Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[suzook]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Happy hour GFS literally drops no QPF the ENTIRE RUN in central NC! Cold isn’t the main issue!!!

I've been complaining about lack of rain since spring. Unfortunately it's getting really bad in my parts. We are way under in precip for the year, and it looks to continue in the new year.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 I love the SE brand of cold. I’ve had more than enough mild after 7 days straight of torchy and sweaty 73-80. Thank goodness a return to a long torch isn’t in the forecast. I’m hoping for mainly BN to NN with low dewpoints (sub-45 is best) til further notice! Highs of 65 or lower other than a few low 70s scattered in and lows mainly in the 30s-40s. This is best for walking.

To me, today was perfect. High right at 40 with sun. Maybe I’m sick in the head, but 40 with sun is like a crispy warm to me. Love it

[olafminesaw]

GEFS and AI GEFS both showing cold around the 12th, while the EPS is warm

[NorthHillsWx]

34 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

GEFS and AI GEFS both showing cold around the 12th, while the EPS is warm

AI GFS has consistently shown a ripe pattern but I’m not sure it’s the one we want to hug. Maybe it scores a coup here. When EPS went south the other forum has turned into an endless stream of of AIGFS posts because it’s been a very good look

[wncsnow]

I'm becoming concerned about the cold push going west near the middle of the month. The West Atlantic Ridge is starting to pop up on globals

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

25 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I'm becoming concerned about the cold push going west near the middle of the month. The West Atlantic Ridge is starting to pop up on globals

Me too.

[olafminesaw]

Given the -NAO, we would have to really be cursed not to get any cold air in Jan. Linking up the moisture with the cold is of course another matter

[GaWx]

28 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I'm becoming concerned about the cold push going west near the middle of the month. The West Atlantic Ridge is starting to pop up on globals

That is a legit concern for me, too. The forecasted -EPO/+TNH cold pattern for the central US eventually looks great for cold domination prospects for the central US, much of the Midwest, and the N NE. But the biggest risk against sustainable cold is in the SE primarily and Mid-Atlantic secondarily, where the SE ridge may be too strong if the PNA in the means doesn’t go positive. This is very difficult to forecast this far out.

 Although I don’t like the warmer model developments of recent days for week 2 in the E US, my hope is still that the PNA in the means will flip for Jan averaged out to match the 100% of -ENSO -PNA Decs since 1983-4 that went to a net +PNA for Jan. My other hope is that the 90 day -PNA bias of the GEFS/EPS/GEPS means that they’re currently off.

The GEFS AO looks better for midmonth vs yesterday fwiw.

[wncsnow]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

That is a legit concern for me, too. The forecasted -EPO/+TNH cold pattern for the central US eventually looks great for cold domination prospects for the central US, much of the Midwest, and the N NE. But the biggest risk against sustainable cold is in the SE primarily and Mid-Atlantic secondarily, where the SE ridge may be too strong if the PNA in the means doesn’t go positive. This is very difficult to forecast this far out.

 Although I don’t like the warmer model developments of recent days for week 2 in the E US, my hope is still that the PNA in the means will flip for Jan averaged out to match the 100% of -ENSO -PNA Decs since 1983-4 that went to a net +PNA for Jan. My other hope is that the 90 day -PNA bias of the GEFS/EPS/GEPS means that they’re currently off.

The GEFS AO looks better for midmonth vs yesterday fwiw.

It's concerning too because it is rare to have a cold, wintry February or March during La Nina's as olaf's post shows. Even with a -NAO. If we keep delaying the cold coming to the SE it may never come at all. All I would like to see is a week or 2 period of a decent pattern with cold and an active STJ. 

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

47 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Given the -NAO, we would have to really be cursed not to get any cold air in Jan. Linking up the moisture with the cold is of course another matter

Thanks for posting this!  Very cool big picture approach that I like.

