January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[kdxken]

Nice trend the rain isn't going to amount to much. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Not mild next week 

[ORH_wxman]

Next week would def be a nice bonus if we can get that wave to blow up on the frontal boundary draped just east of us. There may be another threat behind that on MLK weekend too it seems…but we’re gonna need to figure out the first one

 

[tavwtby]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Next week would def be a nice bonus if we can get that wave to blow up on the frontal boundary draped just east of us. There may be another threat behind that on MLK weekend too it seems…but we’re gonna need to figure out the first one

 

lot of members just outside the BM, if we can trend those NW we can all have some fun 

[Damage In Tolland]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Next week would def be a nice bonus if we can get that wave to blow up on the frontal boundary draped just east of us. There may be another threat behind that on MLK weekend too it seems…but we’re gonna need to figure out the first one

 

Nah mild all week 

[UnitedWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nah mild all week 

So much for jogging in shorts Been the trend all season to lean cold

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, UnitedWx said:

So much for jogging in shorts Been the trend all season to lean cold

Yup..the tenor. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nah mild all week 

Well he's not wrong it is a pack melting 38-48 degrees the next 5-6 days for all of SNE .. already lost 75% of my solid 6" pack.. but if we can cash in on that epic look starting next Thursday who cares, it's a welcome melt off and clean up.. 

[Bryan63]

Time to lock this one up, nothing to change here.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Well he's not wrong it is a pack melting 38-48 degrees the next 5-6 days for all of SNE .. already lost 75% of my solid 6" pack.. but if we can cash in on that epic look starting next Thursday who cares, it's a welcome melt off and clean up.. 

how’s it looking after MLK day…that was the real time that we were eyeing..as Will said, anything before would be a big bonus. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

how’s it looking after MLK day…that was the real time that we were eyeing..as Will said, anything before would be a big bonus. 

Solid look for overrunning still .. very cold in canada especially EPS

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

how’s it looking after MLK day…that was the real time that we were eyeing..as Will said, anything before would be a big bonus. 

MLK weekend itself looks like there is potential. 

[CoastalWx]

28 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Well he's not wrong it is a pack melting 38-48 degrees the next 5-6 days for all of SNE .. already lost 75% of my solid 6" pack.. but if we can cash in on that epic look starting next Thursday who cares, it's a welcome melt off and clean up.. 

yeah, it’s fairly mild until like Thursday night lol. He can enjoy jogging on the bare ground  again.

[CoastalWx]

It’s just good to see that the deterministic models finally trying to show something out of this pattern. But yeah, I’m with Will, if we can sneak in something a week from now that would be a pretty awesome bonus.

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

yeah, it’s fairly mild until like Thursday night lol. He can enjoy jogging on the background again.

The ice this winter has been tough. Roads everyday this week just ice everywhere 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if you think what i said implies that i don’t think climate change is real and has an impact, you must be mistaken. the over attribution is just a lazy cop out most of the time 

Well said. I think CC is playing a part in the absence of winter weather over the past several years, but it's not "the new norm"....it's just accentuating and protracting these oscillations. Just my take...I think it also played a role in the snow-blitz of 2015.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Euro AI likes the 18th.  Big 'un

I like that period better......beyond mid-month.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s just good to see that the deterministic models finally trying to show something out of this pattern. But yeah, I’m with Will, if we can sneak in something a week from now that would be a pretty awesome bonus.

There will be something of significance this month...we aren't making it to February in single-digits.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The ice this winter has been tough. Roads everyday this week just ice everywhere 

Yeah icy again this morning. Black ice of yore. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The ice this winter has been tough. Roads everyday this week just ice everywhere 

Cold, icy and windy has characterized this winter so far.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I was just mentioning in the ENSO thread, we are going to stretch the shit out of the PV during the second half of January, then the death-blow will come in February....we should end up splitting that b!tch in two. The +TNH setting up next week is the precursor to that major wave 2 disruption that will culminate in a February split.

We are going places pattern wise, and the snow should follow suite.

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was just mentioning in the ENSO thread, we are going to stretch the shit out of the PV during the second half of January, then the death-blow will come in February....we should end up splitting that b!tch in two.

What do you mean with the death-blow in February ( sorry... Not sure if you mean it's gone or it's gonna be a doozy )

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

What do you mean with the death-blow in February ( sorry... Not sure if you mean it's gone or it's gonna be a doozy )

I mean that that PV is going to ultimately incur a severe disruption that will end in a split, after the stretching of the next few weeks.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't mean "deathblow" to winter...as in winter over; quite the opposite. It's just getting started, as frustrating as it's been.

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Cold, icy and windy has characterized this winter so far.

Tenor of the season!

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There will be something of significance this month...we aren't making it to February in single-digits.

I just want this 6” monkey thing off my back. Since Feb 2022.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I just want Kev's 6” monkey to slap off my back. Since Feb 2022.

Man, no wonder you've both been so cranky...4 years...

[dryslot]

Well that was a short thaw period.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was just mentioning in the ENSO thread, we are going to stretch the shit out of the PV during the second half of January, then the death-blow will come in February....we should end up splitting that b!tch in two. The +TNH setting up next week is the precursor to that major wave 2 disruption that will culminate in a February split.

We are going places pattern wise, and the snow should follow suite.

I think spiking the MJO amplitude in phase 7 later this month would further bolster confidence in this outcome, but my confidence is already pretty high.

[ORH_wxman]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Cold, icy and windy has characterized this winter so far.

Shit snow totals but I’m on like day 33 of snow cover, lol. I don’t think I’ve had more than 4” OTG at any time either. Normally 33 days at this point would mean a great start to the winter with likely multiple warning events, but not this year. As much as I hate brown frozen ground, if we are going to get a decent storm next Friday, then I wouldn’t mind starting clean.