The Euro had the same general idea, just didn't quite get it done with the phasing

[BooneWX]

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

The Euro had the same general idea, just didn't quite get it done with the phasing

Be nice to have some blocking to help right now

[eyewall]

It looks like I am going to be documenting the lake levels in Jordan Lake as opposed to any snowfall. 

[GaWx]

7 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said:

There are a lot of nothingburgers. 

I was referring to the 0Z Euro op that you had commented on when I said it had the extreme rarity of snow for nearly all active SE members. Not surprisingly because of that rarity, the 6Z 144 Euro vs 0Z 150 Euro showed that was going to be taken away from many had that run gone out further. Also, the 6Z EPS at 144 looked worse than 0Z EPS at 150.

[BooneWX]

Icon was a nice step in the direction we want for system 2

[BooneWX]

GFS with a substantial shift west from 0z on the energy for the second system.