Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[Upstate Tiger]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Everyone always laughs at GEFS and GFS but has it been any worse that other models for next week? Look at the euro, 5 days ago it was honking the horn for a cold and stormy pattern in the east and everyone was excited and now it’s gone absolute torch on everyone. I’m not defending GEFS, but it never really bought that week like other modeling did even though it was wishy washy. There’s something to be said if a model suite locks in consistently to a period then pulls the rug vs one that can’t make its mind up on same period. Both suck for us, but king euro failed miserably on this period. Mid month and beyond I don’t even care about yet we can’t even get 2 weeks somewhat accurate. Signs are looking 2021-ish to me with pattern change that never happens but I’m just a lurker on pattern recognition 

After conducting a thorough quantitative analysis of all model and teleconnections verification scores, I have concluded:

The model that predicts AN and no frozen precipitation in the SE verifies almost 100% of the time.  

[Snowacane]

Time to get a tan winter!!!!

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Upstate Tiger said:

After conducting a thorough quantitative analysis of all model and teleconnections verification scores, I have concluded:

The model that predicts AN and no frozen precipitation in the SE verifies almost 100% of the time.  

 Folks should remember that the models were significantly too warm in advance of the 3 weeks starting Thanksgiving Week as well as for Dec 29th through today. So, they had been way off almost all in the too warm direction when they were off late Nov through today.
 
 They did a good job for the historic Dec torch well in advance.

[Upstate Tiger]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Folks should remember that the models were significantly too warm in advance of the 3 weeks starting Thanksgiving Week as well as for Dec 29th through today. So, they had been way off almost all in the too warm direction when they were off late Nov through today.
 
 They did a good job for the historic Dec torch well in advance.

I hope the 18z GFS is wrong because the entire continent was AN until the end when the west went BN.  More worrisome is its dry as a bone in the SE.  

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Folks should remember that the models were significantly too warm in advance of the 3 weeks starting Thanksgiving Week as well as for Dec 29th through today. So, they had been way off almost all in the too warm direction when they were off late Nov through today.
 
 They did a good job for the historic Dec torch well in advance.

Good point GaWx but we started to see signs of a developing -NAO which eventually merged with that funky GOA ridge.  The 12 Z EPS Ensemble mean gave me little hope but doesn’t jive with American or Canadian.  
 

Does anyone know how La Niña is faring?  We something to change soon so that mid month to February can be salvaged.

[GaWx]

 

20 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

Good point GaWx but we started to see signs of a developing -NAO which eventually merged with that funky GOA ridge.  The 12 Z EPS Ensemble mean gave me little hope but doesn’t jive with American or Canadian.  
 

Does anyone know how La Niña is faring?  We something to change soon so that mid month to February can be salvaged.

 Yeah, the 12Z EPS gives me hope. About all we know with decent confidence based on model consensus is that there will probably be a 4-5 day long torch (sound familiar?) mainly mid to next week. That covers Jan 6-10. After that, it’s a crap-shoot. If the 12Z EPS were to verify well, then things could be getting more interesting starting the week after next regardless of what todays EWs showed. By the way, the EW is essentially an extension of the 0Z EPS.

[BooneWX]

Oh boy. Now we’re starting to see Bam have cold feet.

[NorthHillsWx]

https://x.com/bam_weather/status/2007075997565284655?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g
 

This is the tweet. I think we’re seeing all the signs that winter might not return in January. I wish I could be optimistic but nothing looks good on modeling and all the long range indicators are starting to throw red flags. I think a lot of Mets jumped the gun before Christmas

[Met1985]

34 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

https://x.com/bam_weather/status/2007075997565284655?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g
 

This is the tweet. I think we’re seeing all the signs that winter might not return in January. I wish I could be optimistic but nothing looks good on modeling and all the long range indicators are starting to throw red flags. I think a lot of Mets jumped the gun before Christmas

We can still score with above normal or a near normal temp profile in Canada. What we don't need is an arctic high pressing so far south that it's 0 degree and dry as a bone. Our best snows are thread the needle honestly.  Some win some don't but that's winter in the SE.