January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Stormchaserchuck1]

21 minutes ago, bncho said:

0z Euro h5 looks very similar to 0z GFS

Geez -- do we have to worry about more rain??

[mitchnick]

Euro completely lost threat 2. Crazy

[wxmeddler]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

Is there any way out of this moisture issue? The last few GFS runs were showing decent QPF numbers around 1+".

Sure, you could have the low stack stall out just off the coast producing a longer duration storm. In my mind, we would need that southern stream s/w to not eject or get so strung out that it gets folded into the oncoming impulse from the dakota's but I'm not holding my breath on that.

But... This is a triple phase setup, so things usually get messy.

[Ji]

Euro completely lost threat 2. Crazy

I though that would be the easy one lol

[bncho]

13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

End of EURO is 1-2’+. You’re gonna love the maps when they drop 

It's the ultimate overrunning system.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

I though that would be the easy one lol

Storm 1 coming back to life probably screwed it up, so we really do need 1 to work.

[Ji]

Anyone see a ghost

[NorthArlington101]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

It's the ultimate overrunning system.

@Ji

 
 

Another 1-2’ still to come honestly as depicted 

[bncho]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

@Ji

The end of the Euro is a storm that would've likely dropped 2-3+ feet of snow had the storm completed.

[mitchnick]

Reminds me of PDII. 

[Ji]

Reminds me of PDII. 

That is a 3-4 feet storm

[Ji]

Might be the craziest run we’ve ever seen in modeling history

[bncho]

nice 0z suite. we figured out that there'll be moisture issues with january 15th, but at least the h5s were better. 0z euro was the man of the match tonight, stole the show. gave us the most improvement for the first system, and then ends off with by far the biggest snowstorm in recorded history, probably beating the washington-jefferson snowstorm that dropped 3ft unofficially. Of course that's not enough to satisfy Ji, but otherwise that would be amazing. Good night, see y'all at 6z!

[Amped]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

@Ji

 
 

Another 1-2’ still to come honestly as depicted 

Yeah stall the entire geopotential gradient just south of us with a 2000 mile long high to the north. Works for me.

[NorthArlington101]

More realistic - EPS mean is better tonight. Goodnight!

[Ji]

Yeah stall the entire geopotential gradient just south of us with a 2000 mile long high to the north. Works for me.

That storm is pd2 combining with pd1

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

More realistic - EPS mean is better tonight. Goodnight!

First 10 days. Must be some hits from threat 2 in here.

[Ji]

If that Jan 25 storm happened as depicted …I literally would

I don’t know what id do

[bncho]

Just now, Ji said:

If that Jan 25 storm happened as depicted …I literally would

I don’t know what id do

stop posting on this forum. hooray!

[Amped]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

That storm is pd2 combining with pd1

Nah pd2 combined with feb 2010. PD 1 was a sharper trough and less gulf inflow.

[Maestrobjwa]

21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Storm 1 coming back to life probably screwed it up, so we really do need 1 to work.

Shoot...since storm 1 seems to have limited moisture potential, if it can't get us at least a modest 3-6", I'd rather that fizzle to leave room for storm 2, tbh

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Some signs of a 50/50 low getting organized on the 384hr GEFS

[JenkinsJinkies]

25 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

First 10 days. Must be some hits from threat 2 in here.

If it verifies then the futility thread will go dormant.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6z NAM at 84hr is much flatter than the 0z GFS at 90hr

[Weather Will]

The ICON at 6Z is also weaker, further north, no storm.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS is moving North as well....

[dailylurker]

What was that lol. Some weird runs overnight. 

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

What was that lol. Some weird runs overnight. 

Not sure what to make of this, except it doesn’t want to snow here on this run

[GreyHat]

4 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

@Ji

 
 

Another 1-2’ still to come honestly as depicted 

Posting of fantasy storm thats so far out. Current systems being tracked can't make it within 3 days.

The current system wasn't model to hit the area around the 16th and seems to be holding.  Which is good for me as I'm driving to the farm by Eagles Mere PA.

[GreyHat]

38 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Not sure what to make of this, except it doesn’t want to snow here on this run

I agree "it doesn't want to snow here". It's one of those years. We had a nice snow pack by Eagles Mere PA but now with the warmth and rain. It's pretty much all gone. They have some snow showers and mix precipitation in the forecast for next week.