January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yup…textbook events are very hard to come by. Many weather events, including big events (whether severe or winter) generally aren’t textbook. 

For sure. I think lots of times we all can get hung up on this. As we all know, snowfall systems are so very nuanced, that sometimes an area(ours lately) can just get into a rut, and can continually get porked.  While up steam or downstream gets slammed. It’s Just some bad dam ju ju.  Eventually that will change, as it always does. And another region will spend some time in the shit barrel. 

[CoastalWx]

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Just give me a damned storm like this....doesn't need to be a fooking Kocin cookbook pattern with perfect ridge placements....this damned ridge was like hundreds of miles offshore the PAC.....we can't buy these kind of systems lately and it has nothing to do with phasing or fast flow....this type of system was fast flow embedded shbortwave. 

 

 

10”ish in that. Great event. 

[CoastalWx]

Jeez I don’t hate the 18z gfs. The end of the run is what you like to see for a cold miller an or overrunning. Big time antecedent airmass with a nice low coming into the Plains. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Dude look at this shit. What an absurd bullshit reading for great barirngton.  

I actually just saved that graphic....lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Honestly, I think a way CC can help is you'll get these mega juiced systems when the longwave pattern lines up correctly....you'll have some season where it goes bonkers (ala 2015 in E MA)....all the extra moisture just getting freight-trained into New England with a cold dome overhead. 

I agree, but gonna have to wait this out....CC is definitely more feast or famine....but shit, someone tell Mother Nature it's time to eat.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I actually just saved that graphic....lol

62” lol. Come on man. So here’s something funny. In HS when I volunteered at the NWS, I remember one of them commented they slanted their blizz 96 total to make the public more sympathetic because of the tornado earlier that summer lol. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's been a pretty big switch this year with the WPO keeping on wanting to revert to a big negative phase. Last year, we were able to break the streak of it being largely positive, but it was still not strongly negative....it was enough with the -EPO to give us slightly BN temps. 

 

But this year, we had a raging -WPO much of December, and even when it flipped early here in January, it quickly wants to set up shop again next week. 

Yea, something clearly has changed....we just need to wait on the snow get the memo.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

62” lol. Come on man. So here’s something funny. In HS when I volunteered at the NWS, I remember one of them commented they slanted their blizz 96 total to make the public more sympathetic because of the tornado earlier that summer lol. 

Yea, that's not accurate.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, that's not accurate.

Maybe Kevin had an apartment there.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Actually... "DE"phasing is more the problem ... the flow splitting because the +PNA ridge is biased west is actually blanketing the entire region down stream over the continent in a negative interference - it's just another form of shear stressing

 

100%...same crap as last season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Maybe Kevin had an apartment there.

I think that dude moved to Lunenburg

[Damage In Tolland]

Who had 62”?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Who had 62”?

I bet Norwell had like 55" in 2015.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I would like to see phase 8...the MJO has still had an allergy to phase 8 over the course of the past couple of seasons, despite the cold, which is part of the reason why the haven't seen the snow.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Jeez I don’t hate the 18z gfs. The end of the run is what you like to see for a cold miller an or overrunning. Big time antecedent airmass with a nice low coming into the Plains. 

Only 16+ days away. We can do it.

[tavwtby]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

62” lol. Come on man. So here’s something funny. In HS when I volunteered at the NWS, I remember one of them commented they slanted their blizz 96 total to make the public more sympathetic because of the tornado earlier that summer lol. 

was thinking same, if barkhamsted got 48", which I question as well, Great Barrington isn't that far away to have 14" more, 5+ feet of snow depth? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

At least Mjo P6 and P7 are conducive to AK ridging and some blocking. We’ll have that later in Jan

Yea, I feel like the real window starts when the MJO hits 7....like 24th ish....

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Only 16+ days away. We can do it.

lol I mean the look in general

[alex]

It’s nice to be home 

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s funny . The 7-10 day torch in New England turned into an ice event in SNE and snow NNE yesterday, freezing fog and icing tonight 2 days of 40’s and rain SNE today and tomorrow , a cold rain ending as snow SNE Sat into Sunday with ice and snow NNE to a day below freezing Monday before another day or two around 40. While the rest of the country furnaced. Our area of the country finds every way to fight off extended warmth in winter . 

Today was torchelicious.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Today was torchelicious.

It’s pretty much close the shades here until a week from today or tomorrow. 

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Today was torchelicious.

47⁰ here, shady spots still have around 2 inches....full coverage otherwise, tomorrow should do it though, anything with sun will be swiss cheese. It is already down to 27, so that should help freeze it solid abit. We have had 3+ inches of coverage since the 26th, can't complain about that, especially in my part of SNE.

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

47⁰ here, shady spots still have around 2 inches....full coverage otherwise, tomorrow should do it though, anything with sun will be swiss cheese. It is already down to 27, so that should help freeze it solid abit. We have had 3+ inches of coverage since the 26th, can't complain about that, especially in my part of SNE.

I bought a lawn rake at Rocky's and spent a few hours of yard work.  South Coast January's of yore.

[dendrite]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Dude look at this shit. What an absurd bullshit reading for great barirngton.  

Lazy ass observer…never legitimately measured depth and accounted for compaction. They just kept adding new snow values to the pack. lol

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Lazy ass observer…never legitimately measured depth and accounted for compaction. They just kept adding new snow values to the pack. lol

[Spanks45]

5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I bought a lawn rake at Rocky's and spent a few hours of yard work.  South Coast January's of yore.

Yeah, this year is definitely not the norm....I would typically either have a mud mess or a brown glacier by now

[Torch Tiger]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Lazy ass observer…never legitimately measured depth and accounted for compaction. They just kept adding new snow values to the pack. lol

why are they official obs? (if so)

[dendrite]

17 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

why are they official obs? (if so)

There’s a lot of bad COOP data out there. I assume they just gave the observers the benefit of the doubt in most cases. 

[Torch Tiger]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

There’s a lot of bad COOP data out there. I assume they just gave the observers the benefit of the doubt in most cases. 

brutal. Yeah I know there is always questionable if not bad data, but there it is so obvious it should not exist. Lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, dendrite said:

There’s a lot of bad COOP data out there. I assume they just gave the observers the benefit of the doubt in most cases. 

Yet BOX tossed my March 2018 measurement....asses.