TSSN+ Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago The op was nice for the 18-19 but of course the Gefs decreases overall qpf in that time period. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Maybe I missed it but I did not see any AIGFS discussion for the 15th. Looked better at h5 I think? Trough seems stronger and tilts more negatively a smidge earlier, but still a bit too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Thanks Weather Will.i.am. Where is the love? I like the next weekend potential better.... WB 12Z GEFS for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 1 minute ago, baltosquid said: Maybe I missed it but I did not see any AIGFS discussion for the 15th. Looked better at h5 I think? Trough seems stronger and tilts more negatively a smidge earlier, but still a bit too late. Ukmet is over Bermuda. Is that good? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Maybe I missed it but I did not see any AIGFS discussion for the 15th. Looked better at h5 I think? Trough seems stronger and tilts more negatively a smidge earlier, but still a bit too late.12z ai is a miss for the first threat. 19th threat it has this general look which is woof worthy. Ends up being an interior event but at this range idc, that’s really close to being ideal. One threat a time though, fun/stressful times ahead ha . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: 12z ai is a miss for the first threat. 19th threat it has this general look which is woof worthy. Ends up being an interior event but at this range idc, that’s really close to being ideal. One threat a time though, fun/stressful times ahead ha . Get rid of that stupid lakes low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 43 minutes ago, bncho said: -EPO/+TNH is a highly volatile pattern where even a slight difference can lead to the difference between a raging SE ridge and Jan 2014 cold. IMO the pattern looks like Jan 2014 at this juncture, don't think we'll get a big dog but multiple 2-4", 3-6" events are on the table, maybe even a 6-10" event. OK, I'll be the arsehole...bncho, is this all you and zero AI? You are obviously super bright and a quick learner, either way. And a good sport, so I hope you'll forgive my asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 1 minute ago, Kay said: OK, I'll be the arsehole...bncho, is this all you and zero AI? You are obviously super bright and a quick learner, either way. And a good sport, so I hope you'll forgive my asking. It's all me, no AI. I'm a dumbass but I've been here for over a year so I should be learning something lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Just now, bncho said: It's all me, no AI. I'm a dumbass but I've been here for over a year so I should be learning something lol Thank you. You seriously are as much a good sport as you are smart. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Just now, Kay said: Thank you. You seriously are as much a good sport as you are smart. I want to say I saw this in an Eric Webb X post that he did a week-ish ago. He mentioned 2014 and -EPO/+TNH and how it's a pattern that's hard to predict, probably excavated it from the back of my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Euro looking interesting for the Cape Time storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Euro looking interesting for the Cape Time storm You already past the 15th/16th? Thought h5 looked a bit interesting but wasn't gonna venture a public guess of what the surface looked like just got to it - no dice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Doing the skipping panels thing again, lol. Something's about to happen..but its kinda warm. EDIT. yeah, it's warm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Just now, NorthArlington101 said: You already past the 15th/16th? Thought h5 looked a bit interesting but wasn't gonna venture a public guess of what the surface looked like it's rain, lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Rides right along and inside the coast. Rain all up the east coast 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Well. We need rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: it's rain, lol In true Dr. No fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 29 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well yeah, I forgot what times we are in. I'll text you around Wed if we're still looking. Thanks boo 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Rides right along and inside the coast. Rain all up the east coast So what you are saying is that there is a storm during this timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 4 minutes ago, bncho said: I want to say I saw this in an Eric Webb X post that he did a week-ish ago. He mentioned 2014 and -EPO/+TNH and how it's a pattern that's hard to predict, probably excavated it from the back of my mind. Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Just now, aldie 22 said: So what you are saying is that there is a storm during this timeframe? You get it. That should be the main takeaway. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Wow congrats Carolinas. Their snow drought has been worse than ours of late. That's like saying the Atacama is in a drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 17 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Get rid of that stupid lakes low. That Gulf moisture fetch is a beaut Clark! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago EURO does spit out a little snow for the 15th/16th, but not for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago I know it cuts this run, but the PNA is doing its work for us. Both these waves have ton of potential. It would be nice to get a little lucky for once. . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: EURO does spit out a little snow for the 15th/16th, but not for most of us. Still just can't tilt how we need it to under the big ol' PV. Needs more room or more helpful interplay. Still think it can get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Just now, Heisy said: I know it cuts this run, but the PNA is doing its work for us. Both these waves have ton of potential. It would be nice to get a little lucky for once. . where did the first storm go....i was hoping it would be a nice 50 50 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: You already past the 15th/16th? Thought h5 looked a bit interesting but wasn't gonna venture a public guess of what the surface looked like just got to it - no dice Would get some insane upslope worth a trip out to WV 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago where did the first storm go....i was hoping it would be a nice 50 50 lowProbably the euro just overamping things at this range/it took too long to get its act together so we lose all the confluence by time it’s turning corner. All 3 OP models and their ensembles have something for this time frame so at least it’s track worthy. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Would get some insane upslope worth a trip out to WV With it being a three-day weekend I've 100% got my eye on a chase if needed. Would rather stay put, ofc 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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