Blizzard of 93 Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago Speaking of week 3 on the latest Euro Weeklies… Today’s run for week 3 shows a decent general look, below normal temperatures & a good amount of precip. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Weeklies have generally proved to be about worthless, especially beyond week 3. Heck, we keep seeing changes for week 2. No real argument from me on their accuracy, but that doesn’t change the fact that they keep trending warmer instead of colder as they did earlier in the fall and early winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Speaking of week 3 on the latest Euro Weeklies… Today’s run for week 3 shows a decent general look, below normal temperatures & a good amount of precip. That is the coolest of the forecast weeks off the Euro site, but still apparently in the normal category for temps and precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: No real argument from me on their accuracy, but that doesn’t change the fact that they keep trending warmer instead of colder as they did earlier in the fall and early winter. This season has especially proven to not be too concerned beyond week 2 or 3, and even then, changes have been happening in day 7 to 10. Just yesterday the punters were out until after mid January, but now we might be getting back into business in 10 days or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Speaking of week 3 on the latest Euro Weeklies… Today’s run for week 3 shows a decent general look, below normal temperatures & a good amount of precip. I still don't trust WB maps. Here's the temp forecast off the Euro site. Cold is way overdone on WB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 2 out of 3 ain’t bad… Also, @CAPE posted a good look on the GEFS a little earlier for around the 12th. Beyond mid month the GEFS depicts the EPO ridge taking a positive tilt orientation causing the downstream trough to dig a bit more out west. Not an awful look verbatim as the NA is still favorable. Bottom line is I just cant care much about what any model depicts 15+ days from now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago I still don't trust WB maps. Here's the temp forecast off the Euro site. Cold is way overdone on WB.I don’t trust your maps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 11 minutes ago, Ji said: I don’t trust your maps I don't care. They're not my maps. I would use different colors. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago Personally I don't pay much attention to surface temps in the long range as long as h5 looks favorable. Distilling the LR takes a bit of skill. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago To my novice eyes...the warmup doesn't seem to want to stick around too long on the modeling. Doesn't feel as hopelessly stuck as other years. We shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago My tldr: it's been cold so far this winter. That hasn't been true the past upteen winters. Therefore, it will snow. Ps: i am unhinged from a two week work free, modeling chasing, unhinged gin fueled NYD binge, we're bringing this Nina home with a KU event or I'm going to lose it, mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago i hope the GFS chatgpt is better than the GFS 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 45 minutes ago, Ji said: i hope the GFS chatgpt is better than the GFS Sure about that? Because this is what it has headed for us 5-6 days later. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 45 minutes ago, Ji said: i hope the GFS chatgpt is better than the GFS I'm philosophically opposed to parsing operational at D10+ but I am curious; I would describe this as a +PNA but also a +EPO: there's still a huge area of low heights in AK. Would that be accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Sure about that? Because this is what it has headed for us 5-6 days later. LolWill this satisfy you? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago I'm philosophically opposed to parsing operational at D10+ but I am curious; I would describe this as a +PNA but also a +EPO: there's still a huge area of low heights in AK. Would that be accurate? Yea the epo isn’t scheduled to go negative to mid month which is after that screen shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 6 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Speaking of week 3 on the latest Euro Weeklies… Today’s run for week 3 shows a decent general look, below normal temperatures & a good amount of precip. Looks like a very nice set up for a lot of us... We will see!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago How long until the cliff jumpers lose their minds over a warmup that'll be over in less than a week? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said: How long until the cliff jumpers lose their minds over a warmup that'll be over in less than a week? I think until we get a decent snow event that comes to fruition there will be cliff jumpers any time there’s even the most slight projected warmup 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Pretty good trends tonight for a short lived thaw…looks like we are back as soon as the 11th to 12th 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 hour ago, Ji said: Pretty good trends tonight for a short lived thaw…looks like we are back as soon as the 11th to 12th Amen brother!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 3 hours ago, Steve25 said: I think until we get a decent snow event that comes to fruition there will be cliff jumpers any time there’s even the most slight projected warmup Yep and winter will be cancelled at least a few times lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 4 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said: How long until the cliff jumpers lose their minds over a warmup that'll be over in less than a week? Lol we have cliff jumpers and winter cancellers after a 2 day warm up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago EPS-AI remains by far the best looking in the D10-15 range for pattern. EPS is good, but not as good. GEFS and GEPS have turned the good pattern into a cold front passage and then dump the trough right back out west and pump the SE ridge. They all have the EPO ridge develop but the precise ridge axis and the strength of any NAO ridging is really important to our sensible outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 53 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: EPS-AI remains by far the best looking in the D10-15 range for pattern. EPS is good, but not as good. GEFS and GEPS have turned the good pattern into a cold front passage and then dump the trough right back out west and pump the SE ridge. They all have the EPO ridge develop but the precise ridge axis and the strength of any NAO ridging is really important to our sensible outcome The GEPS is actually colder than the GEFS-almost all of the country has below avg temps after the 12th verbatim, but coldest out west and more like slightly below in the east. It is advertising a stronger -NAO, which seems to be the primary difference between it and the GEFS and why its colder, but also ends up with a more amped EPO ridge so probably a bit more cross Polar flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago We can definitely snow with this look. EPO ridge amps even more beyond this. GEFS is not bad in this window either but the SER is not quite as suppressed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 15 minutes ago, CAPE said: The GEPS is actually colder than the GEFS-almost all of the country has below avg temps after the 12th verbatim, but coldest out west and more like slightly below in the east. It is advertising a stronger -NAO, which seems to be the primary difference between it and the GEFS and why its colder, but also ends up with a more amped EPO ridge so probably a bit more cross Polar flow. GEPS always looks dubiously cold at the surface. I think it’s a model bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: GEPS always looks dubiously cold at the surface. I think it’s a model bias. True but it does have a more impressive -NAO and suppresses the SER more than the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Bam bam is in panic mode citing the pV now is on the wrong side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 16 minutes ago, Ji said: Bam bam is in panic mode citing the pV now is on the wrong side You sure it's not you in panic mode? You are the second best person on this planet at projection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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