January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Terpeast]

21 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I’m mean… 

 

Yeah that’s a big jump

[Maestrobjwa]

15 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah that’s a big jump

That piece of energy has been there across the modeling...but it's always just passed by to the south so I barely noticed it. That there was the first time any model brought it further north.

[TSSN+]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

That piece of energy has been there on the modeling...but it's always just passed by to the south so I barely noticed it. That there was the first time any model brought it further north.

H5 has more phasing 

[Ji]

Yeah that’s a big jump

We know how this ends. It will inch north and then one run will take it 100 miles south again

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

We know how this ends. It will inch north and then one run will take it 100 miles south again

Bob Chill special?

[Ji]

Bob Chill special?

Sure…if he likes rain

[TSSN+]

The Nam looks very north at the end of the run 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

The Nam looks very north at the end of the run 

 

ICON a little further north as well.

[Ji]

Tomer burg is somewhat interested in Sunday

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

Tomer burg is somewhat interested in Sunday

Hugging the Euro

[CAPE]

0z GFS is a tad further north but not Euro-like for the 4th

[T. August]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

0z GFS is a tad further north but not Euro-like for the 4th

Looking at upper levels (and I could be wrong here) I don’t see why it wouldn’t come even more north. The problem is with no cold press thermals would be an issue.

[Ji]

0z GFS is a tad further north but not Euro-like for the 4th

Cmc went way north though

[TSSN+]

21 minutes ago, CAPE said:

0z GFS is a tad further north but not Euro-like for the 4th

Gfs always slow to change look at that non event last week when the gfs was showing a big sleet storm till inside 36hrs. Model sucks 

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Cmc went way north though

850s are kind of shot though. Tricky balance for this one and we’re already playing behind. I’m cautiously unoptimistic (pessimistic?) but what else is there to do

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

850s are kind of shot though. Tricky balance for this one and we’re already playing behind. I’m cautiously unoptimistic but what else is there to do

Sleep lmao 

[Ji]

We are so back

[TSSN+]

Gfs slowly pushing the Jan 9/10 system back SE. 

[Ji]

Gfs slowly pushing the Jan 9/10 system back SE. 

The run to run changes are comical

[TSSN+]

Just now, Ji said:

The run to run changes are comical

Ya low went from Kansas to Ohio lol

[Ji]

Looks like a cutter parade

[mitchnick]

Just now, Ji said:

Looks like a cutter parade

It will never end thanks to the SE Ridge. And we're up to almost January 15th.

[Ji]

It will never end thanks to the SE Ridge. And we're up to almost January 15th.

By the time the se ridge is beat down…the country would be depleted of storms

[Ji]

Ridge in Greenland…Alaska and dc lol

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

By the time the se ridge is beat down…the country would be depleted of storms

They'll build back up...giving time for the SE Ridge to reform of course.

[mitchnick]

GfsAI has another light to moderate fantasy snow near the end of the run.

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

GfsAI has another light to moderate fantasy snow near the end of the run.

The GFS AI has an incredible cold bias lol. It's a weenie's dream model.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Ridge in Greenland…Alaska and dc lol

Wait...how? Lol

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

The GFS AI has an incredible cold bias lol. It's a weenie's dream model.

I know. Hence "fantasy" snow.