January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Blizzard of 93]

Speaking of week 3 on the latest Euro Weeklies…

Today’s run for week 3 shows a decent general look, below normal temperatures & a good amount of precip.

[mitchnick]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Weeklies have generally proved to be about worthless, especially beyond week 3. Heck, we keep seeing changes for week 2. 

No real argument from me on their accuracy, but that doesn’t change the fact that they keep trending warmer instead of colder as they did earlier in the fall and early winter. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Speaking of week 3 on the latest Euro Weeklies…

Today’s run for week 3 shows a decent general look, below normal temperatures & a good amount of precip.

That is the coolest of the forecast weeks off the Euro site, but still apparently in the normal category for temps and precip.

[Blizzard of 93]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

No real argument from me on their accuracy, but that doesn’t change the fact that they keep trending warmer instead of colder as they did earlier in the fall and early winter. 

This season has especially proven to not be too concerned beyond week 2 or 3, and even then, changes have been happening in day 7 to 10.

Just yesterday the punters were out until after mid January, but now we might be getting back into business in 10 days or so.

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Speaking of week 3 on the latest Euro Weeklies…

Today’s run for week 3 shows a decent general look, below normal temperatures & a good amount of precip.

I still don't trust WB maps. Here's the temp forecast off the Euro site. Cold is way overdone on WB.

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

2 out of 3 ain’t bad…

Also, @CAPE posted a good look on the GEFS a little earlier for around the 12th.

Beyond mid month the GEFS depicts the EPO ridge taking a positive tilt orientation causing the downstream trough to dig a bit more out west. Not an awful look verbatim as the NA is still favorable. Bottom line is I just cant care much about what any model depicts 15+ days from now.

[Ji]

I still don't trust WB maps. Here's the temp forecast off the Euro site. Cold is way overdone on WB.

I don’t trust your maps

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

I don’t trust your maps

I don't care. They're not my maps. I would use different colors.

[CAPE]

Personally I don't pay much attention to surface temps in the long range as long as h5 looks favorable. Distilling the LR takes a bit of skill. 

[Maestrobjwa]

To my novice eyes...the warmup doesn't seem to want to stick around too long on the modeling. Doesn't feel as hopelessly stuck as other years. We shall see...

[Paleocene]

My tldr: it's been cold so far this winter. That hasn't been true the past upteen winters. Therefore, it will snow.

 

 

 

 

Ps: i am unhinged from a two week work free, modeling chasing, unhinged gin fueled NYD binge, we're bringing this Nina home with a KU event or I'm going to lose it, mood.

[Ji]

i hope the GFS chatgpt is better than the GFS

[mitchnick]

45 minutes ago, Ji said:

i hope the GFS chatgpt is better than the GFS

Sure about that? Because this is what it has headed for us 5-6 days later. Lol

[cbmclean]

45 minutes ago, Ji said:

i hope the GFS chatgpt is better than the GFS

I'm philosophically opposed to parsing operational at D10+ but I am curious; I would describe this as a +PNA but also a +EPO: there's still a huge area of low heights in AK.  Would that be accurate? 

[Ji]

Sure about that? Because this is what it has headed for us 5-6 days later. Lol

Will this satisfy
you?

[Ji]

I'm philosophically opposed to parsing operational at D10+ but I am curious; I would describe this as a +PNA but also a +EPO: there's still a huge area of low heights in AK.  Would that be accurate? 

Yea the epo isn’t scheduled to go negative to mid month which is after that screen shot

[winter_warlock]

6 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Speaking of week 3 on the latest Euro Weeklies…

Today’s run for week 3 shows a decent general look, below normal temperatures & a good amount of precip.

 Looks like a very nice set up for a lot of us... We will see!!

[JenkinsJinkies]

How long until the cliff jumpers lose their minds over a warmup that'll be over in less than a week?

[Steve25]

1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

How long until the cliff jumpers lose their minds over a warmup that'll be over in less than a week?

I think until we get a decent snow event that comes to fruition there will be cliff jumpers any time there’s even the most slight projected warmup 

[Ji]

Pretty good trends tonight for a short lived thaw…looks like we are back as soon as the 11th to 12th

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Pretty good trends tonight for a short lived thaw…looks like we are back as soon as the 11th to 12th

Amen brother!!!

[winter_warlock]

3 hours ago, Steve25 said:

I think until we get a decent snow event that comes to fruition there will be cliff jumpers any time there’s even the most slight projected warmup 

Yep and winter will be cancelled at least a few times lol

[winter_warlock]

4 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

How long until the cliff jumpers lose their minds over a warmup that'll be over in less than a week?

 Lol we have cliff jumpers and winter cancellers after a 2 day warm up 

[WxUSAF]

EPS-AI remains by far the best looking in the D10-15 range for pattern. EPS is good, but not as good. GEFS and GEPS have turned the good pattern into a cold front passage and then dump the trough right back out west and pump the SE ridge.  They all have the EPO ridge develop but the precise ridge axis and the strength of any NAO ridging is really important to our sensible outcome

[CAPE]

53 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

EPS-AI remains by far the best looking in the D10-15 range for pattern. EPS is good, but not as good. GEFS and GEPS have turned the good pattern into a cold front passage and then dump the trough right back out west and pump the SE ridge.  They all have the EPO ridge develop but the precise ridge axis and the strength of any NAO ridging is really important to our sensible outcome

The GEPS is actually colder than the GEFS-almost all of the country has below avg temps after the 12th verbatim, but coldest out west and more like slightly below in the east. It is advertising a stronger -NAO, which seems to be the primary difference between it and the GEFS and why its colder, but also ends up with a more amped EPO ridge so probably a bit more cross Polar flow.

[CAPE]

We can definitely snow with this look. EPO ridge amps even more beyond this.

GEFS is not bad in this window either but the SER is not quite as suppressed.

 

[WxUSAF]

15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The GEPS is actually colder than the GEFS-almost all of the country has below avg temps after the 12th verbatim, but coldest out west and more like slightly below in the east. It is advertising a stronger -NAO, which seems to be the primary difference between it and the GEFS and why its colder, but also ends up with a more amped EPO ridge so probably a bit more cross Polar flow.

GEPS always looks dubiously cold at the surface. I think it’s a model bias.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

GEPS always looks dubiously cold at the surface. I think it’s a model bias.

True but it does have a more impressive -NAO and suppresses the SER more than the GEFS.

[Ji]

Bam bam is in panic mode citing the pV now is on the wrong side

[aldie 22]

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

Bam bam is in panic mode citing the pV now is on the wrong side

You sure it's not you in panic mode? You are the second best person on this planet at projection