January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[TSSN+]

The op was nice for the 18-19 but of course the Gefs decreases overall qpf in that time period. Go figure. 

[baltosquid]

Maybe I missed it but I did not see any AIGFS discussion for the 15th. Looked better at h5 I think? Trough seems stronger and tilts more negatively a smidge earlier, but still a bit too late.

[Weather Will]

8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Thanks Weather Will.i.am. Where is the love? 

I like the next weekend potential better.... WB 12Z GEFS for next weekend.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

Maybe I missed it but I did not see any AIGFS discussion for the 15th. Looked better at h5 I think? Trough seems stronger and tilts more negatively a smidge earlier, but still a bit too late.

Ukmet is over Bermuda. Is that good? 

[Heisy]

Maybe I missed it but I did not see any AIGFS discussion for the 15th. Looked better at h5 I think? Trough seems stronger and tilts more negatively a smidge earlier, but still a bit too late.

12z ai is a miss for the first threat. 19th threat it has this general look which is woof worthy. Ends up being an interior event but at this range idc, that’s really close to being ideal. One threat a time though, fun/stressful times ahead ha




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[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

12z ai is a miss for the first threat. 19th threat it has this general look which is woof worthy. Ends up being an interior event but at this range idc, that’s really close to being ideal. One threat a time though, fun/stressful times ahead ha




.

Get rid of that stupid lakes low. 
 

[Kay]

43 minutes ago, bncho said:

-EPO/+TNH is a highly volatile pattern where even a slight difference can lead to the difference between a raging SE ridge and Jan 2014 cold. IMO the pattern looks like Jan 2014 at this juncture, don't think we'll get a big dog but multiple 2-4", 3-6" events are on the table, maybe even a 6-10" event.

OK, I'll be the arsehole...bncho, is this all you and zero AI? You are obviously super bright and a quick learner, either way. And a good sport, so I hope you'll forgive my asking.

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Kay said:

OK, I'll be the arsehole...bncho, is this all you and zero AI? You are obviously super bright and a quick learner, either way. And a good sport, so I hope you'll forgive my asking.

It's all me, no AI. I'm a dumbass but I've been here for over a year so I should be learning something lol

[Kay]

Just now, bncho said:

It's all me, no AI. I'm a dumbass but I've been here for over a year so I should be learning something lol

Thank you. You seriously are as much a good sport as you are smart.

[bncho]

Just now, Kay said:

Thank you. You seriously are as much a good sport as you are smart.

I want to say I saw this in an Eric Webb X post that he did a week-ish ago. He mentioned 2014 and -EPO/+TNH and how it's a pattern that's hard to predict, probably excavated it from the back of my mind.

[stormtracker]

Euro looking interesting for the Cape Time storm

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Euro looking interesting for the Cape Time storm

You already past the 15th/16th? Thought h5 looked a bit interesting but wasn't gonna venture a public guess of what the surface looked like

just got to it - no dice

[stormtracker]

Doing the skipping panels thing again, lol.    Something's about to happen..but its kinda warm.

EDIT.  yeah, it's warm...

[stormtracker]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

You already past the 15th/16th? Thought h5 looked a bit interesting but wasn't gonna venture a public guess of what the surface looked like

it's rain, lol

[stormtracker]

Rides right along and inside the coast.  Rain all up the east coast 

[dailylurker]

Well. We need rain lol

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

it's rain, lol

In true Dr. No fashion.

[mappy]

29 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well yeah, I forgot what times we are in.   I'll text you around Wed if we're still looking.

Thanks boo

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Rides right along and inside the coast.  Rain all up the east coast 

So what you are saying is that there is a storm during this timeframe?

[Kay]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

I want to say I saw this in an Eric Webb X post that he did a week-ish ago. He mentioned 2014 and -EPO/+TNH and how it's a pattern that's hard to predict, probably excavated it from the back of my mind.

Makes sense.

[stormtracker]

Just now, aldie 22 said:

So what you are saying is that there is a storm during this timeframe?

You get it.

That should be the main takeaway. 

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Wow congrats Carolinas. Their snow drought has been worse than ours of late.

That's like saying the Atacama is in a drought. 

[adelphi_sky]

17 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Get rid of that stupid lakes low. 
 

That Gulf moisture fetch is a beaut Clark!

[NorthArlington101]

EURO does spit out a little snow for the 15th/16th, but not for most of us. 

[Heisy]

I know it cuts this run, but the PNA is doing its work for us. Both these waves have ton of potential. It would be nice to get a little lucky for once.




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[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EURO does spit out a little snow for the 15th/16th, but not for most of us. 

Still just can't tilt how we need it to under the big ol' PV. Needs more room or more helpful interplay. Still think it can get there.

[Ji]

Just now, Heisy said:

I know it cuts this run, but the PNA is doing its work for us. Both these waves have ton of potential. It would be nice to get a little lucky for once.




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where did the first storm go....i was hoping it would be a nice 50 50 low

[SnowenOutThere]

15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

You already past the 15th/16th? Thought h5 looked a bit interesting but wasn't gonna venture a public guess of what the surface looked like

just got to it - no dice

Would get some insane upslope worth a trip out to WV

[Heisy]

where did the first storm go....i was hoping it would be a nice 50 50 low

Probably the euro just overamping things at this range/it took too long to get its act together so we lose all the confluence by time it’s turning corner. All 3 OP models and their ensembles have something for this time frame so at least it’s track worthy.


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[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Would get some insane upslope worth a trip out to WV

With it being a three-day weekend I've 100% got my eye on a chase if needed. Would rather stay put, ofc