Maybe I’m missing something but NAO didn’t appear to look good on the Ensembles moving D10-15 500 mb graphics.  Another consideration is that La Niña may become less of a factor over time which could bring in other factors like MJO.  

 

 

[wncsnow]

GEFS looks ugly through mid month, EPS is a bit better but doesn't bring much cold down until the very end of the run about 15 days from now. What a difference a couple of days make. Like I said previously, I would be happy with a 2 week at or below average period with an active storm track. 

[Grayman]

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

GEFS looks ugly through mid month, EPS is a bit better but doesn't bring much cold down until the very end of the run about 15 days from now. What a difference a couple of days make. Like I said previously, I would be happy with a 2 week at or below average period with an active storm track. 

Maybe we can flip back but it usually doesn’t work that way for us. All we want is one good snow. That’s not asking for much from us weenies. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Mid 

[NorthHillsWx]

It’s unfortunate there just isn’t enough cold air around Saturday because that slider has trended significantly wetter with a very favorable track for a cross state NC storm. Sad really 

[wncsnow]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It’s unfortunate there just isn’t enough cold air around Saturday because that slider has trended significantly wetter with a very favorable track for a cross state NC storm. Sad really 

We'll take 40s and rain instead..we need the rain though 

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Mid 

I see they finally changed their Tune a bit. 

[WiseWeather]

New year…. Same models….



.

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

We are definitely at least 2 weeks away from a Brick Tamland sighting at peak climatology.  At least Wake Forest scored nearly an inch earlier.  I only had 0.3 here a bit north of Leesville.  
 

EPS wasn’t a terrible look by the end of the run.  It would be good to see all models converge towards ridging in the west with the SE ridge becoming a non factor.  We shall see however because nothing good snowfall-wise is coming until this improves.

[eyewall]

Happy new year! May the models be ever in our favor! 

[BooneWX]

A lot of this comes down to the NAO. We’ve lost that stout blocking signature significantly. The early month period of cold was only going to be possible if the -NAO bullied the rest of the patten into submission. 
 

Mid-month onward, this is the first time (and I hate to say it), that I’m really starting to see some red flags on the cold forecast. On modeling it’s essentially the traditional ensembles vs AI. The AI ensembles are much more aggressive in favor of a cold pattern getting established by mid month so we’ll get a very good verification check in a week or two. Onto my red flags: what exactly is moving this pattern? PNA looks neutral-ish, we’re losing the -NAO. -EPOs are great, that should dump some cold into the conus but without a solid western ridge in place, my bet would be that it dumps into the Rockies and bleeds east slowly. That would be a modified mess, even if it makes it here. 
 

- MJO - stuck in the cod. This coupled with our meh teleconnections are combining for model volatility. We’re at a fork in the road and something has to give. 
 

- ENSO still favors a SER and we need help elsewhere to beat that down. 

[tarheelwx]

I haven't chimed in much at all this season.  What has happened in the last week or so with a promising pattern disappearing has been all too common the last few years.  Everyone gets worked up that it's coming as many of our "experts" are fully on board.  The problem that I've seen is that these bullish forecasts for the holy grail pattern (or close to it) are based on 2/3/4 week  ensembles and indexes that quite frankly are no better than a 10 day deterministic forecast.  Throughout all of the excitement over the last couple of weeks, I just didn't see a whole lot there that looked promising.  As in the past, I read what the "experts" were saying and remained optimistic.  Here we sit on Jan 1 with the first 2 weeks pretty much shot.  So, we'll likely have peak climo temp wise (Jan 15-30) still on the table for possibly having something good happen.  After that, temps are headed north and it gets more difficult to have a classic winter pattern that would have snow on the ground for more than a day or two.   It can certainly happen, but times like that are fewer and further between as time goes along.  Happy New Year folks!

