January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z GFS trying to make this interesting on 1/18-19....not gonna quite get there but that was a pretty good sharpening of the trough compared to previous runs. 

I'm still watching....reason why I held off on a blog today.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

I can't speak for everyone but I suspect if asked today, most would be happy with an average Feb & March even if they finished below normal for the season.

For me it would depend how we get there....several 4" events? Pass. 

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I’ve yet to trust the ICON 

I’ve yet to ever even look at it 

[weatherwiz]

46 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Icon is doing better than the gfs

That’s like saying the Giants are better than the Jets 

[MJO812]

Weenie alert on the long range gfs

[CoastalWx]

Man that storm on the gfs is a pants tent 

[cleetussnow]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weenie alert on the long range gfs

Uh a storm at 270?  Not even trackable.  

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

Uh a storm at 270?  Not even trackable.  

Not at all but the cpc just put this out.

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I’ve yet to ever even look at it 

You should check this one just academically because it's what we were talking about earlier in getting the vort more S - immediately you see that improve.  

There's definitely an odd moisture deficit going on... It's almost like we're getting a negative feed-back over the continent because of the lack of cyclone traffic.   These potent but compressed waves are failing to generate inflow pooling of theta-e into the S, whereby subsequent wave traffic have that source available to them.   Something like this ... that ICON solution should be exploding frankly  - it may also be that it's at the time horizon of the models outer edge too... 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man that storm on the gfs is a pants tent 

Scooter high special

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not at all but the cpc just put this out.

Cold-cut-cold?

[MJO812]

Just now, dendrite said:

Cold-cut-cold?

Whats cutting in this pattern ?

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Scooter high special

Western PA with over 50 inches lol

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Cold-cut-cold?

Revenge is like serving cold-cuts 

[Typhoon Tip]

Unlikely, unfortunately 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Whats cutting in this pattern ?

Did you look at the 12z euro for that period?

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Whats cutting in this pattern ?

Could easily have that 1/24-25 system cut. Depends how much phasing you get. Keeping the shortwave kind of separated from the main PV as long as possible is essential to getting a huge overrunning storm like we see in the 18z run….check out the 12z run if you want to see how it cuts. 

[ma blizzard]

get that pv lobe to phase in sooner and its probably the best  cinema of the year 

[MJO812]

Just now, dendrite said:

Did you look at the 12z euro for that period?

Eps ? Euro has been dog shit in the long range only to trend colder. 

[Typhoon Tip]

altho, funny ... I just got done with a lecture point about theta-e deficits and this panel way out there turns around and demos a magnificent source...   LOL

[dendrite]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Eps ? Euro has been dog shit in the long range only to trend colder. 

Whatever. It was in jest anyway. But like Will said, can’t totally rule it out.

[MJO812]

As long as the press is there , we should be fine especially down here in the ocean. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Whats cutting in this pattern ?

I can’t tell you how many times you have said that only to rain. 

[MJO812]

Just now, dendrite said:

Whatever. It was in jest anyway. But like Will said, can’t totally rule it out.

I mean its the gfs in weenie range. Caution .

[dendrite]

NYC is never fine at d11

[MJO812]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I can’t tell you how many times you have said that only to rain. 

Man what has happened to you? No more a true weenie.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Whatever. It was in jest anyway. But like Will said, can’t totally rule it out.

SE ridge does flex. Hopefully the boundary over NYC

[MJO812]

Just now, dendrite said:

NYC is never fine at d11

Especially lately 

 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Man what has happened to you? No more a true weenie.

You can be a weenie and actually be realistic too. As many have said, there is cut potential.

[MJO812]

Western PA gets over 50 inches. LOL