Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[Upstate Tiger]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Everyone always laughs at GEFS and GFS but has it been any worse that other models for next week? Look at the euro, 5 days ago it was honking the horn for a cold and stormy pattern in the east and everyone was excited and now it’s gone absolute torch on everyone. I’m not defending GEFS, but it never really bought that week like other modeling did even though it was wishy washy. There’s something to be said if a model suite locks in consistently to a period then pulls the rug vs one that can’t make its mind up on same period. Both suck for us, but king euro failed miserably on this period. Mid month and beyond I don’t even care about yet we can’t even get 2 weeks somewhat accurate. Signs are looking 2021-ish to me with pattern change that never happens but I’m just a lurker on pattern recognition 

After conducting a thorough quantitative analysis of all model and teleconnections verification scores, I have concluded:

The model that predicts AN and no frozen precipitation in the SE verifies almost 100% of the time.  

[Snowacane]

Time to get a tan winter!!!!

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Upstate Tiger said:

After conducting a thorough quantitative analysis of all model and teleconnections verification scores, I have concluded:

The model that predicts AN and no frozen precipitation in the SE verifies almost 100% of the time.  

 Folks should remember that the models were significantly too warm in advance of the 3 weeks starting Thanksgiving Week as well as for Dec 29th through today. So, they had been way off almost all in the too warm direction when they were off late Nov through today.
 
 They did a good job for the historic Dec torch well in advance.

[Upstate Tiger]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Folks should remember that the models were significantly too warm in advance of the 3 weeks starting Thanksgiving Week as well as for Dec 29th through today. So, they had been way off almost all in the too warm direction when they were off late Nov through today.
 
 They did a good job for the historic Dec torch well in advance.

I hope the 18z GFS is wrong because the entire continent was AN until the end when the west went BN.  More worrisome is its dry as a bone in the SE.  

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Folks should remember that the models were significantly too warm in advance of the 3 weeks starting Thanksgiving Week as well as for Dec 29th through today. So, they had been way off almost all in the too warm direction when they were off late Nov through today.
 
 They did a good job for the historic Dec torch well in advance.

Good point GaWx but we started to see signs of a developing -NAO which eventually merged with that funky GOA ridge.  The 12 Z EPS Ensemble mean gave me little hope but doesn’t jive with American or Canadian.  
 

Does anyone know how La Niña is faring?  We something to change soon so that mid month to February can be salvaged.

[GaWx]

 

20 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

Good point GaWx but we started to see signs of a developing -NAO which eventually merged with that funky GOA ridge.  The 12 Z EPS Ensemble mean gave me little hope but doesn’t jive with American or Canadian.  
 

Does anyone know how La Niña is faring?  We something to change soon so that mid month to February can be salvaged.

 Yeah, the 12Z EPS gives me hope. About all we know with decent confidence based on model consensus is that there will probably be a 4-5 day long torch (sound familiar?) mainly mid to next week. That covers Jan 6-10. After that, it’s a crap-shoot. If the 12Z EPS were to verify well, then things could be getting more interesting starting the week after next regardless of what todays EWs showed. By the way, the EW is essentially an extension of the 0Z EPS.

[BooneWX]

Oh boy. Now we’re starting to see Bam have cold feet.

[NorthHillsWx]

https://x.com/bam_weather/status/2007075997565284655?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g
 

This is the tweet. I think we’re seeing all the signs that winter might not return in January. I wish I could be optimistic but nothing looks good on modeling and all the long range indicators are starting to throw red flags. I think a lot of Mets jumped the gun before Christmas

[Met1985]

34 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

https://x.com/bam_weather/status/2007075997565284655?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g
 

This is the tweet. I think we’re seeing all the signs that winter might not return in January. I wish I could be optimistic but nothing looks good on modeling and all the long range indicators are starting to throw red flags. I think a lot of Mets jumped the gun before Christmas

We can still score with above normal or a near normal temp profile in Canada. What we don't need is an arctic high pressing so far south that it's 0 degree and dry as a bone. Our best snows are thread the needle honestly.  Some win some don't but that's winter in the SE.

[BooneWX]

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

We can still score with above normal or a near normal temp profile in Canada. What we don't need is an arctic high pressing so far south that it's 0 degree and dry as a bone. Our best snows are thread the needle honestly.  Some win some don't but that's winter in the SE.

