January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Masswx said:

Im liking these trends 

Get to school, junior

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

You went from congrats VA to this in a day? lol

Yup. 

Gotta know when to fold em. 
 

 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

This is MJO phase 7. Just need surface temps to respond in kind.
 

We stick a +NAO here and no stopping the mid level height build in the east.

The EC AIFS also has the main show trending to the trailing shortwave which is also when our 1040 surface high is yielding…

This could get a lot warmer.

 

Nuts.

So now it’s raining in SNE…is that what you’re saying??

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

From absolutely no chance due to confluence yesterday to amping and too warm today. Got it.

I will get pounded for this, but I'll take the March 2001 risks as opposed to what was modeled......

[CoastalWx]

Was I that bad?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

So now it’s raining in SNE…is that what you’re saying??

I think it's more IP/dry slot risk, at least off of the cape...but we aren't quite there yet.

[jbenedet]

My forecast hinged on MJO 8  type synoptic look and the guidance has completely lost that in 36 hours and I’m seeing much more of a 7 synoptic look.

The specific MJO guidance has also changed…

[CoastalWx]

That’s a nasty coastal front just north and west of verbatim. Coke streamers here, but someone on the other side of that will get buried.

[George001]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

You went from congrats VA to this in a day? lol

Things change. A more northern track does introduce the risk for sleet/mix, it’s very common for SE Mass/cape to mix in these setups.

[CoastalWx]

We can keep this south of Block Island and off the Cape. We don’t need this over the canal.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

All joking aside there’s gonna be good enhancement on the coast with such a frigid airmass in place. 

Yes, this is what I have been saying, which is why it's important to get ample mid level dynamics on the interior CP.

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Was I that bad?

wdym

[Sugarloaf1989]

3F here. New low temperature for my location.  Previously it was 4F. I'm close to the Connecticut River so a bit warmer here.

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

So now it’s raining in SNE…is that what you’re saying??

No I’m watching through this morning.

Need to see latest data.

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

My forecast hinged on MJO 8  type synoptic look and the guidance has completely lost that in 36 hours and I’m seeing much more of a 7 synoptic look.

The specific MJO guidance has also changed…

I'm always leery of predicating any forecast on phase 8 until at minuscule lead time....it's become a unicorn since the west Pacific warmed.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He has, but to TBH, it's a pretty different landscape from what his looked like 2 days ago.

Yes it's different than two days ago, but I jumped on more energy phasing out west 36 hours ago.. I knew we all had a chance still 4 days out, might go well north like the pope says, stays where we are not, or ticks back south the next few days.. Odds are quite high for several inches areawide however.. 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He has, but to TBH, it's a pretty different landscape from what his looked like 2 days ago.

I mentioned posted this yesterday to Paul/Wiz. He said it was pretty plausible, I was kind of shocked at that, but then again I’m not the MET. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

From absolutely no chance due to confluence yesterday to amping and too warm today. Got it.

I should have checked the MJO before whining about confluence....def my bad on that. I don't look deeply until I blog.

[jbenedet]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm always leery of predicating any forecast oh phase 8 until at minuscule lead time.

I get that. The proximity of the phases and guidance didn’t help here. 7 is one of our warmest in Jan, and the wave progression was 7 to 8 around go time. 
 

I bit on it bc the synoptic look across major guidance matched 8, but it’s all trended away from that quickly.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I mentioned posted this yesterday to Paul/Wiz. He said it was pretty plausible, I was kind of shocked at that, but then again I’m not the MET. 

It's not impossible....phases are usually flawed and complicated...odds are that it will be imperfect, but probably not in that precise manner given the lead time left. That doesn't have to mean we get a blizzard, though.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Jeezum crow, low of -6F 

wasn’t expecting that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I get that. The proximity of the phases and guidance didn’t help here. 7 is one of our warmest in Jan, and the wave progression was 7 to 8 around go time. 
 

I bit on it bc the synoptic look across major guidance matched 8, but it’s all trended away from that quickly.

I added this after: . (Phase 8) it's become a unicorn since the west Pacific warmed. This is why. 

[tavwtby]

-4.2 this morning looking forward to this weekend

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Yes it's different than two days ago, but I jumped on more energy phasing out west 36 hours ago.. I knew we all had a chance still 4 days out, might go well north like the pope says, stays where we are not, or ticks back south the next few days.. Odds are quite high for several inches areawide however.. 

Yes, good call.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's not impossible....phases are usually flawed and complicated...odds are that it will be imperfect, but probably not in that precise manner given the lead time left. That doesn't have to mean we get a blizzard, though.

My meaning to Paul was, at first this was just a huge overrunning event., then all of a sudden a phase was introduced, and a potential coastal was starting to emerge. Now that seems to be the idea for areas further east. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s a nasty coastal front just north and west of verbatim. Coke streamers here, but someone on the other side of that will get buried.

It's like the pre Xmas 2024 event, but stronger storm and better airmass.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

We have more wiggle room in SNE for a significant event. As you can see, the highest odds for 6" are Baltimore to Boston, however the highest odds on EPS for 12" + is over DC more boom or bust there..  While we have a few different ways to get widespread 6-12"+ .. Theres going to be some amazing soundings coming out soon, and you know we will get Nam'd with a 15-30" run by tomorrow morning. 

 

[mreaves]

5 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Historical these people are not prepared for what is about to hit them 

We joke about stocking up on bread and milk but those folk probably should. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

MJO has actually really amped up of late.

https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt