January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

Just now, stormtracker said:

It's not good

every time we are at a crossroads...............

[bncho]

Just now, Ji said:

every time we are at a crossroads...............

shut up ji. At least wait for the euro

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

Maybe 18z too positively tilted?

I think the closed low was actually better positioned (further west and neutral/ slight neg tilt) vs 12z

[Alfoman]

Just now, bncho said:

Maybe 18z too positively tilted?

Think that is right - this isn't necessarily digging more, but rather staying too positively tilted for too long. 

 

[MDScienceTeacher]

We aren’t going to get more snow this year, are we? These models make me so sad. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, CAPE said:

Gonna need the inverted trough thing with the low offshore NC

Doesn't work out for us 

[Imgoinhungry]

every time we are at a crossroads...............

Yup. It is uncanny!


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[CAPE]

Just now, CAPE said:

Gonna need the inverted trough thing with the low offshore NC

Congrats OC to VA Beach with that lol. Still not much.

[Ji]

holy cow do we not know how to win. Hopefully its an off run hiccup but they need to get rid of the model. Went from 15 inches to 0 in one full day

[CAPE]

Skunk job.

My storm better have some balls this run lol.

[Imgoinhungry]

holy cow do we not know how to win. Hopefully its an off run hiccup but they need to get rid of the model. Went from 15 inches to 0 in one full day

Has been really bad this year. Less data due to noaa cuts? Less balloons going up or something?


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[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Doesn't work out for us 

Most of the time, whenever we start saying "we're gonna need ____ to do _____" we're already losing, lol

[Ji]

then when we do get cold and a southern stream the cold is historic and its congrats cancun.

[DDweatherman]

Just being 100% honest, this type of set up doesn’t excite me at all. Has fail written all over it for us. Such a limited track record of winning hoping for these to work in our favor. Literally need everything to go right, when we already struggle to hit in perfect patterns. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

then when we do get cold and a southern stream the cold is historic and its congrats cancun.

well surprisingly the southern stream bullied its way to us and we get snow. Sounds like we are punting 2 more weeks to this HECS

[midatlanticweather]

Gfs was on its own from the start. Faith in models 5+ days seems a fool's chase. I am guessing we will be fooled again soon. I am not mad at the models, I am mad for believing they may be correct. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, Ji said:

well surprisingly the southern stream bullied its way to us and we get snow. Sounds like we are punting 2 more weeks to this HECS

Get this guy a pro met tag 

[TSSN+]

Just now, midatlanticweather said:

Gfs was on its own from the start. Faith in models 5+ days seems a fool's chase. I am guessing we will be fooled again soon. I am not mad at the models, I am mad for believing they may be correct. 

The euro doesn’t exist?

[SnowenOutThere]

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Gonna be a bit north, but lets see

Its an odd run as several things go better for us. 1. The shortwave out ahead of it is further northeast which should help it amplify (unless for some reason this is too much spacing so it stays positively tilted?). T2. he wave spacing behind it also appears a bit better with more separation too. However, the reason it fails seems to be a difference around the hour 60-80 mark where there isnt quite the same level of vorticity maximum on the southern side of the lobe as it dives south so the trough doesn't quite consolidate and remains spread out. 18z on top and 12z on bottom.

Can really see how this messes up the storm as it progresses east to our area where its all one big vort instead of being a southern maximum. Unfortunately, by remaining broader it also ruins our ability to go negative as quickly which really hurts us even more. 

12z once again shows that difference with the additional southern closed isobar helping it tilt neg more. 

Hopefully this changes back but as a reminder this happens earlier in the run so we will need to watch for improvement here soonish to keep the chances of a good storm up. 

[Ji]

Just now, midatlanticweather said:

Gfs was on its own from the start. Faith in models 5+ days seems a fool's chase. I am guessing we will be fooled again soon. I am not mad at the models, I am mad for believing they may be correct. 

nobody believed the GFS. We were hoping for a miracle that it was seeing something the other models were not

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

well surprisingly the southern stream bullied its way to us and we get snow. Sounds like we are punting 2 more weeks to this HECS

I’ve moved onto Jan 24 - just one more punt. This was always the real window 

[midatlanticweather]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

The euro doesn’t exist?

Lol.. It was not in board. It showed mild support, but was never super sold on the idea. But the euro has let us down a lot this year too.. I would be drought free and in a surplus if we got the rain it has shown. 

[Ji]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I’ve moved onto Jan 24 - just one more punt. This was always the real window 

sounds like the only window this season where models are showing real cold air combined with a real southern stream. my bar is set at 39 inches

[SnowenOutThere]

With my analytical post I don't think its time to cliff jump yet; this storm is just way too complicated to know if that change is real or imagined. However, if we continue to see the GFS (and Euro moves to it) fail to consolidate around a southern vort max by tomorrow at 12zish or absolute latest tomorrow 0z I think then it is time to call it. 

[TSSN+]

“Cape” storm is capped 

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

“Cape” storm is capped 

Something told me it may be trouble when the Euro and Cmc wanted nothing to do with it

[Chris78]

Not a good run so far lol.

 0 for 2

[TSSN+]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Something told me it may be trouble when the Euro and GFS wanted nothing to do with it

You mean cmc? Gfs was the only one with it. 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

sounds like the only window this season where models are showing real cold air combined with a real southern stream. my bar is set at 39 inches

3.9 is more likely.  We suck you know it and I know it. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

You mean cmc? Gfs was the only one with it. 

Yes CMC