January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Wasn't there a time when the GFS handled northern stream better?

Yes. Although not even sure that is a thing anymore. For me it is the fact that the other models are coming around to it's solution from 24 hours ago. 

[bncho]

The GFS is running. Hopefully Randy didn't forget about it and can stop by for PBP, but if not, TSSN's PBP was great last time 'round so I vote him if Randy is absent.

[Eskimo Joe]

There is no way you whiff with a 500 vort pass like that on the Icon. I call BS.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z GFS.  No changes through HR. 48.

[87storms]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

There is no way you whiff with a 500 vort pass like that on the Icon. I call BS.

The primary theme seems to be that things get going too late due to the trough being too far east.

[SnowenOutThere]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z GFS.  No changes through HR. 48.

Or hour 69

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z GFS.  No changes through HR. 48.

I’d sure hope not 

[bncho]

Why are we comparing the GFS runs at hour 48. There won't be a difference really until hour 90ish

[wxmeddler]

The s/w coming through the Dakotas is slightly deeper, good sign

[Ji]

Why are we comparing the GFS runs at hour 48. There won't be a difference really until hour 90ish

Every hour is important bro. Everything connects

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

The s/w coming through the Dakotas is slightly deeper, good sign

Yup so far that piece is closer to the 12z solution. 

[Ji]

Btw we are in Nam range now at 84 hours

[Solution Man]

Take us home @TSSN, gonna be good

[TSSN+]

Just now, Ji said:

Btw we are in Nam range now at 84 hours

So worthless range. Got it 

[NorthArlington101]

Would be pretty shocked if this GFS is a whiff. Said that about the ICON, though. 

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

The s/w coming through the Dakotas is slightly deeper, good sign

The height lines seemed backed a smidge further west with more vorticity in the main lobe angled west. Additionally, the ribbon of vorticity running out ahead of the lobe (paving its path) seems to be a bit more intense and catching the southern energy better. So far I am hopeful.

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

The s/w coming through the Dakotas is slightly deeper, good sign

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Would be pretty shocked if this GFS is a whiff. Said that about the ICON, though. 

I mean the top is 0z and bottom is 18z. I find it hard to see this miss, just look at that lobe digging south. 

[TSSN+]

So far so good. 
 

 

[bncho]

GFS looking better than 18z, which was already a good run

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[TSSN+]

Come to papa 

 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

H5 pass will definitely be far to our south which is what @Terpeast has been hammering home as our ticket. 

[NorthArlington101]

[Scraff]

We are about to get clocked…

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Neg tilt by hour 105

[bncho]

It's going to be good, guys.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Ironically I'm slightly concerned this may be too far west with a low over central NC

[Eskimo Joe]

I'm at HR 108 and the presentation at 500 mb looks good to my eye. Passing through western Tennessee and starting to go neutral.

[Solution Man]

Just now, bncho said:

It's going to be good, guys.

I said that 30 minutes ago