40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 5 minutes ago, Masswx said: Im liking these trends Get to school, junior 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: You went from congrats VA to this in a day? lol Yup. Gotta know when to fold em. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 6 minutes ago, jbenedet said: This is MJO phase 7. Just need surface temps to respond in kind. We stick a +NAO here and no stopping the mid level height build in the east. The EC AIFS also has the main show trending to the trailing shortwave which is also when our 1040 surface high is yielding… This could get a lot warmer. Nuts. So now it’s raining in SNE…is that what you’re saying?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said: From absolutely no chance due to confluence yesterday to amping and too warm today. Got it. I will get pounded for this, but I'll take the March 2001 risks as opposed to what was modeled...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Was I that bad? 1 2 1 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, WinterWolf said: So now it’s raining in SNE…is that what you’re saying?? I think it's more IP/dry slot risk, at least off of the cape...but we aren't quite there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 My forecast hinged on MJO 8 type synoptic look and the guidance has completely lost that in 36 hours and I’m seeing much more of a 7 synoptic look. The specific MJO guidance has also changed… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 That’s a nasty coastal front just north and west of verbatim. Coke streamers here, but someone on the other side of that will get buried. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: You went from congrats VA to this in a day? lol Things change. A more northern track does introduce the risk for sleet/mix, it’s very common for SE Mass/cape to mix in these setups. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 We can keep this south of Block Island and off the Cape. We don’t need this over the canal. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: All joking aside there’s gonna be good enhancement on the coast with such a frigid airmass in place. Yes, this is what I have been saying, which is why it's important to get ample mid level dynamics on the interior CP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Was I that bad? wdym Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3F here. New low temperature for my location. Previously it was 4F. I'm close to the Connecticut River so a bit warmer here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: So now it’s raining in SNE…is that what you’re saying?? No I’m watching through this morning. Need to see latest data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: My forecast hinged on MJO 8 type synoptic look and the guidance has completely lost that in 36 hours and I’m seeing much more of a 7 synoptic look. The specific MJO guidance has also changed… I'm always leery of predicating any forecast on phase 8 until at minuscule lead time....it's become a unicorn since the west Pacific warmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He has, but to TBH, it's a pretty different landscape from what his looked like 2 days ago. Yes it's different than two days ago, but I jumped on more energy phasing out west 36 hours ago.. I knew we all had a chance still 4 days out, might go well north like the pope says, stays where we are not, or ticks back south the next few days.. Odds are quite high for several inches areawide however.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He has, but to TBH, it's a pretty different landscape from what his looked like 2 days ago. I mentioned posted this yesterday to Paul/Wiz. He said it was pretty plausible, I was kind of shocked at that, but then again I’m not the MET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 7 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: From absolutely no chance due to confluence yesterday to amping and too warm today. Got it. I should have checked the MJO before whining about confluence....def my bad on that. I don't look deeply until I blog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm always leery of predicating any forecast oh phase 8 until at minuscule lead time. I get that. The proximity of the phases and guidance didn’t help here. 7 is one of our warmest in Jan, and the wave progression was 7 to 8 around go time. I bit on it bc the synoptic look across major guidance matched 8, but it’s all trended away from that quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I mentioned posted this yesterday to Paul/Wiz. He said it was pretty plausible, I was kind of shocked at that, but then again I’m not the MET. It's not impossible....phases are usually flawed and complicated...odds are that it will be imperfect, but probably not in that precise manner given the lead time left. That doesn't have to mean we get a blizzard, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Jeezum crow, low of -6F wasn’t expecting that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I get that. The proximity of the phases and guidance didn’t help here. 7 is one of our warmest in Jan, and the wave progression was 7 to 8 around go time. I bit on it bc the synoptic look across major guidance matched 8, but it’s all trended away from that quickly. I added this after: . (Phase 8) it's become a unicorn since the west Pacific warmed. This is why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 -4.2 this morning looking forward to this weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Yes it's different than two days ago, but I jumped on more energy phasing out west 36 hours ago.. I knew we all had a chance still 4 days out, might go well north like the pope says, stays where we are not, or ticks back south the next few days.. Odds are quite high for several inches areawide however.. Yes, good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It's not impossible....phases are usually flawed and complicated...odds are that it will be imperfect, but probably not in that precise manner given the lead time left. That doesn't have to mean we get a blizzard, though. My meaning to Paul was, at first this was just a huge overrunning event., then all of a sudden a phase was introduced, and a potential coastal was starting to emerge. Now that seems to be the idea for areas further east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That’s a nasty coastal front just north and west of verbatim. Coke streamers here, but someone on the other side of that will get buried. It's like the pre Xmas 2024 event, but stronger storm and better airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 We have more wiggle room in SNE for a significant event. As you can see, the highest odds for 6" are Baltimore to Boston, however the highest odds on EPS for 12" + is over DC more boom or bust there.. While we have a few different ways to get widespread 6-12"+ .. Theres going to be some amazing soundings coming out soon, and you know we will get Nam'd with a 15-30" run by tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 5 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Historical these people are not prepared for what is about to hit them We joke about stocking up on bread and milk but those folk probably should. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 MJO has actually really amped up of late. https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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