January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[stormtracker]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Not like it’s too much different few tweaks 

It gets better

[bncho]

Storm formed.

[bncho]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Tbh there is so much interaction going on upstairs that I think the only thing we can look for is the setup staying relatively the same (and other models moving towards GFS) and then seeing which way it might actually go within 48 hours of the event as everything is in motion. 

we would definitely need the CAMs to figure that out for us.

[Ji]

The offruns…they’re more for entertainment. The 00z runs and 12z runs are always more telling.

[Solution Man]

It will be acceptable 

[stormtracker]

It's a SECS so far.  Still going at 132

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

It gets better

Ya I see. It’s fine it’s just not the 12z look. Just don’t want it to keep trending towards that north move need to hold or dig more. 

[NorthArlington101]

6”+ for most of us still here 

[baltosquid]

In the grand scheme of things this really looks like a "noise" run. Obviously the delicacy of the setup means big changes to snow totals but the things getting messed up compared to 12z are things that are probably on a scale much too fine to worry about right now. It is still very close.

[midatlanticweather]

Rare do we get perfect storm formations on our doorstep. It can happen and I think we will watch but the pessimist in me says we have to get it to the south

[stormtracker]

Closing in on a MECS for DC S and E.  Just a weird evolution 

[bncho]

DC still 12+"!

[Ji]

Storm formed.

Miller b ptsd

[Scraff]

I’m not hating it, but what do I know. I should just stick to my beer knowledge. 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Storm formed.

I mean its hard to go completely wrong if you're managing to phase the NS and southern stream in mid January right off the east coast. Really think we just need to keep seeing the phasing happen.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Storm formed.

Having snow with a storm that’s basically over the Chesapeake is a rare thing. It’s mostly because it’s capturing the surface low and deepening right on top of us. 

[baltosquid]

Storm just gets stuck right over the bay lol. Dumping.

[Ji]

Rare do we get perfect storm formations on our doorstep. It can happen and I think we will watch but the pessimist in me says we have to get it to the south

Yea no cushion. We need a big dig

[NorthArlington101]

still a bit more… 

[stormtracker]

I mean, I'll take it but...maybe GFS going toward the Euro...I dunno man.   Not much else to take one way or the other.  Just not a fan of how we got here

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I mean, I'll take it but...maybe GFS going toward the Euro...I dunno man.   Not much else to take one way or the other

Maybe, but IMO it's just noise

[Terpeast]

That 500mb vort still passes over us or just to the south. Thats the thing we need to hold. If it passes north of us, we’re out. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I mean, I'll take it but...maybe GFS going toward the Euro...I dunno man.   Not much else to take one way or the other

Or meeting in the middle. Euro still needs to trend more to the gfs too. I’d be fine with this solution. 

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Yea no cushion. We need a big dig

It’s got to dig and explode on top of us basically. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

So still a SECS. No scoffing at this. Isn't high-end MECS but we got time and i will never turn my nose up to SECS....ever.

[stormtracker]

Just now, bncho said:

Maybe, but IMO it's just noise

Well yeah, most sane people know not to jump one way or the other based on anything this far out.   We'll see if you're right in the next run.  

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

still a bit more… 

Heres a pretty map

[winter_warlock]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I mean, I'll take it but...maybe GFS going toward the Euro...I dunno man.   Not much else to take one way or the other.  Just not a fan of how we got here

Yeah I mean I like what it dumps  IMBY but does look real ODD .  The fact it just sits over the bay is weird lol 

[baltosquid]

That would be an insane storm as depicted. VERY windy.

[TSSN+]

What I haven’t seen a a while is a rain to snow storm. Would be interesting. I remember one of these back when I was in middle school like 20 plus years ago lol. Was raining at school then turned to a 6” snow storm.