January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[stormtracker]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

There was more space last run for it to turn and was shaper. Now you can see 18z the energy all kinda connected not allowing the lead wave to do its thing as much. Need to get that yellow connector energy out of there. 

Agreed.

[CAPE]

The vorticity dropping southward over the ridge phases in nicely behind the main shortwave on the 12z run.. not as much on 18z. Subtle differences.

[winter_warlock]

15 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Not bad at all...just a smidge drier

from NW to about 40 miles south of DC

Not bad at all for 4 to 5 days out

[stormtracker]

Just now, CAPE said:

The vorticity dropping southward phases in nicely behind the main shortwave on the 12z run.. not as much on 18z. Subtle differences.

Yup.  Just gotta watch if that continues or gets better on 0z

[bncho]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yup, that's all we were saying.  Man, accurately describing a run when it doesn't go super positive and people complaining is crazy.

Fair, I see what you're getting at. I blew things out of proportion.  I'll be better next time. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Fair, I see what you're getting at. I blew things out of proportion.  I'll be better next time. 

It's nothing to jump over at all.  We are just noting the changes, which are small and something to watch for.

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yup.  Just gotta watch if that continues or gets better on 0z

I agree, this run was noise. 

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yup.  Just gotta watch if that continues or gets better on 0z

lol your joking right. What always happens on the crossroads runs?

[mitchnick]

Latest Cfs2 forecast for February. 

I bet it gets wetter in future runs.

[DDweatherman]

As per a typical thing we need to avoid, sloppy phasing is at the top of the list. Need 0z to be cleaner like 12z was. Wouldn’t mind the 18z euro bridging the gap with something in the right direction, though it’s 6&18 runs never seem to 

[Ji]

is it suppose to be 67 degrees on January 27th?

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Latest Cfs2 forecast for February. 

there is that La nina hole again which means we are still in the same pattern of cold/dry warm wet

[Rvarookie]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

there is that La nina hole again which means we are still in the same pattern of cold/dry warm wet

Cursed

[wxdude64]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

is it suppose to be 67 degrees on January 27th?

If you're trying to break 1999's record high, yes. 

[Ephesians2]

GEFS is northwest of 12z and wetter:

(DCA went from 1.2" mean to 2.3")

 

There are also some members more amped than the op:

[stormtracker]

Ensemble Number 2 or 11 please

[Ji]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Ensemble Number 2 or 11 please

has that ever worked lol?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

See what happens when the PNA goes positive

low pressure on the coast correlation

Notice how it's much higher than forecasted too.. 14 day had it at neutral. 

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

See what happens when the PNA goes positive

low pressure on the coast correlation

Notice how it's much higher than forecasted too.. 14 day had it at neutral. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Are you cliff diving because of 18z runs? 

I couldn't believe when I saw 18z, I haven't checked for a day, and now there is a low from the gulf coast up the coast! It even gives Florida panhandle snow again! Very positively surprised. +PNA storms don't vanish as easily as -PNA

There may also be snow for the Patriots home game Sunday

[bncho]

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

That analysis is definitely spot on, but I will cough and it seems like we have these conversation sheets time we’re looking for positive trends, or now cast bust. The models tend to do a good job accounting for a lot of these things, maybe not at this range but especially closer in to game time…

[bncho]

13 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

See what happens when the PNA goes positive

low pressure on the coast correlation

Notice how it's much higher than forecasted too.. 14 day had it at neutral. 

see what happens when the PNA goes positive

see what happens when chuck goes positive

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Are you cliff diving because of 18z runs? 

I couldn't believe when I saw 18z, I haven't checked for a day, and now there is a low from the gulf coast up the coast! It even gives Florida panhandle snow again! Very positively surprised. +PNA storms don't vanish as easily as -PNA

There may also be snow for the Patriots home game Sunday

who are you?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

see what happens when the PNA goes positive

see what happens when chuck goes positive

One in the same lol! 

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

It could be a myriad of things. But also - things that are on like decadal cycles may be to blame. Consider that the modeling tends to be more stable at range for southern stream dominant systems. For many years now there has been a lot of northern stream influence - which the models objectively (not subjectively) are worse at predicting.

Beautifully stated and true.  

[Solution Man]

21 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Are you cliff diving because of 18z runs? 

I couldn't believe when I saw 18z, I haven't checked for a day, and now there is a low from the gulf coast up the coast! It even gives Florida panhandle snow again! Very positively surprised. +PNA storms don't vanish as easily as -PNA

There may also be snow for the Patriots home game Sunday

I’m not on the ledge Chuck

[WeatherGeek2025]

34 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

GEFS is northwest of 12z and wetter:

(DCA went from 1.2" mean to 2.3")

 

There are also some members more amped than the op:

give me number 2 or 7!!!

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, winter_warlock said:

People probably won't agree, but to me is seemed like models were more accurate about 15 years ago compared to now. But that's just me

Well they continue to try and do things they can’t do. In Nina’s they can’t provide accurate scientific data and is mostly 300 samples of examples. I think as they have tried to increase their resolution , that’s gotten worse.  Northern and southern stream cooperation along with transfers from west of applchns to off the coast just too many gears and parts to predict.  Rainstorm already effecting Atlanta and moving northeast ward is mostly already in place and easy. A’s work for us And models and they seem to be gone lately 

Where I draw heat is pointing this out . Frankly I can’t understand the defensiveness.  I guess unlike many I come here for information on what will most likely happen with some attention paid to consistency. .  Every single example of what has a 5% chance of occurring and covering every outcome imaginable just is not exciting for me and in fact discouraging .

 

 

 

 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Pay no attention to that.  People weenie me for saying "guys" this morning and I was right.   Not sure why people are afraid to X or weenie me, lol.  That admin tag don't mean shit

Let’s face it we are all weenies why the hell else are we here?  I love being here and seeing pbp of models and talking thd possibilities; that alone makes us all weenies enjoy the tracking!! Revel in the snow / weather!