January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[TSSN+]

Just now, peribonca said:

CMC looks to be phasing around 102h

Yes this looks good 

[winter_warlock]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z GFS is a reasonable "fail" scenario where the shortwave doesn't eject cleanly -AND- the confluence to the north is stronger. Even with that in mind, it looks like a solid plowable to warning level snowfall for the entire subforum with no temp issue - and it's on a weekend.

 Not for us in North Central MD

[Amped]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

So did 6z ai euro 

Actually a 3rd one post 300

[Ralph Wiggum]

Cmc guys

[Disc]

This is good. This is very Euro-like. These piece here grabs our Baja SW.. and boom.

 

 

[TSSN+]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Cmc guys

Looks like will be good 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

CMC so far with a bit less suppressed of a south west though I doubt it fully can climb to us.

Scratch that as others have pointed out it looks to phasing with the NS instead of being killed by it. This is exactly how the new CMC at 0z got us a complete ice storm as it jacked the whole track way north. Though the 12z CMC seems to be a bit further south so it may crush us

[yoda]

Oh

 

[SnowenOutThere]

@stormtracker I believe your services are needed

[87storms]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gfs AI is a triple header lol

#2

 

#3

 

 

Our last heater was 2015. WDI? Lol

 

I could absolutely picture the flagship storm in this pattern getting pushed out to next week...which is fine.  We're pretty great at early to mid-February snowstorms.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Looks like will be good 

 

It looks loaded for sure...

[Eskimo Joe]

MJO progression is near perfect for snow lover

 

 

[stormtracker]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

@stormtracker I believe your services are needed

Heh..almost...but always gotta be sure...but that looks fantastic 

[peribonca]

At 114 CMC has it snowing from New Jersey to Nevada!

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, stormtracker said:

It looks loaded for sure...

Had light snow breaking out at 1 am on Saturday with precip all the way back to the desert southwest.

[bncho]

I completely forgot about the CMC lol

[TSSN+]

Wrecked 

[stormtracker]

I'd say F word now, but kinda worried about it being TOO amp'd lol (CMC)

[mattie g]

15 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yep cold smoke. Especially for the NW crew. Might not get the max precip stripe. But we get the powder. 

Just going on the guidance we’re seeing right now, I don’t see why NW of the cities should be even colder/smokier than those of us closer in. This is really looking likelier to be a super cold event everywhere from start to finish.

[bncho]

CMC absolutely CAVED!!!! 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Had light snow breaking out at 1 am on Saturday with precip all the way back to the desert southwest.

Almost looks like its going for a triple phase in the plains. Or it could just crush it... NVM

[stormtracker]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Wrecked 

Waiting for temps...if the thermals are right...

[yoda]

Hmmm... mixy in RIC at 132...

[stormtracker]

Ok it's snow at 132...it's a nice hit...I just hope we hang on

[Shad]

CMC brings ice into Virginia.....

[TSSN+]

Folks 

[Terpeast]

Step in the right direction by gfs. And the cmc, that’s something else!

[SnowenOutThere]

We broke Tropical Tidbits output scaling

[stormtracker]

Just now, yoda said:

Hmmm... mixy in RIC at 132...

Yup.  That was my issue.   We all know no point in hanging on to thermals this far out...point is, we get a system on top of us and an another op that joins the AIs and not have this thing slide s and e of us

[87storms]

Canadian is our boom scenario where the SW energy actually does eject and tap into the gulf...producing basically a hecs.  Unfortunately, it's not the Euro.