I tend to agree and suppression would be equally bad if we swing for too much cold. My only concern with Canada being the only source region is how much cold air do we scour out through the 10th and is there any room for a resupply? It’s going to be like walking on a tightrope looking at the ensembles because Canada modifies quite a bit. 

[Upstate Tiger]

Well the 12Z Goofus gets rid of the ridge at least.  Interested to see what the Euro shows after next week.

[Met1985]

32 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I tend to agree and suppression would be equally bad if we swing for too much cold. My only concern with Canada being the only source region is how much cold air do we scour out through the 10th and is there any room for a resupply? It’s going to be like walking on a tightrope looking at the ensembles because Canada modifies quite a bit. 

Well the NW territories have had temps anywhere from negative 30 to near negative 60 degrees recently.  And im sorry but im not hedging bets on long range this season.  Just like when wncsnow said that the 10th through the 20th would verify cold. I said I don't trust the models that far out this season. Now look at everything.  

[Met1985]

3 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Well the 12Z Goofus gets rid of the ridge at least.  Interested to see what the Euro shows after next week.

Overnight Euro didn't look bad. Hopefully we get through this warm-up and then the pattern will be a bit more favorable.  Although I've seen that the real time frame to look at is the end of January through the first of February. 

[BooneWX]

23 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Well the NW territories have had temps anywhere from negative 30 to near negative 60 degrees recently.  And im sorry but im not hedging bets on long range this season.  Just like when wncsnow said that the 10th through the 20th would verify cold. I said I don't trust the models that far out this season. Now look at everything.  

I definitely agree there. We’re in some serious uncharted territory rn. We joke about the models being garbage but this is the first year I’ve seen even ensembles be largely clueless into the mid range. 

[wncsnow]

59 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Well the NW territories have had temps anywhere from negative 30 to near negative 60 degrees recently.  And im sorry but im not hedging bets on long range this season.  Just like when wncsnow said that the 10th through the 20th would verify cold. I said I don't trust the models that far out this season. Now look at everything.  

1. I never said it would verify cold, I said it was a time period to watch (which it still could be). I was never sold on the first 10 days of January thats going to be a torch

2. You generally bet on cold and snowy regardless of what the models say and thats ok. 

[GaWx]

12Z Euro/GFS coldest low at Chicago 1/6-1/18: 22/30

12Z EPS/GEFS coldest low at Chicago 1/6-18: 22/25

Normal low 20-18

Not good for SE cold prospects. So, hopefully they’re going to turn out way too warm like 12/28-1/1 and earlier periods did. We’ll see. If not, it’s going to be very hard for the SE overall to get substantially cold before 1/20.

Those 90 day bias maps had Chicago too warm by 4 F for the 11-15 fwiw:

[Met1985]

17 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

1. I never said it would verify cold, I said it was a time period to watch (which it still could be). I was never sold on the first 10 days of January thats going to be a torch

2. You generally bet on cold and snowy regardless of what the models say and thats ok. 

You damn right I do. Im an optimist even when the pattern is crappy.  Seen it too many times.  The pattern is volatile and honestly it's been like that for most of the season. No reason for that to change now. I hope your right about after the 10th. Many ensembles look to build the EPO ridge out west after that time period but as we've seen the ridge out west collapses...

[Met1985]

12z euro. It's in the mid to long range and we've seen what the points look like but this is kind of what we want.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[GaWx]

30 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

12z euro. It's in the mid to long range and we've seen what the points look like but this is kind of what we want.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

 That all looks pretty good at H5. But keep in mind that the Midwest only barely cools back down to NN briefly at best during these periods on that Euro run with AN dominating. And the GFS never even gets down to NN. Hopefully, the Euro and especially the GFS will cool off substantially on the ground in the Midwest as we get closer just as occurred for as recent periods as 12/28-today.

[olafminesaw]

36 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 That all looks pretty good at H5. But keep in mind that the Midwest only barely cools back down to NN briefly at best during these periods on that Euro run with AN dominating. And the GFS never even gets down to NN. Hopefully, the Euro and especially the GFS will cool off substantially on the ground in the Midwest as we get closer just as occurred for as recent periods as 12/28-today.

Yeah, as much as the concern has been that cold dumps to our West, it seems like the trend today has been to make any cold air in North America disappear