Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[suzook]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Happy hour GFS literally drops no QPF the ENTIRE RUN in central NC! Cold isn’t the main issue!!!

I've been complaining about lack of rain since spring. Unfortunately it's getting really bad in my parts. We are way under in precip for the year, and it looks to continue in the new year.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 I love the SE brand of cold. I’ve had more than enough mild after 7 days straight of torchy and sweaty 73-80. Thank goodness a return to a long torch isn’t in the forecast. I’m hoping for mainly BN to NN with low dewpoints (sub-45 is best) til further notice! Highs of 65 or lower other than a few low 70s scattered in and lows mainly in the 30s-40s. This is best for walking.

To me, today was perfect. High right at 40 with sun. Maybe I’m sick in the head, but 40 with sun is like a crispy warm to me. Love it

[olafminesaw]

GEFS and AI GEFS both showing cold around the 12th, while the EPS is warm

[NorthHillsWx]

34 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

GEFS and AI GEFS both showing cold around the 12th, while the EPS is warm

AI GFS has consistently shown a ripe pattern but I’m not sure it’s the one we want to hug. Maybe it scores a coup here. When EPS went south the other forum has turned into an endless stream of of AIGFS posts because it’s been a very good look

[wncsnow]

I'm becoming concerned about the cold push going west near the middle of the month. The West Atlantic Ridge is starting to pop up on globals

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

25 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I'm becoming concerned about the cold push going west near the middle of the month. The West Atlantic Ridge is starting to pop up on globals

Me too.

[olafminesaw]

Given the -NAO, we would have to really be cursed not to get any cold air in Jan. Linking up the moisture with the cold is of course another matter

[GaWx]

28 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I'm becoming concerned about the cold push going west near the middle of the month. The West Atlantic Ridge is starting to pop up on globals

That is a legit concern for me, too. The forecasted -EPO/+TNH cold pattern for the central US eventually looks great for cold domination prospects for the central US, much of the Midwest, and the N NE. But the biggest risk against sustainable cold is in the SE primarily and Mid-Atlantic secondarily, where the SE ridge may be too strong if the PNA in the means doesn’t go positive. This is very difficult to forecast this far out.

 Although I don’t like the warmer model developments of recent days for week 2 in the E US, my hope is still that the PNA in the means will flip for Jan averaged out to match the 100% of -ENSO -PNA Decs since 1983-4 that went to a net +PNA for Jan. My other hope is that the 90 day -PNA bias of the GEFS/EPS/GEPS means that they’re currently off.

The GEFS AO looks better for midmonth vs yesterday fwiw.

[wncsnow]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

That is a legit concern for me, too. The forecasted -EPO/+TNH cold pattern for the central US eventually looks great for cold domination prospects for the central US, much of the Midwest, and the N NE. But the biggest risk against sustainable cold is in the SE primarily and Mid-Atlantic secondarily, where the SE ridge may be too strong if the PNA in the means doesn’t go positive. This is very difficult to forecast this far out.

 Although I don’t like the warmer model developments of recent days for week 2 in the E US, my hope is still that the PNA in the means will flip for Jan averaged out to match the 100% of -ENSO -PNA Decs since 1983-4 that went to a net +PNA for Jan. My other hope is that the 90 day -PNA bias of the GEFS/EPS/GEPS means that they’re currently off.

The GEFS AO looks better for midmonth vs yesterday fwiw.

It's concerning too because it is rare to have a cold, wintry February or March during La Nina's as olaf's post shows. Even with a -NAO. If we keep delaying the cold coming to the SE it may never come at all. All I would like to see is a week or 2 period of a decent pattern with cold and an active STJ. 

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

47 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Given the -NAO, we would have to really be cursed not to get any cold air in Jan. Linking up the moisture with the cold is of course another matter

Thanks for posting this!  Very cool big picture approach that I like.

Maybe I’m missing something but NAO didn’t appear to look good on the Ensembles moving D10-15 500 mb graphics.  Another consideration is that La Niña may become less of a factor over time which could bring in other factors like MJO.  

 

 

[wncsnow]

GEFS looks ugly through mid month, EPS is a bit better but doesn't bring much cold down until the very end of the run about 15 days from now. What a difference a couple of days make. Like I said previously, I would be happy with a 2 week at or below average period with an active storm track. 

[Grayman]

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

GEFS looks ugly through mid month, EPS is a bit better but doesn't bring much cold down until the very end of the run about 15 days from now. What a difference a couple of days make. Like I said previously, I would be happy with a 2 week at or below average period with an active storm track. 

Maybe we can flip back but it usually doesn’t work that way for us. All we want is one good snow. That’s not asking for much from us weenies.