TW

[BooneWX]

2 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

I haven't chimed in much at all this season.  What has happened in the last week or so with a promising pattern disappearing has been all too common the last few years.  Everyone gets worked up that it's coming as many of our "experts" are fully on board.  The problem that I've seen is that these bullish forecasts for the holy grail pattern (or close to it) are based on 2/3/4 week  ensembles and indexes that quite frankly are no better than a 10 day deterministic forecast.  Throughout all of the excitement over the last couple of weeks, I just didn't see a whole lot there that looked promising.  As in the past, I read what the "experts" were saying and remained optimistic.  Here we sit on Jan 1 with the first 2 weeks pretty much shot.  So, we'll likely have peak climo temp wise (Jan 15-30) still on the table for possibly having something good happen.  After that, temps are headed north and it gets more difficult to have a classic winter pattern that would have snow on the ground for more than a day or two.   It can certainly happen, but times like that are fewer and further between as time goes along.  Happy New Year folks!

TW

You’re a great poster TW! Chime in more. But you’re right. The ole rug pull is common around here. I’ve been most at peace with it this year than ever before. It is what it is. It hurts to see it happen but what can we do?

[wncsnow]

The next big snow within driving distance will be my next chase. I NEED SNOW lol

[BooneWX]

38 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The next big snow within driving distance will be my next chase. I NEED SNOW lol

Shouldn’t have to go far. At some point the cold air will come with a clipper and going up 221 will be a short trek for you. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Everyone always laughs at GEFS and GFS but has it been any worse that other models for next week? Look at the euro, 5 days ago it was honking the horn for a cold and stormy pattern in the east and everyone was excited and now it’s gone absolute torch on everyone. I’m not defending GEFS, but it never really bought that week like other modeling did even though it was wishy washy. There’s something to be said if a model suite locks in consistently to a period then pulls the rug vs one that can’t make its mind up on same period. Both suck for us, but king euro failed miserably on this period. Mid month and beyond I don’t even care about yet we can’t even get 2 weeks somewhat accurate. Signs are looking 2021-ish to me with pattern change that never happens but I’m just a lurker on pattern recognition 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Everyone always laughs at GEFS and GFS but has it been any worse that other models for next week? Look at the euro, 5 days ago it was honking the horn for a cold and stormy pattern in the east and everyone was excited and now it’s gone absolute torch on everyone. I’m not defending GEFS, but it never really bought that week like other modeling did even though it was wishy washy. There’s something to be said if a model suite locks in consistently to a period then pulls the rug vs one that can’t make its mind up on same period. Both suck for us, but king euro failed miserably on this period. Mid month and beyond I don’t even care about yet we can’t even get 2 weeks somewhat accurate. Signs are looking 2021-ish to me with pattern change that never happens but I’m just a lurker on pattern recognition 

The “Bleaklies” (thanks, ColdRain, for coming up with that hilarious nickname) are almost the polar opposite of last year for the SE at this time.

 Related to your mention of the Euro, one “bleak” (Jan 12-18) has gone from this encouraging run just two days ago:

 

To the commode today:

[GaWx]

 @NorthHillsWxHow about this bleak that covers, next week (Jan 5-11)?

Four days ago: encouraging

Today: worse than the commode, this is in the hot-tub: this is Torch #2

 

[wncsnow]

50 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 @NorthHillsWxHow about this bleak that covers, next week (Jan 5-11)?

Four days ago: encouraging

Today: worse than the commode, this is in the hot-tub: this is Torch #2

 

Remember my post about the Weeklies a week or so ago? 

[NorthHillsWx]

17 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Remember my post about the Weeklies a week or so ago? 

Weeklies were really good last year I’ll give them that but they’ve been useless this winter 

[GaWx]

24 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Remember my post about the Weeklies a week or so ago? 

 They still have value for guidance. Some runs/periods are better than others. At times they’ve been stellar while at other times they’ve been in the commode. Overall they’re the best that we have for the long range, which is very hard for models to forecast. 
 
 But in this case, the medium range of the Euro has been in the commode with too cold apparently! Before this, the medium range of models had been too warm for that cold 3 week period and for 12/29-1/1.